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Financial-analytical portal ProFinance.Ru

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The Russian External debt in the second quarter of 2019 have increased by $13.513 billion, or 2.9%, to $482.362 billion, according to information posted on the website of the CBR. A significant role was played by the acquisition by non-residents of sovereign securities denominated in Russian roubles and in foreign currencies, and increased indebtedness on accrued, but unpaid dividends season. External debt of General government increased in the second quarter to $11.012 billion, or 20.6%, to $64.341 billion e ... read more...

"the Level of interest rates is now increasingly associated with the key rate, but I would like to draw attention to a more fundamental bundle rates in the economy with inflation, and not a key interest rate. ... Artificial reduction of the key rate will lead to lower interest rates in the economy, it needs to be well understood. The main path to reduce interest rates in the economy is reducing inflation. Consistently low inflation will make more affordable loans, including long-term credits which are necessary for the development of the economy ... read more...

"We estimate the transition to target, our target of 4% in the first half of 2020. Could it happen sooner, in fact, in 2019? In our base scenario - no. But, of course, can be disinflationary factors, in our view, a disposable nature, for example, the strengthening of the exchange rate and lower food prices - any kind of factors that can lead to the disinflationary influence, and we do not exclude that this may occur. But I would like to say that this is unlikely to impact on ... read more...

"with regard to the signals before the meeting of the Board of Directors, it is our usual practice is not to give signals. We gave signals, when considered necessary a little to correct market expectations when they saw that these market expectations seriously deviate from our expectations. Therefore, any special practices or special rules to give signals before a meeting of the Board of Directors have not been, and we are not going back there" she said during a press conference. The issues of monetary p ... read more...

"by the Way, mention the fact that we can enter the market and OFZ buy OFZ, the tools we have for a long time. In 2008 and 2014, we did not use them, and I don't think we will have to use it, but do not exclude that if the circumstances will develop in such a way that we will need to use it, he's always there", - said Nabiullina. "But we can use other tools, including to allow our financial institutions, in order to have time adaptirovat ... read more...

"We really clarified our expectations at the time can develop conditions to reduce our key interest rate. We used to say: the end of 2019 - beginning of 2020, now talking in 2019. We are not willing to give more specific information, more specific information for when this might happen," she said, noting that it will depend on how the economy will develop, inflation. "A lot of uncertainties, risks, of which I have already said, we will therefore ... read more...

"From the point of view of housing in General we do not see any preinflation the effects of those decisions have been taken", - said E. Nabiullina. Also there was a growth of tariffs for the disposal of municipal solid waste. "It really has been a greater increase of these tariffs. According to our estimates, in February the annual growth rate of these tariffs amounted to 51%," - said the head of the Central Bank. She explained that these rates have the differentiation across regions. "In the basket for our CPI, these rates are not too small ... read more...

The European Central Bank (ECB) has sharply lowered its growth forecasts for the economy and consumer prices in the Eurozone in 2019, noting that inflation is unlikely to return to the target level of "just below 2% per annum" until the end of 2021. The ECB President Mario Draghi during a press conference on the outcome of the March meeting, described the revision as "substantial." Now the Central Bank expects a rise of GDP in 2019 from 1.1% projected in December to 1.7%, forecast for 2020 was reduced from 1.7% to 1.6%, 2021 - confirm ... read more...

The Index of consumer confidence in the fourth quarter of 2018 compared to the third quarter fell by 3 percentage points and amounted to minus 17%, Rosstat said on Thursday.The decline in consumer confidence due to negative dynamics of the majority of its components. The greatest impact of the deterioration of the subjective views of people regarding changes in the Russian economy for the year, said the Agency. The index of expected changes in the economic situation ... read more...

Direct investments of nonresidents in the non-banking sector of the Russian economy in 2018 was $1.9 billion, which is 14 times less than in the same period 2017 ($27.1 billion), follows from estimates of the balance of payments of the Russian Federation, published on the website of the Bank of Russia. Including in the fourth quarter of 2018 a net outflow of direct investment amounted to $0.9 billion after an outflow in the third quarter of $5.4 billion and inflows of $6.2 billion in the first quarter and $2.0 billion in the second quarter. The volume of portfolio investments of nonresidents in acti ... read more...

Net capital outflow from Russia in 2018 increased 2.7 times compared to the previous year, and amounted to 67.5 billion dollars, according to materials of the Bank of Russia. "The positive balance of the financial transactions of the private sector with non-residents amounted to 67.5 billion US dollars (25.2 billion U.S. dollars in 2017)," - said in comments of the Central Bank. "last year continued reduction of external liabilities of banks and simultaneously increased their foreign assets against the background of greater income ... read more...

Russia's GDP in the first half of 2018 has increased compared to the same period last year by 1.6%. Such an assessment issued on Friday the Federal state statistics service (Rosstat). Last week Rosstat has published the first score of the second quarter of 2018 (no publication data for the first half) - an increase of 1.8% after rising 1.3% in the first quarter. While the Ministry of economic development estimated the growth of Russia's GDP in I half of 2018 1.7% based on the new data of Rosstat, industry (Rosstat ser ... read more...

The Impact from the soccer world Cup on inflation in Russia will be negligible, the contribution of this event to the country's GDP growth in 2018 will be 0.1-0.2 percentage points, said at a press conference the Chairman of the Bank of Russia Elvira Nabiullina. "I want to congratulate all of the important for our country's development - the start of the world Cup. According to our estimates, the impact on inflation will be insignificant, only short-term in certain cities and for certain goods and services primarily consumed tour ... read more...

The Effect on inflation from tax changes in Russia will be exhausted in early 2020, said at a press conference the Chairman of the Bank of Russia Elvira Nabiullina. According to her, the inflation forecast was updated to reflect a number of factors. Foremost among them is the proposed tax changes. "Although the VAT increase planned from 2019, it is possible that already this year there may be some proinflationary effect through changes in inflation expectations and a quicker adjustment of prices. As a result, ... read more...

The Bank of Russia is not yet able to move fully to a neutral monetary policy implemented inflation risks forced to maintain a small stiffness of the OST, said at a press conference the head of the Central Bank Elvira Nabiullina. "Currently we can not make those remaining 1-2 steps on the key rate, which would allow us to fully move to neutral monetary conditions. Implemented inflation risks are forcing us at the moment to keep a small but stiffness d ... read more...