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Daily analytical reviews of the Forex market

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American Nonfarm know how to surprise: as a rule, one of the components of the key data on the labor market out of the General track of the forecasted levels and highlights the ambiguity of the situation. For example, a month ago amid record growth in the number employed, the unemployment rate unexpectedly rose to four percent. Today, we had the reverse situation – a reduction in the unemployment rate to 3.8% (fcast 3.9%), the rate of growth of employment in non-agricultural sector fell to a record-low values in 20 thousand (the forecast of growth of 185 thousand) in the private sector of the economy – up to 25 thousand (the forecast 187 thousand) and the production sector – up to 4 thousand (the forecast of 10 thousand). This turn of events discourage...

If the fed makes long pauses in the process of normalizing monetary policy, and ECB softens it, then it would seem that EUR/USD is defined one way. Way down. So initially happened after the press conference, Mario Draghi, during which was announced the launch date of the long-term refinancing program reduced forecasts for GDP and inflation and stated that rates will remain at current levels at least until the end of 2019. The European Central Bank has given the bears more than the expected of him, however, the success of sellers on the fact it was not as impressive as expected. Yes, the market was not expecting specifics on the LTRO. Yes, there was reason to believe that the ECB will shift the timing of changes in rates in the later period. Yes, reduced...

Big TF: With Aug last year, the trend of gold rising. Analysis of the wave structure shows its incompleteness. In recent months, the rate is adjusted. Small TF: a Price reduction of 20 February ends formed since the beginning of the year correction model having the form of expanding triangle. Price reached the upper border of the strong pivot area. the Prognosis and recommendations: Despite the fact that reversal signal there, and continue the current correction, gold is expected. Wave algorithm indicates the imminent restoration of the upward course. Traders need to monitor the emerging reversal signal to search for the entrance to a long position. resistance: - 1375.0/1380.0 - 1315.0/1320.0 support Area: - 1280.0/1275.0 explanation of the drawings: In a...

Big TF: mid-2016 price fluctuations of the pair are determined by the algorithm of the ascending wave. Launched at the beginning of the current year the upward movement of the cross completed the correction phase of the trend wave, starting the next stage. Small TF: Bullish wave from January 3 is developing as a impetus. Over the past week the price of the pair decreased, ending in February formed a hidden correction. Price has reached strong support, but the reversal signal on the chart is not observed. the Prognosis and recommendations: the downside Potential of the pair is close to exhaustion. In the upcoming week within the estimated support, the expected reversal and the beginning of the price rise. Traders are advised to monitor the signals of buying...

ECB on 7 March dealt a blow to the Euro: ECB sharply downgraded its growth forecast for the Eurozone from 1.7% to 1.1% in 2019. The ECB announced that from September will begin a new program of liquidity injections into the Eurozone economy. the Euro fell sharply, breaking below key levels down in the area 1.1215 - 1.1230. on Friday, the markets are waiting for the employment report in the US - possible new round of Euro and a strong rebound up. We keep selling euros from 1.1315, stop at breakeven. the Material has been provided by InstaForex company - www.instaforex.com

According to the report the U.S. Geological survey (USGS), which presents data on production of silver in the world by the end of 2018, the global reserves of the precious metal may end in a few decades. The situation may change with the opening of new large deposits, experts say. In review, USGS noted that last year global production of the white metal rose by 0.7% to 27,000 tonnes. The largest producers of silver are Mexico (6,100 tons) and Peru (4300 tonnes). The most significant increase in production of metals in 2018, was observed in Russia and Argentina – more than 7%. Silver production in the United States, on the contrary, for the first time in many years was below 1000 tonnes. The largest reserves of the precious metal remained in Poland and Peru...

Trend analysis (Fig. 1). on Friday, the price before the news will move up. The first top target 1.3135 – sliding level 23.6% (yellow dotted line). Fig. 1 (daily chart). Complex analysis: - indicator – up. - Fibonacci – up; - the volume – up; - candlestick analysis – up; - trend analysis – down; - Bollinger bands – down; - week chart - down. Overall conclusion: on Friday, the price before the news will move up. The first top target 1.3135 – sliding level 23.6% (yellow dotted line). the Material has been provided by InstaForex company - www.instaforex.com

Trend analysis (Fig. 1). on Friday, the price before the news can make the top move. The first top target 1.1235 – sliding level 23.6% (blue dotted line). Fig. 1 (daily chart). Complex analysis: - indicator – up. - Fibonacci – up; - the volume – down; - candlestick analysis – up; - trend analysis – down; - Bollinger bands – down; - weekly chart - the up. Overall conclusion: on Friday, the price before the news can make the top move. The first top target 1.1235 – sliding level 23.6% (blue dotted line). the Material has been provided by InstaForex company - www.instaforex.com

Overview: on 7 March, the GBP/USD pair decreased to 90 b.p. so there are all grounds to conclude that the continuation of the construction of a new downtrend, or rather its first wave. News background for the pair remains negative, since no positive messages on issues of Brexit in the media is not supplied. The EU and UK continue to negotiate or continue to create the appearance of negotiations, because the public knows nothing about the new terms of the agreement. Coming March 12, when Parliament will start voting on the options for Brexit. These days will be for the pound the next period X, after which can be taken the fateful decision. the Goal for purchases: 1,3348 – 0,0%. Purpose: 1,3001 – 38.2% according to Fibonacci 1,2891 – 50.0% according to...

Overview: the Auction Thursday, March 7, was completed for EUR/USD a decrease of 115 b.p. Such was the market's reaction to dovish rhetoric from Mario Draghi and company. The results of the ECB meeting have been disappointing. Lowered forecasts for GDP and inflation, announced the launch of the LTRO program, which means new lending of commercial banks. Options the Euro was not simple. The wave count, so looks convincing. All 5 waves downward trend built, and unsuccessful attempt to break the level to 127.2% suggests at least a pullback and a maximum about the end part of the trend, which took the form of a triangle. the Goal: 1,1184 – 127.2% according to Fibonacci 1,1119 – 161.8% according to Fibonacci Purpose for purchase: 1,1419 – 0,0%. General...

4-hour timeframe Technical data: Senior linear regression channel: direction – up. the Youngest linear regression channel: direction – up. the Moving average (20; smoothed) – down. CCI: -136.7444 GBP/USD resumed its downward movement, unable to overcome the moving average line. Thus, this time the pair was logical from the point of view of fundamental component. As we have already noted, a compelling reason for the strengthening of the British currency as there was not. However, the lb from time to time shows growth based on rumors and expectations. Then, when the rumors and expectations are not met, resumed the pound. New posts on the topic of Brexit for the last day at the disposal of traders has not been received. Thus, the last important information is...

4-hour timeframe Technical data: Senior linear regression channel: direction – down. the Youngest linear regression channel: direction – sideways. the Moving average (20; smoothed) – down. CCI: -181.2993 Currency pair EUR/USD on Friday, March 8, has resumed the downward movement intensified after the announcement of the results of the ECB meeting and press conference. The main results of the meetings, began lowering its forecasts for inflation and GDP, the announcement of the launch of the LTRO program - long-term credit banks, and the transfer completed period of low interest rates for at least the end of 2019. Overall absolutely disastrous for the Euro session controller, which only confirms the fears of market participants about the recession in the...

Before the publication of employment report conflicting data, increasing the uncertainty in the markets and could lead to a sharp increase in volatility during the day. Quarterly report showed that the threat of a slowdown in wage growth is still low – productivity in the 4th quarter of 2018 grew by 1.9%, slightly below the result of the 3rd quarter, but higher than the forecast 1.6%, 2.0% increase in the cost of labor, this indicator reflects the costs of employers, and its growth indicates an upward trend in wages. At the same time, the volume of assets of households and nonprofit organizations declined by 3.73 trillion, the highest decline in the history of observations, even in the 4th quarter of 2008 the loss amounted to 3.62 trillion. The main reason...

The Euro has declined substantially in tandem with the us dollar, and also lost a number of positions against other major currencies. Despite the fact that the pace of economic growth in the Eurozone accelerated at the end of 2018, the European Central Bank has revised its attitude to future monetary policy, which led to the weakening of the Euro. According to the statistics Agency of the EU, Eurozone GDP in the 4th quarter of 2018 grew by 0.9% in annual terms, after rising by 0.6% in the 3rd quarter. Initial assessment was at the level of 0.8%. the report stated that the main support for the economy has been export growth, increased government spending and increased consumer spending. Compared to the 4th quarter of 2017 Eurozone GDP grew by only 1.1%. will...

4h the EUR/USD Pair on 4-hour chart has resumed the process of falling yesterday and completed the closing under the level of correction 100.0% - 1,1218 on a new grid of Fibo levels. Thus, on March 8 the process of falling of quotations can be continued towards the next resistance levels to 127.2% - 1,1120. Divergence is not evident today. The rebound of the pair from the level of Fibo to 127.2% work in favor of the currency of the EU and some growth towards the correctional level of 100.0%. the Fibo Grid built on the extremes of 12 November 2018 and 10 January 2019. Daily On a 24-hour chart the pair has completed the closing under the level of correction to 127.2% - 1,1285. In the end, the drop in prices continues towards the next correction level 161.8...