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Business / Finance

ProFinance.Ru news and comments on the situation on the Forex market

Financial-analytical portal ProFinance.Ru

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Many experts speaking about the prospects of the ruble in the second quarter, noted the risks from seasonal deterioration in the current account balance. Seasonality has not been canceled, but this year the decline will occur from higher levels. The Bank of Russia reported that according to preliminary data, the current account surplus for the first four months of 2019, reaching $45.5 billion, which is 15.5% higher than in the same period last year. the Catalyst for the improvement was the increase in the surplus of trade Balan ... read more...

To date 2019 was very good for risk assets, from stocks to credit instruments, and assets emerging markets (EM) joined with the main wave, with the exception of the em currencies, which have recently declined. Among the comments made during the widening of the debate on this issue, some Fund managers have stressed their growing concern about the risk of a global slowdown. The fact that since the end of January courses em currencies began to decline, suggests that concerns remain ... read more...

Economists Institute of international Finance (IIF) that optimism about the success in trade negotiations the United States and China is premature. So currency traders too early laid on the signing of the agreement. Now between the two countries signed a truce until March 1. To this date, Washington and Beijing need to resolve their differences. So, on Thursday published on the CNBC article it was reported that before the spring personal meeting between the leaders of the United States and China malovanaya ... read more...

The Recent weakening of currencies of emerging economies offers investors the opportunity to invest in the assets of the Emerging Markets (EM), said Morgan Stanley strategist Andres Jaime, published in the Monday review. the Bank has its own model of an estimation of efficiency of investments in the segment EM. This model is now proposing to increase the portfolio share of bonds in emerging markets by 5-10%. Long position recommends the strengthening of the Russian ruble and Turkish Lira, Brazilian R ... read more...

Analysts at VTB Capital said Thursday that the exchange rate of the ruble against the dollar are close to fair values. In spite of their experts Promsvyazbank (PSB) believe that the Russian currency is undervalued by 5 or even 7%. They are predicting the ruble rise to 63 or 65 to the dollar in the 1st quarter of 2019, arguing their point of view because the surplus on the current account will have a Russian currency support. on Thursday 27 December, the ruble fell against the dollar by 1.4% to 69.67. This is the worst value since September 12. We will remind, 11 ... read more...

Federal reserve system of the United States in 2018 raised the rate on Federal funds 4 times. Its current range is 2.00 — 2.25% per annum. As widely expected by the market, in December the rate will be raised for the fifth time up to 2.25 — 2.50% per annum. Some Central banks of emerging economies strive to maintain in their favor, the gap in yields amid fed rate hike United States. The regulator of Indonesia has increased the REPO rate from 4.25% to 6.00%. The reserve Bank of South Africa 22 Nov decided of had increased when it came ... read more...

Dynamics of oil prices has long ceased to be the main driver of the Russian currency, the movement of which in recent months is determined solely by expectations of when and who will enter against Russia new sanctions. In early November, on the eve of intermediate Congressional elections, the ruble fell significantly, but then, when it became clear that the Americans are unlikely to have time to do something before the New year, regained the lost ground. This Monday, the Russian currency again came under pressure because of what happened Naka ... read more...

Promsvyazbank Analyst Michael Poddubsky believes that concluded between the US and China at least a framework agreement, involving the decline of tensions over trade relations, may provoke a surge of interest in risky assets. Accordingly, the failure of the talks will probably worsen the mood of investors across most asset classes due to negative growth forecasts for the world economy. Recall that last night Donald trump tweeted about the cancellation of the meeting with Vladimir Putin, ... read more...

Movement of the cable remains choppy, but the British currency successfully climbs — news about the progress in negotiations between the UK and the EU Bracito provided a palpable surge of optimism, and the rhetoric of the Bank of England was quite favorable. the Reason for joy gave the bulls an article in the Times, which reported that negotiators had reached a provisional agreement on all aspects of future partnership in the service sector, which would allow London to avoid serious turmoil in the banking sector ... read more...

Stocks are falling along with the US dollar has increased the degree of global tensions. Gold and bonds are rising in price. The S&P 500 index has strengthened its decline after the biggest weekly drop since March: President Donald trump on Sunday threatened to impose new duties on imports from China. Tech stocks lead the drop in the markets. European and Asian stocks fell after warnings at the weekend about global instability in the economy at the meeting of heads of financial departments under the auspices of the IMF. ... read more...

In recent years, the economy of India has seen a steep rise in oil prices. The country was forced to go to the United States and refuse to purchase Iranian oil since November, when it will effect us sanctions against the Islamic Republic. At the same time India is trying to exert pressure on Saudi Arabia, Recalling yesterday about the need to keep the promise to increase oil production (up to 12 million barrels per day). Against the background of problems in the economy, the inflationary proposal (because of rising prices for raw materials) ... read more...

Do Not shoot the musician, he plays as best he can. Don't blame the market frivolousness is that he shies from side to side. Just speculators need a reason to move quotes, because without movement there is no life - roulette Forex is not working. After significant growth, the ruble again went down - not even save the Sberbank and. about 63 in October. Today the reason for the sales of Russian assets given - paradoxically - all the same new threats of new sanctions. I think this album ... read more...

And, indeed, it is amazing. In fact, from the point of view of Sberbank, Mr. Oreshkin, Open, BCS, Deutsche Bank and the other authorities, "embarked on the trend" in their forecasts, the ruble needs to continue - 64, 63, 62, 60, or even 55. It may be worth it to wait a bit? Possible. However, the ruble falls. For us this is not surprising. The ruble has sat at its previous top, leaned on OpenAL and went on the trend - the dollar is up. And that would not go if the dollar is rising PR ... read more...

Company Pictet Asset Management is "very optimistic about the Japan" in the next six to twelve months, as the national stock market has an attractive valuation levels, the domestic companies are not leveraged and interest rates are expected to rise, says Luca Paolini, chief strategist of the firm. "In Japan there is no political risk", and the Bank of Japan (BOJ) continues to print money, said Paolini in an interview with Bloomberg. Now is also a good time. ... read more...

Russia is a strong player in the oil market. After years of fruitful cooperation in the framework of OPEC, the country has improved its reputation and increased its influence. If the world political arena of the Russian Federation is experiencing an obvious shortage of supporters, the energy market remains one area where the country can advance his position. US threatens Russia with new sanctions are afraid of the ban on the purchase of government bonds, and the refusal of the Russian banks access to international Finance market. Russia ... read more...