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Whether you Like it or not, but it seems that global trade firm step moves to full paralysis. Total world debt, estimated at 200 trillion in U.S. Bank notes, begins increasingly to exert its influence on the vast majority of inhabitants of our planet. Someone can say that the current situation still should not be regarded as the outbreak of a new wave of the global financial crisis, but it seems that it is not so. The debt bubble began to burst, and stop this process halfway would hardly be possible.
Convulsive attempts by the authorities to keep from falling us stock indexes are nothing more than the desire to make a good mine at bad game. In addition, they have long been detached from real economy and cannot be considered as the objective indicators. Rampant speculation to a large extent, although not completely replaced the reality. And she sometimes still breaks out. In particular, the fall in prices for practically all types used in the industry of raw materials. In an economic downturn for the production of different goods do not need such a quantity of oil, gas, wood, construction materials and metals as before. No raw materials, no finished products, and, therefore, no need and such a large number of vehicles for their transportation. And more importantly, do not need people who are engaged in the production and transportation of it all. Job losses may cause a decline in the purchasing power of the broad strata of the population and a new wave of falling demand for raw materials and finished products.
Indexes freight only objectively reflect the overall picture of what is happening because they do not have that speculative component that is present in commodity prices. And the fall is true of nearly all indexes of transportation. And the most famous Baltic Dry index and the Shanghai containerized freight index shipments by rail and road. The volume of freight carried by rail in the USA, over the past 11 weeks have been, according to Bank of America, more than 5% lower than the same period last year. Last week they fell by 10.1%. This has not happened since 2009, i.e. since the first wave of the crisis. Transatlantic sea freight fell almost to the zero level, and such, as they say, I do not remember the old-timers. Some types of Intercontinental transport, for example, the same oil has fallen by 90%. The ships were in the ports, because to carry anything on them brings direct loss to their owners. Orders for new ships is not likely to entail the closure of the shipyards and a new wave of mass layoffs in the leading shipbuilding powers like Korea and China.
these developments in the real economy any reasonable person should worry much more than the behavior of global equity indices. Especially when a significant proportion does not form from shares of companies that produce real goods and shares are actually service companies. Google, Amazon or Microsoft play a prominent role in the life of modern society, making it more comfortable, but nothing more. A search query on the Internet can make life easier by providing some information, but not enough to satisfy your hunger, and it will not protect against cold or inclement weather. It will require real food or clothes, and with the reduction in effective demand, this problem may become more and more relevant.
the Full integration into the world economy good until, while in the global economy all works normally, without failures. She, as well as virtual space, reduces costs and makes it more comfortable. However, when the global economy begins to encounter problems, and trade routes for one reason or another, are violated, is starting to question about how the national economy of a country truly sustainable and able to meet the basic needs of its citizens such as food, fuel, medicine and essential goods, as far as its population is able to live and survive in conditions of complete or very substantial reduction in the receipt of goods from the outside.
the Current drop in world cargo traffic may represent only the initial reflection of the impending new wave of the crisis, and, by the looks of it, it can be a real tsunami. In this case, the availability of potable water, food, fuel, medicines and essential commodities is critical for every person. Equally important is the availability of secured hard money – gold and silver, because the fall in the purchasing power of paper currencies and the loss of confidence in him to buy anything that is needed will only be possible when instead some real goods it will be possible to propose another equally real goods. This is traditionally the most preferred merchandise for any market participants always had money, whose role over the centuries of human history have played gold and silver.
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