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Today in Avdeevka near Donetsk may begin evacuation of the population. Fierce fighting and shelling between Ukrainian army and DPR forces continued yesterday. Not respected the cease-fire today. Both sides accuse each other of provocation, however, the inhabitants of the town under the control of the Ukrainian army, that does not help. Last night in Avdiivka disappeared electricity and mobile communications. The last few days, almost had not only electricity, but water and heat. As the temperature outside drops below 20 degrees below zero. On the verge of stopping is Avdeyevka coke and chemical plant, boiler-house which heats the city. Now the company is set to sustain.
on 30 January, Ukraine's foreign Ministry has accused Russia that its armed forces have made the shelling of the city for a few days. In response, the press Secretary of the President of Russia Dmitry Peskov said that the situation in Avdeevka triggered "separatist groups" under the guise of Ukrainian army. "There are credible data that indicate that yesterday (30 January — approx. ed.) from the "separatist groups" attempted attacks on the territory controlled by the republics of Donbass. They crossed the contact line with the support of artillery, and the militia of Donbass had to fight back, to recapture this territory," — said Dmitry Peskov.
the OSCE has taken a neutral position. "We have difficulty with access on both sides of the line of collision, and we have seen that provocative actions on both sides are the main cause of what is happening," he said on the air "Public TV Donbass", Deputy head of mission Alexander hug.
the UN security Council urged parties to the conflict to urgently cease fire. Yesterday, on the initiative of the Ukrainian side he held a private meeting. Open is scheduled for tomorrow, February 2. Today in Minsk in the afternoon will be a meeting of the Trilateral contact group on the Donbas.
because of the events in Avdiivka on Sunday immediately cut short his visit to Berlin Petro Poroshenko. Many Ukrainian experts noted the coincidence of the visit of the Ukrainian President and the aggravation of the situation in the Donbas.
"On January 30, was scheduled to meet with Poroshenko Merkel. The conversation was extremely tough. Because Merkel had planned a gesture to show Peter Alekseevich, what happens to those who sabotages the Minsk agreement. — wrote in Facebook the President of the Ukrainian Center of innovative consulting "KDA" Dmitry Korneychuk. And that's a strange coincidence, the day before Poroshenko's visit, DNR militants decided to seize the industrial area of the Town. Launched a massive bombardment of the prohibited arrangements the heavy weapons. Moreover, in the same strange coincidence, the next day, at the time of the meeting Poroshenko, Merkel, the peak of the fighting. Putting the plant on the brink of a humanitarian catastrophe. And instead gesture from Merkel, Poroshenko pointed to the important fights in Avdeyevka, saying, like, what the implementation of the Minsk agreements, if they are there the carnage began. Further briefing. Where no stiff statements of Merkel is not sound. Next. Poroshenko interrupted his visit to Germany, on a white horse returning to Ukraine to save the plant. Question: who would benefit from the provocation in the town? And what is the life of the couple dozen soldiers and a couple civilians in the global game?".
foreign policy for Kyiv, the situation in two ways. On the one hand, European partners not to fulfil Kiev "Minsk agreements" — in France and Germany preparing for the elections. On the other hand, knows how to behave, the main ally of Kiev — the United States. Donald trump to the status of the current President has not voiced his opinion, although yesterday the state Department urged to stop the violence in the plant. Writes Suddeutsche Zeitung, citing sources in the German government, the humanitarian catastrophe in the town of Kiev, probably, counts on the fact that the situation is so aggravated that it will be possible to prevent the plans of the President of the United States to mitigate the anti-Russian sanctions. "The actions of Poroshenko in Berlin treats so that he will do almost anything in order to prevent the lifting of sanctions against Russia", — noted the reviewer Stefan Braun. However, he remarks: on the basis of information of the OSCE observers, official Berlin States that "first of all, the Ukrainian military are trying to change the front line in their favor."
the Fact that the Ukrainian authorities are not going to comply with the terms of the "Minsk agreements", in Kiev for a long time do not hide. And increasingly heard statements that the Ukrainian Donbass will be liberated. Version information, for example, interior Minister Arsen Avakov, this will happen this year. Of course, such statements are more like self-praise. However, most of the recent aggravations on Donbass due to the fact that the Ukrainian army continues quietly "move" the front line. Somewhere 100-200 meters in the neutral zone, and somewhere from the distance. This is indicated not only the fighters of the unrecognized republics. But, as wrote the Suddeutsche Zeitung, the OSCE. For example, the Donetsk filtering station is almost on the front line and, by agreement of the parties, no one comes close to her, closer than 1.5 kilometres. However, the report dated January 22, OSCE monitoring mission reports about the appearance near the station of the Ukrainian position: "21 January mini-UAV has recorded 4 fighting positions in government-controlled areas between houses and the highway H20. The patrol, the SMM noted the presence of the state flag of Ukraine at a position located on the highway, at a distance of approximately 200 m to the East of Donetsk filtration station."
the Most striking confirmation of the attempts to change the "border" — December battles of Debaltsevo. Then the Armed forces of Ukraine managed to capture a few strategic points.
it is Curious that an attempt to "squeeze" areas do not deny and in Kyiv. Back in July, MP and military expert Dmitry Tymchuk said on Facebook the information that APU has moved to Donetsk on a four kilometers.
"the so-called creeping Process of de-occupation, when we slowly move the fighters and grab some territory, should be conducted very carefully. You need to clearly focus on the line of defense, which was established according to the "Minsk-2", — Tymchuk wrote. As you know, one of the contradictions of the second of the agreements in Minsk is the line of demarcation. According to Kiev, in the winter of 2015, the Ukrainian army was forced out of the territory of fifteen thousand square kilometers, and he insists on returning to the "old" line of demarcation. Therefore, the Ukrainian authorities do not consider it a violation of attempts to recapture the "depressed" areas. What he wrote Tymchuk. And we are talking a little bit-a lot of strategic importance for the existence of LDNR areas. The same Debaltsevo — the largest railway hub that connects the DPR and LPR and Russia. In addition, this "Appendix" is wedged in the DNI, and at his return give the Ukrainian army the ability to create a springboard for environment as Gorlovka and Donetsk.
On the maps that were in Colossal, it can be clearly seen. As, however, and that even there where the front line is no contradiction, she originally laid the current clashes. The front is along or on the outskirts of Donetsk, Gorlovka and constantly threatens these major cities DPR attack or enemy fire. Moreover, the distance from the APU to the city centre averages 10 kilometers returning to position even 120-millimeter guns already will have serious implications for the DNR. That, in principle, from time to time happens.
Another reason for the activity of the Ukrainian military near Donetsk and Gorlovka can be the presence near the front lines of strategic routes. For example, the road between the two cities, which also connects the capital of the DNI and Lugansk further — with Russia. In several areas the trail is well-sweep by the Ukrainian military. Approximately the same situation has developed in the area of Stakhanov after the attack the Ukrainian forces in the debaltseve direction. They took the height at the track in Stakhanov.
Not all attempts of the Ukrainian army successful, but Kiev is trying to squeeze the maximum benefit out of everything. If the operation fails, the forces of the unrecognized republics and Russia immediately accused of provocation and violation "of the Minsk agreements". The situation in the town and in December the battle of Debaltsevo — proof.
this tactic of the Ukrainian military says not only that they are going to return the "old" line of demarcation. Obviously, APU tries to take positions that in the future can play a key role in the fate of the LDNR. The more that the Ukrainian army is another.
For more than two and a half years, APU has really got combat experience and began with the support of the West is not what they were in the summer of 2014, when there was ilovaisky boiler, and even in January of 2015 when their squeezed out from debaltseve.
"the return of the Croatian scenario"
of Course, much of the future actions of Kiev in the Donbass will be determined by the position of the West. That, obviously, relies Petro Poroshenko. However, this does not change the desire of Kiev to deal with the Donbass is not on the "Minsk agreements", and in Croatian script. At least in recent months about this increasingly Ukrainian state policy.
"We will come, eventually, to the Croatian version," — said, for example, at the end of December in Kramatorsk head of the Donetsk regional military-civil administration Pavlo zhebrivskyi.
On the possible desire of the Ukrainian authorities to regain the power of Donbass speak and their contact with the government of Croatia, which in November created a special group to provide consulting assistance.
Recall that in 1990, the Croatian authorities announced a policy of independence, while not wanting to give autonomy to the local Serbs. In response they held a referendum about autonomy and announced in 1991 the creation of three regions of Croatia Republic of Serbian Krajina. They were supported by Belgrade. And then between the Serbs and Croats began fighting the clashes in 1992, partly stopped UN peacekeepers. They were placed along the border of the new Republic. In early 1995 USA drew up a peace plan "Zagreb-4". However, it did not work, as even the autonomy of the Serbian Krajina in Croatia was not satisfied with Zagreb. Thus for four years the independence of the Serbian Krajina, the Croatian army was a radical reorganization and modernization. So Zagreb was set on a military solution to the conflict. And 4 August 1995 began the operation of the Croatian army "Storm", in planning with the participation of the private military company MPRI from the US and used the intelligence to NATO forces. From Friday until Monday 150 thousand security forces almost completely cleared the area of Serbian Krajina, where they were opposed by an army of 40 thousand local militia. After the defeat of the Republic its left 230-250 thousand Croatian Serbs. The international Tribunal for the former Yugoslavia has recognized that the "Storm" operation was the expulsion of the Serbs and the settlement of the territory of Croatia. The Western community has closed his eyes to sweep the protest expressed only Belgrade and Moscow.
Today the operation is considered to be indicative of the swiftness with which the Croatian army mastered the Serbian Krajina. However, this was not the case. For example, on August 4, the storm Petrini of the 2nd guards brigade failed, and the Croats had to retreat. Also occurred on several fronts. And in the evening, four NATO aircraft attacked anti-aircraft positions of the Serbs. Against them in contrast to the Croatian aviation of Serbian Krajina was powerless.
That combines Donbas with the Serbian Krajina, so this is a strategic preparation for a possible attack. On the eve of the attack on the Republic, the Croatian army captured in the current Bosnia and Herzegovina city Glamoc and Bosansko Grahovo. Thus, Zagreb took the southern Serbian Krajina in the half-encircled and had the opportunity to strike at the rear — from the South-East. About the same advantage will be given Kiev, if you regain the Debaltsevsky base.
Today the difference between the Croatia and now Ukraine is that Kiev has not made the promised economic breakthrough, and the country itself is in deep economic crisis. Therefore, the forces and political will, on Donbass there is simply not enough. In Kiev admit it. "Even if it made the strategic decision to implement a "Croatian scenario" for the return of Donbass and Crimea will take decades," he predicted in an interview, former adviser to the head of SBU Markiyan Lubkivsky — ally "Ukrainian hawk" and former head of the SBU Valentin Nalyvaychenko.
However, "creeping de-occupation" of Donbass continues and the situation in Avdeevka — example. In addition, in Kiev believe that the continuation of the sanctions will continue to weaken Russia, and it is possible that Moscow will abandon support for the Donbass. With the Serbian Krajina, when it was attacked by the Croatian army, Belgrade also does not help the country. Therefore, even a humanitarian disaster in the town, which the Ukrainian authorities will try to influence the position of Donald trump, is well within the scope of the Croatian scenario of Kiev for the Donbass.
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