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Today, when over the ravaged Avdeevka hung, finally, a fragile truce, the people in the troubled Donbass, and not only there, wondering What will happen next?
In this suspense menacing note is made on the day in Donetsk, Eduard Basurin warning: "Ukrainian troops are preparing a major offensive on the entire front in the Donbass!"
With the question of how such predictions can be justified and what if this goal can count the "power" of Ukraine and what to expect, we turned to Constantine Sameline – recognized analyst in 2005 in one of his works predicted not only the ongoing armed conflict in the East of Ukraine, but also the time to start! And his last published study is entitled: "Theory of the civil war and its application to the war in Ukraine, which began in 2014." So Mr. Sameline have something to tell our readers.
- Konstantin Sergeyevich, do You Agree that the Donbas is preparing a large-scale offensive of the APU?
- Not fully. In the sense that I don't agree with the "future time" of your question. In my opinion, a full-scale war in the Donbas has already begun - 29 January 2017.
Svetlodarsk escalation, the countdown which went from 18 December 2016, was her foreplay. Currently, the APU is, first, to clarify the real defense potential NM LDNR, and, secondly, active attempts to destroy the advanced fortifications of the militia with the aim of maximizing facilitating a future attack.
- do you See other evidence of this – apart from the rearrangements and transfer of the armed forces and the destroyer battalions in the Donbass – in the rhetoric of Ukrainian politicians, international activity of Ukraine, other areas?
- All that I see, is a natural development of so-called logic of things - and nothing more. First from Kiev we all watched in complete disregard of the political part of the truce "Minsk-2" and, simultaneously, to comprehensively strengthen the army of Ukraine. It started back in 2015 (after the defeat of the APU under debaltseve). And now Kiev wants to see the results of this work.
- is There, in Your opinion, the chances of such an offensive military aspect? What could be the consequences for Ukraine in the international arena after such a clear rejection of the Minsk agreements and openly aggressive actions?
- we Must clearly understand myself that in the civil war in Ukraine are fighting two of the blocks: NATO is supporting the current Kiev regime, is opposed to the breakaway new Russia in one way or another, the degree and the form supported by Russia.
If only to compare, say, the quantitative composition derived now in the field troops - APU vs NM LDNR, the victory of the army of Ukraine, at first glance, looks unconditional. Well... as you looked undeniable victory of the Wehrmacht over the red Army on 22 June 1941. But that's the thing that is not in the cards for staff, but in reality are fighting not only the troops in the field. Confront each other, the military (and not only!) system which are generated by States and, first and foremost, people.
that's the basis of this, a REAL understanding of the war, the chances of the NATO system+Kiev against Novorossiya Russia there is absolutely! Proof? Well, we all remember - where ended the Great Patriotic war. And since its completion changes if they have occurred, it is clearly not in favor of Europe.
In the real world - not developed in headquarters and government offices, "plans", and it is in the real military confrontation, the maximum for the APU is to try to wedge deep into the territories of LNR and DNR, but not anymore. Neither Donetsk nor Lugansk they take fail.
- it would be Interesting at least hypothetically predict the reaction to the onset of the major world "players" - Russia, USA, Germany.
- In my opinion, the main options here can be reduced to three:
1)the Use of Russian regular army to save the people of Donbass (in the open or hidden form).
2)attempts by the US as long as possible to stay away from conflict, which subsequently may result in the imposition of new sanctions against Russia.
3)Active participation on the side of the Kiev regime in Germany, which will make every effort to mobilize the EU for the provision of military assistance to Kiev.
- What, in your opinion, may be the reaction to the "big war" in Ukraine itself – in society and politics? Will this adventure last straw to bury the current regime in Kiev?
- is Unlikely. However, it all depends on what this escapade will end. War itself is a unifying factor in society, but a military defeat could bring the current Kiev government to collapse. Then Ukraine can expect the fate of Somalia, Syria and Iraq. The final transformation into a Wild field.
- How you consider, whether headed by the Kiev authorities in making decisions on offensive operations in the Donbass complete misunderstanding of the real situation and capabilities of the APU – or they pursue their own, unclear goals, knowing about the complete hopelessness of such attempts in military terms?
- In my opinion, the purpose of Kiev may be two:
1) a"Complete victory" - that is, the capture of Donetsk and Luhansk and the defeat of the DNI and LC, the actual destruction.
2)Or... lose! Paradoxical as it may sound, but such a goal could be considered as acceptable. Of course, on condition that such will occur after the imposition of martial law and General mobilization in Ukraine. Probably, in Kiev consider a General mobilization is so strong that you will be able to reverse the war in the Donbass in favor of the APU?! Well, martial law is a great opportunity for the current regime is anything to prolong its existence...
these findings are largely controversial. For example, the imposition of martial law might make sense for the current "government" of Ukraine only in case of complete and unconditional support from the United States and the European Union. Otherwise such a step would lead the country to international isolation, economic collapse, and, as an inevitable result of the political collapse. The attempt to conduct a "General mobilization" in the current situation, when Ukrainian citizens, to put it mildly, do not rush to the army, and especially to the front, it may become the last nail in the thunder mode...
However, all of the above leads to very disturbing thoughts. If we are in Kiev, ready to act in the Donbass, according to the principle "the worse – the better", a major war is not exactly inevitable.
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