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Fully automatic production
I would Like you to have a guaranteed income of $ 100,000 a year net? How about the same income, but for a three-hour work day one day a week for five years plus a six month vacation every year? Sounds unbelievable? With modern technology, absolutely not. This is not some pipe dream of the twenty-first century. This level is possible to achieve ten years in the United States, if we apply everything we know about automation and computers to create cybernated society. Maybe it will happen not so fast, because this task requires using modern thinking intellectual under the accelerated program. A similar accelerated program applied in the development of the atomic bomb in just over four years.
otherwise, it might take thirty years. We work quickly when threatened, but dillydally when it comes to constructive improvements in human life.
If you remember, we talked about the three factors that play a major role in the development of our civilization. The first system of values. The second method of thinking. Third – level technologies or devices and machines for the production of goods and services. The technological wave of the future will consist of automated machines controlled by computers.
When Queen Julianna of the Netherlands saw a demonstration of an electronic computer at the exhibition in Amsterdam, she said, "I can't understand. I can't even understand people who can understand that." But the situation is not as bleak as described by Queen. Do not have to understand how a computer works as much as do not have to understand how the internal combustion engine in your car to enjoy the benefits of the automotive era. The important thing is that we understand the effects of avtomatizatsii and computers.
"Electronic computer", says Professor Louis T. Rader, Vice-President of General electric, is "may have a more beneficial potential for the human race than any other invention in history. Sir Leon Bagrit, the British company "Elliot Automan," said that computers and automation would bring "the greatest change in the history of mankind." Let's see what they mean.
simply put, automation is replacing human hands and feet by machines that do the same job – only better. Modern computers replace human brains with electronic equipment that manipulates the numbers taking programmed decisions, and gives the user much more effectively than any human. Cybernetization means control a factory computer that works instead of the head.
the Development of automation
the Purpose of machines is to lighten the workload. Assume that we have no machines. In such a society a person needs to work from 100 to 200 days a year just to feed themselves. To produce one shirt for yourself he may need more than 100 hours of work! Suppose you want to produce a shirt in primitive conditions. How many hours should be spent on soil preparation and cultivation of cotton? After ripening, it is necessary to collect, to pick the seeds and tie the fibers in the thread. When there are enough threads, you can weave it into the fabric. Then you need to cut fabric in the shape of a shirt and sew it. Imagine how much time would it took if your only tools were a hoe, a knife and a needle.
the Time required for the production of shirts, declined sharply in the eighteenth and nineteenth centuries, when the majority of the work was mechanized and carried out at factories. Create volunatarily separating the seeds from the white cotton, and the invention of the device for weaving thread and creating a loom, weaving the thread into cloth to produce a shirt the best quality at the cost of only a few hours. Today, the shirt leaves a little more than one man-hours from seed to seller!
In the twentieth century mass production with Assembly lines and advanced machines has drastically reduced the cost of manufactured goods. Automation is based on the same principles that mechanization and mass production, but it goes a little further. Previously factories needed humans to control the machines. Automated machines run by themselves. Through the feedback mechanism they monitor their work. They give instructions and monitor the quality of the manufactured product. They work faster at a speed that would have killed a man. They are not tired and forget. They are not on strike and do not ask for allowances. The factory design is simplified. Automated cars don't need Parking, air conditioning, bright lights, showers, canteens, or breaks. They do not even need specialized facilities for work.
the Automated machines can be, or soon will be, designed to perform almost any possible task performed by a person. Since we have only two hands, it is possible to create Autonomous machines far exceed the manipulative ability of the person. In 1961, "YUS industries" announced the development of the first automatic General-purpose machinery worth about $ 2,500. It was called, Transferout. Its swivel arm and hand is many times better than any human hand or brush. She never tires of her electronic brain rarely makes a mistake. She raises and lowers items with the accuracy of one-thousandth of an inch! Corporation Westclox in the city of LaSalle, Illinois, uses, Transferout for lubrication of watch mehanizmov as they move through the conveyor belt. He oils eight precision bearings per second. The typewriter factory of the underwood Corporation, the robot picks up and inserts the small components of the typewriter in close socket. Brush Transferabte can run softer than the caress of lovers, or to capture objects with the force grip. It can use mechanical fingers or electromagnets. For flowable substances, such as chocolate cream, he uses the weak vacuum mechanism.
John Snyder, the Creator of Transferable says:
"While we have not found any material or shape or size, with which he cannot cope... We built the line automated marking for Nissan motors in Japan. It includes six presses with machines of the type Transferout that transfer an item from one press to another. One person monitors the feeding of metal sheets, the second for the output of the ready wings. This machine replaces, well, probably, in the whole twenty. But that's not all. You can extend the process until the moment of fastening of the wing to the car. Even with the cheapness of labor in Japan, this thing is much more economical."
History of computers
as well as Autonomous vehicles replace the tired muscles of man, computers are created that can replace the bored minds of people engaged in repetitive work of the production of goods and services in our industrial society. Like automated machines better than human hands performing repetitive tasks, the computer surpasses the human mind. IC electronic computer give the answer in a millionth of a second. It is a thousand times faster than the response raccia neurons in our brains to an external stimulus. Robert Theobald said that "...in the near future we will understand,
that computers can perform any task in a structured..."
People for a long time was to create computer. The simple abacus of ancient times was the first step. In 1671, Gottfried Leibniz had tried unsuccessfully to invent a mechanical calculator. "Ought not the beautiful people", - he wrote - "like slaves to lose hours doing the calculation." An Englishman named Charles Babbage brought many principles of modern mechanical computer in 1834, but he failed to produce a working prototype, as the technology of the time did not allow to create a sufficiently accurate components. And only in 1944 Howard Aiken, Professor at Harvard University, created the first real computer. A sad echo of our times was the use of this pervoprokhodcev computer to calculate trajectories of missiles for the U.S. Navy.
the First computer Aiken was soon left in the shadow of the famous ENIAC [from the English. electronic numerical integrator and calculator], developed at the University of Pennsylvania. Though he was a lot more powerful than the ENIAC had 18000 vacuum tubes were unreliable and took a lot of space. Computers began to shrink in size and increase capacity by circa 1958, when a small MOSFETs and solid-state components replaced vacuum tubes. Computers today can multiply the half a million ten-digit numbers per second. Many computers can per hour to make more calculations every than the whole audience
mathematicians in my entire life. In 1951 in the United States were less than 100 computers in action. By 1965 the number had increased to 22500 and continues to grow.
Some companies use up to 200 computers.
in 1959", Sperry-Rand Corporation" created a computer that can perform 250,000 additions and subtractions of twelve-character numbers per second. This gives him the opportunity to calculate monthly salary of 15,000 workers in just fifteen hours. Before, it took 450 to 900 hours for similar work. Because only a fraction of the processor in the computer used for payroll, it is still parallel can solve scientific problems!
By 1965 computers were used for resena more than 700 different kinds of tasks. At the time of writing this book, this number has greatly increased. Large airlines use computers to provide instantaneous information about available seats on all flights. Stock exchanges use computers to instantly calculate the stock price. Today computers do layouts of Newspapers, is calculated for us the Declaration on the income tax, control the flow of elektrichestva most producers of electricity, help us make international calls, looking for available communication lines, making the navigation of aircraft and ships and provide the railway station with information on where their freight cars. A computer can land a plane in fog without human assistance. Our space ships orbiting the earth, exploring the moon and planets rushing by, very dependent on computers, from chips and ending with the last inch of his spectacular flights. The majority of today's business, government and science would be paralyzed if the computers needed a vacation.
it has Been estimated that if there were no computers, the phone company would be forced to hire all the working women in the country to handle the flow of calls. Today, computers control the production equipment neftekhimichesky, oil, paper and steel industries. The "Factory of the future" of the company "Western electric" computers in accounting, logistics and warehousing; they order the materials, write the checks and decide what and how much to produce. The Time magazine said:
Computers have helped scientists to discover more than 100 new subatomic particles, and working hard on the analysis of unknown radio signals from space. Biochemists using the computer were able to look at hitherto inaccessible secrets of the human cell, and hospitals began to use it to monitor the condition of patients. Modern computers read electrocardiograms faster and more accurately than
a panel of doctors. The LAPD plans to use computers to gather useful information about the crimes and e-gallery of the crimes of known criminals. And more and more schools use computers for teaching languages, history and mathematics.*
*Technology, Time magazine, April 2, 1965, p. 86. Courtesy of Time magazine; copyright JSC "the Time", 1965.
Though created recently, computers have rapidly transformerait our civilization. According to Walter to Buckingham, on radio factory in Chicago:
...collect 1000 radio on the day with two people instead of two hundred, as it was before automation. The company "DuPont" using a computer at MIT (Massachusetts Institute of technology), decided thirty hours a chemical problem, while the person at the 40-hour work week would take twenty years to solve only the arithmetic part of it. At the Institute for advanced study at Princeton an electronic computer is weather forecasts, which would have taken one person with a calculator for three hundred years. In the latter two cases, it would be impractical and uneconomical without automation.*
* Walter the Buckingham, "automation" (new York: Harper and row, 1963), pp. 27-28.
the Bakery is automated so that upon delivery of grain in a silo and to the time of export of the finished bread, it does not touch the human hand. One bakery under the leadership of one man can satisfy the needs of the whole state. In 1959, local Union consisted of 1300 members, and in 1963 they became 350. Soon they plant more automatiseret and then there will be only twenty-five employees, producing two times more than before. The heads of trade unions are very concerned about disappointing future of its members. However, one trade Union has automated its head office and reduced the number of employees from sixty to six. When asked about the apparent contradiction of the act, a Union representative explained that "business is business."
the Cybernetization can be represented as the wedding of automated machines and computers. When the factory is equipped with automated machines with computer guidance, the work can be removed from production. The only thing to be done is to enable machines to stand back and not interfere with their work.
For example, an automated cleaning fluid plant equipped with machines that mix liquid and poured into their bottles. If the robotics, the plant will use a computer attached to each machine, to each of the storage cell and to each operating mechanism. At any time you have a computer that will have access to all information at the factory. He will process this information and without interruption to give instructions to maintain plant operation at maximum power. Every second he will be able to monitor what is happening on the plant better than any people in the head. He never takes a break and goes to the toilet. The computer at the head of the cybernated factory washing liquid, among other things, will send out orders for chemicals, bottles, labels and other materials before they are needed. It will automatically stop or speed up production depending on demand for the product. Computer to quickly determine any malfunction and eliminate it immediately. It will also monitor the availability of the necessary equipment.
At the robotics automated machine will do all the work under the guidance of the computer. Computer "head" coordinates all activities at the plant, so it needs no administrators, secretaries, foremen and any other Supervisory personnel. Self-healing cybernated factory can work 24 hours a day, 365 days a year without a single person. If there was a man, he probably would have spent the time looking at dials and struggling with boredom. Today a small team of workers in cybernated oil refinery can do the job in front
uniform and white gloves, not afraid to get them dirty!
"Perfect automation based on nuclear energy," said albert Einstein, "will make today's industry the same primitive, which for us is a society of the stone age." We are able to build a car factory in which the raw material is automatically supplied on the one hand, and a shiny car pulled out of the other, without human intervention. The cybernated system has nearly eliminated human labor, can be designed to manufacture all that we need from the food we eat to the houses we inhabited.
Goods and services without labor
so how cybernetization effect on the previously mentioned shirt, the production of which without a car can take a hundred hours? If all raw materials are mined, collected and processed the cybernated machines, and if the shirts are made in the cybernated factory without human intervention, then how much human labor it took to manufacture the shirt? Five seconds on the shirt – it is
Further improvements can reduce this figure to seconds or less per shirt. What, in this case, the cost of the shirt? Five cents? One cent? One-tenth of a cent? Does it make sense to take the money for the shirt, if almost no human labor was invested in its production and distribution?
since any task possible the human brain and human hands can theoretically be cyberneticist on a permanent basis, the development of modern technology will almost eliminate the human labor cost of services. For example, dry cleaning is already avtomatiziruete. In the future, haircuts, manicures, beauty salons, laundries and automotive workshops will be cybernated. The ability of cybernetic machines was described by Donald N. Michael:
Cybernated system work with precision, unattainable for humans. They funtioniert in conditions that are impractical or impossible for humans. They can detect and correct errors in their work and to report the man, which of the components is faulty. They can make decisions based on programmed instructions. They can remember and search for information that was either pre-programmed or received in the course of processing the new data.
So they can learn, relying on previous experience with the surrounding world. They can obtain information in a much
a broader range of characters and sensors than people. They begin to feel and understand. *
*Donald N. Michael, the "Cybernetization: the silent conquest" (Santa Barbara, CA:
the Center for the Study of Democratic Institutions, 1962), p.6.
To service the factories of the future people will not be needed. Cybernated factories will be created to serve many tens of years without the need for human intervention. Regular maintenance or repair will be done by machines. Advanced materials and designs of the future will make of the car is practically not subject to wear. Today Western electric makes complex switches that work so flawlessly that a single failure in five million operations is considered below normal. Some modern switches for your life uninterrupted switch a billion times.
Professor Norbert Winer, "the father of Cybernetics," wrote:
degraded Man, if it was tied to the paddle and use it to brute force; but it is degraded almost equally during the execution of repetitive operations in the plant using less than million shares of its intellectual potential.
the Advent of robotics could be something like the proclamation of the liberation of humanity. Its sensible application at least will be able to provide the highest possible standard of living with little or no work. For the first time in history, it will free people from imposed structured and routine daily activities. It will allow them to return to the Greek concept of leisure, when all the work was done by slaves, and people were able to develop intellectually. In the future each of us will command millions of slaves. Only these slaves will be mechanical and electrical, in contrast to the humiliating exploitation of man to perform work that another could enjoy life.
Today the computers are at an early stage of development, like the Model T from Ford. At the moment the most powerful electronic computers have only 1/10000 share of the associative abilities of the person.
Today's computers generally are programmed to perform specific operations. We can only begin to expand their ability to collect huge amounts of data and their creative processing.
though computers were just starting to grow, some of them already beginning to show some originality.
"the Present level of these learning machines," says Professor Norbert Winer:
is that they can play the Amateur game of chess, but in checkers they demonstrate clear superiority over a player after 10-20 hours of playing with it, using the learning algorithm. So they definitely move away from current full human control that created them. Being so well developed as the repertoire of factors that they will not fail to use computers of course – and so say those who played with them – show signs of originality, and not only in tactics, which can be quite unforeseen, but even in intelligent choice of optimal strategy.
* Norbert Winer, "Moral and technical consequences of automation", Science, issue 131, No. 3410, dated 6 May 1960, p. 1306. Copyright American Association for the Advancement of Science.
the Micro-miniaturization of computer components may enable man to create in the future computers in excess of associative capacity of our brain millions of times. Will be created the computers are connected to touch receptors around the world, enabling them to instantly receive information on all serious incidents. The Central computer of the future will be able to collect, process and analyze all available facts and information, a fantastic task, neodvisna any one person. The amount of facts and formulas today are so wide that very often, even a scientist could hardly cope with learning new advances in their specialty.
the computer is able to cope with the unification of all knowledge and make decisions based on full relevant data. In the future computers will not only be able to think like people, but to the incredible degree will surpass man in the ability to process facts and information. They will analyze the data and propose optimal solutions that will allow people to realize their desires. It is impossible to achieve a system of values, without the widespread use of automated machinery and computers integrated into the global cybernated complex.
Cybernetization able to transform our world into the garden of Eden. We need goods and services will be available without the monotonous human work. And the tree of knowledge will bloom for the benefit of all without exception. The main part of productive years of life will no longer depend on the need in making money. Household cybernetization will free women from boring and exhausting household chores.
the First time men and women will be able to realize their desire for self-development and lead a colorful and eventful life that corresponds to their feelings and views. "Freedom of the human potential of work, not worthy of human dignity" - said Gerald Peel, "that will release this potential for a variety of new possibilities, unthinkable in today's society..."*
* Gerald Peel, "Consumers of abundance" (Santa Barbara, CA: Center for the Study of Democratic Institutions, 1961), p. 9.
the rat race is finally over. The need for human involvement for the functioning of society will become low. The famous saying of John F. Kennedy: "the Important thing is not what your country can do for you and what you can do for your country" - will sound the opposite. The first time people will be able to enjoy the abundance of life possible thanks to the constructive application of human intelligence. Cybernated technology will allow all people to live a better life than having a million slaves each. Even the most wealthy people of today live a stressful life and inferior compared to the relaxed and full of possibilities rhythm, which will be available to people in the cybernated society.
We asked, have you ever wanted to have a guaranteed income of $100,000 a year. In the 1960s in the USA, the average family had an income of about $6,000 a year. But when the cybernetic production of goods and services does not include the cost of human labor, everyone can get almost everything in any quantity! One hundred thousand dollars or a million dollars a year – does not matter. Naturally, in the absence of human labor and availability of inexhaustible nuclear energy, the price tags on goods will disappear. Create prices – only method of distribution for missing resources.
the Future of man is a thousand times better than the past. For the first time, the person will be able to choose which system of values to stick to it, and then freely implement. For the first time people will be able to apply the scientific method of thinking to achieve the best level of prediction and thus do solve the problem, not frantically to patch them. First goods and services will flow from the cornucopia, not tainted by one's sweat and blood.
"It's a transitional period...", said Adlai Stevenson - "from the ancient concern about the carve-up of the deficit to modern concerns about the distribution of wealth". Cybernated technology will for the first time allow us to realize human potential. We can learn the deepest secrets of the universe; we will be able to enjoy higher level of freedom; and we will succeed in finding happiness.
the Passage from the book of Kenneth S. Keyes and fresco, "look into the future"
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