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The stock Market for many novice investors seem to be something of a game, the essence of which is to buy paper as cheaply as possible, and after some time sell it more expensive. However you can earn not only on growth in securities prices, but also on the dividends.
Quotes vs dividends
a Dividend is the profit share that the company distributes to the shareholders. If you bought a share of the company on the stock exchange, you automatically become a shareholder and entitled to part profits. At the date of payment of dividends, the money should flow into your brokerage account. Dividend payments may be made once a year, every six months or quarterly.
the amount of dividend depends on the profits that the company received on a certain date: for example, at year-end. Depending on its dividend policy to pay the shareholders the company may send a different share of the net profit. And it can be specifically spelled out in its Charter. Or the amount of payments is discussed at the meeting of shareholders. But how to change the stock quotes on the exchange, the amount of dividends depends. On the contrary, a change in dividend policy can lead to a drop in the stock.
the Main advantage of the dividend trading strategy — the opportunity to receive a stable income, having formed a portfolio of securities of different companies. Investors may not watch constantly for the market indices and quotations of securities: it is enough to understand how much he will receive in a specific date. Therefore, the main indicator of the effectiveness of such a strategy is the dividend yield. It illustrates the amount of payments the investor will receive per share.
Another advantage of dividend strategies is that in the moments of decline in the market dividend yield can compensate for the loss of the investor due to the lower prices. The chief of analytical Department UK "BK Savings" Sergey Suverov says that dividends can give an increase in the value of shares to 10%. "If you take stock of such issuers, as "Norilsk Nickel", "Aeroflot" or "RusHydro", their dividend yield hovers around 9-11% per annum. Fall of the market income received by the investor from dividend payments, able to absorb losses due to a decline in the value of the shares", — he said.
According to the senior portfolio Manager of the criminal code "Kapital" Vadim Bit-of Avragim, risk and dividend strategy lies in the fact that the majority of Russian shares depend on prices of raw materials and their cash flows focuses on the primary sector and very cyclical. "In this regard, many companies are unable to maintain high cash flows by reducing raw materials prices," he explains. Therefore, the Manager recommends that you choose the company that even in conditions of sharp fluctuations of prices for raw materials can maintain stable payments.
How to make
the Essence of dividend trading is to assemble a portfolio of securities of companies that pay high dividends, and regularly buy additional shares. Reinvestment allows you to constantly increase your capital and every year to increase the amount of received dividends. Most suitable for such a conservative strategy for the securities of companies that pay dividends on a quarterly basis. In this case, the quotes can almost not change.
the only Question is when to correctly buy and when to sell securities of the companies on whose payments you are relying. It is clear that if the stock was bought for 200 rubles, for the same size of payment of its dividend yield will be higher than if you bought it, say, for 220 rubles.
you Can learn about the record date in advance and buy stock in the company based on the dividends. But usually, stock prices jump once the company approves the dividend. Therefore it is better to buy the stock in advance. The main expert of Department of market analysis "Opening Broker" Alexey Pavlov recommends buying the paper after the next cut-off (after payments to shareholders, its price may be reduced) and "sit" there until the next cutoff on dividends. "During this period, the paper may grow significantly higher than the dividend yield," he says. However, it works if the company carries out payments once a year, not "smearing" a year in the form of interim payments.
What other factors besides dividend yield should an investor consider when choosing a company? The head of Department of investments UK "Raiffeisen Capital" Vladimir Vedeneev indicates that high dividend yield is not always a clear indication of the attractiveness of the company: for example, the market may be wrong about the possibilities of dividend payments or the payments are one-off and unlikely to recur in the foreseeable future.
that's Why analysts recommend to pay attention to the stability of the financial indicators of the company. And to evaluate how stable the company pays a dividend and how much liquid stocks on the exchange. "The last is important because the illiquid stock can show greater volatility in times of market crisis," says Suverov from the BCS. On the stability of the payment you can judge if the size of dividends and their frequency are prescribed in articles of Association. "In Russia a lot of such issuers: for example, "Rossetti", "Surgutneftegas", Lenenergo", — says Alexey Pavlov. Plus the fact that the investor is able to predict the size of future payments.
Another criterion, which is stock quotes, which should be monitored, especially after the closure of the registry. Vadim Bit-avragim said that after payment of the dividend stocks often fall on the value of the dividend. However, sometimes the fall can be significant: for example, shares of "Nizhnekamskneftekhim" with the beginning of the year fell 40% amid falling profit and news that the company will not pay dividends. "In such a situation, the investor is better as soon as possible to sell paper", says Suverov. It usually is the time — the fall of the stock can last more than one day. But to sell securities at a time when the quotes have reached the bottom, he said, is not: perhaps it is better not to fix the damage, and wait for the next dividend cycle.
Which company to choose
the easiest way for a novice investor to make a portfolio of dividend stocks from companies included in the MICEX index. Their list publishes the Moscow stock exchange, now stands at 50 issuers. The advantage of this approach is that you invest in the securities the most liquid and large companies. Assessment senior analyst IK "Russ-invest" Semyon Nemtsov, expected for 2017, the dividend yield of the MICEX index is 5.4% per annum. This means that by investing in stocks of companies included in the index in the same proportion in which these companies represent the index, you can expect a corresponding return. "However, there are a number of companies that pay higher dividends," says Nemtsov.
Companies that pay high dividends, tend to generate high free cash flow. On average horizon of five years, the dividend portfolio in Russia, according to the Bit Avragim, could bring about 10% annually.
Among the most attractive securities in terms of dividend yield financial experts call the shares of the companies of metallurgical and oil and gas sector, as well as mobile operators. Senior analyst of "Aton" Michael Ganelin recommends to pay attention to the shares of such issuers, as Severstal, NLMK, Norilsk Nickel, MTS, "Yunipro" that pay high dividends. The company directed on dividends the free cash flow, and this situation, according to Pavlova from the "OTKRITIE Broker", typical of many companies who already have sustainable market share. "The company is shifting from a growth model to another business model: she has no need to build new warehouses, making a large investment in new equipment. She has a steady income, so it sends all the available funds for payments to shareholders", — says Pavlov. As an example, the lead financier of the operator "MTS": according to the company, since 2010, it paid its shareholders more than 235 billion annual dividend with a compound annual growth rate of 12%. While the annual volume of payments increased by 69%.
the Forecast dividend yield the largest Russian companies
Type of stock
Expected dividend yield, %
share Price, RUB
GMK Norilskiy nikel
Istochnik: "Otkritie Broker"
V UK "Alfa-Kapital" takzhe sovetuyut ne zabivat pro privilegirovannie aktsii "Surgutneftegaza". Po mneniyu portfelnogo upravlyayuschego Eduarda Harina, blagodarya valyutnoy podushke, nakoplennoy kompaniey, oni imeyut horoshie shansi dlya rosta v sluchae oslableniya rublya. Aleksey Pavlov soglasen s otsenkoy potentsiala aktsiy "Surgutneftegaza". "Kompaniya stabilno platit dividendi uzhe mnogo let, vse zavisit ot chistoy pribili po RSBU. Po etoy strategii bumaga prinosila dovolno bolshuyu dohodnost", — govorit Harin.
V kachestve potentsialno interesnih dlya dividendnih strategiy Aleksey Pavlov takzhe nazivaet aktsii "Rusala" i NMTP ("Novorossiyskiy morskoy torgoviy port"). "Potentsialno "Rusal" mozhet platit dividendi. Cherez neskolko let mozhno budet zarabotat na dividendah, i, ne isklyucheno, virastet stoimost etoy bumagi", — schitaet on. Chto kasaetsya NMTP, to, po slovam finansista, nesmotrya na otsutstvie dividendnoy politiki, kompaniya pokazivaet visokuyu rentabelnost. V etom godu rukovodstvo poobeschalo viplatit aktsioneram visokie dividendi. "S uchetom prognozov po pribili mi ozhidaem, chto dividendnaya dohodnost NMTP mozhet sostavit 12-15% godovih", — prognoziruet Pavlov.
A vot otnositelno perspektiv pokupki bumag goskompaniy ne vse tak odnoznachno. Dlya mnogih upravlyayuschih i brokerov ih dividendnaya politika viglyadit nepredskazuemoy, poetomu eksperti sovetuyut investoram ostorozhno podhodit k viboru aktsiy. Nesmotrya na to chto gosudarstvo obyazalo ih napravlyat na viplatu aktsioneram 50% ot pribili, daleko ne vse krupnie emitenti s gosuchastiem sleduyut etomu pravilu. Naprimer, v oktyabre glava "Rossetey" Pavel Livinskiy zayavil, chto nameren poprosit vlasti osvobodit kompaniyu ot viplati dividendov. V proshlom godu goskompaniya vpervie v svoey istorii viplatila dividendi po obiknovennim aktsiyam.
Esche odin yarkiy primer — "Gazprom". Gazoviy monopolist v iyule prinyal reshenie viplatit po itogam 2016 goda vsego 20% ot pribili, ili 8,03 rublya na odnu aktsiyu. Eto vsego na 1,9% vishe, chem po itogam 2015 goda. "Istorii s "Gazpromom" i "Rossetyami" razocharovali investorov, kotorie ozhidali bolshih dividendov", — konstatiruet Sergey Suverov. Po ego slovam, interesi gosudarstva i minoritariev chasto protivopolozhni: aktsioneri ozhidayut, chto kompaniya podelitsya s nimi chastyu pribili, a gosudarstvu vigodno, chtobi kompanii bolshe investirovali v strategicheski vazhnie proekti. Poetomu, delaet vivod analitik, investitsii v aktsii goskompaniy s tochki zreniya dividendnoy strategii viglyadyat ochen riskovannimi.
S drugoy storoni, ukazivaet Vadim Bit-Avragim iz UK "Kapital", gosudarstvennie kompanii v poslednie godi znachitelno narastili obem viplat dividendov. Naprimer, "ALROSA" po itogam 2016 goda napravila na viplati 65,7 mlrd rubley, ili polovinu poluchennoy chistoy pribili po MSFO. Pri etom ee chistaya pribil za god virosla v 4 raza. V proshlom godu "ALROSA" viplatila aktsioneram 15,3 mlrd rubley.
"Aeroflot" takzhe napravil v etom godu na viplatu dividendov 50% chistoy pribili za 2016 god, ili 19,4 mlrd rubley. Po otsenkam Suverova, "Aeroflot" — odin iz glavnih kandidatov na rost dividendov. "Rinok aviaperevozok v Rossii razvivaetsya, u kompanii ezhegodno oboroti perevozok rastut na 10-15%. U kompanii visokiy potentsial razvitiya na godi vpered, poetomu ona mozhet esche dolgo ostavatsya privlekatelnoy dlya investorov, rasschitivayuschih na pribil za schet dividendov", — schitaet analitik. V to zhe vremya, preduprezhdaet Bit-Avragim, delat stavku na postoyanno visokie dividendi goskompaniy ne stoit. I ne tolko potomu, chto gosudarstvo mozhet vnezapno pomenyat dividendnuyu politiku konkretnoy kompanii, no i iz-za zavisimosti ot sostoyaniya del v byudzhete. Esli defitsit byudzheta sohranitsya ili prodolzhit rasti, to gosudarstvo budet zainteresovano v visokih dividendah. I naoborot: v sluchae snizheniya defitsita vlasti budut zainteresovani v tom, chtobi goskompanii bolshe investirovali v sobstvennie proekti.
Albert KOShKAROV, Banki.ru
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