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Banks increasingly issued mortgage loans. For the first three quarters of 2017, the growth of loans compared to the previous year was 25%. Banks.ru understood whether to take a mortgage loan right now or better to wait for further rate cuts. And at the same time found out what the counterparts of mortgages available on the market.
"the Current recovery in the mortgage market is largely emotional"
Interest in the mortgage is heated statements about the reduction of interest rates on loans. But in the pursuit of low rates need to pay attention to the economic context. "Mortgage at 12% with inflation at 10% and mortgages by 9% with inflation at 4% — is a completely different proposal. From this point of view the rate of 9% does not look so attractive. Today, we estimate the mortgage rate as low from the perspective of our past ideas about the market. Therefore, the current recovery in the mortgage market is largely emotional. Gradually, the buyers will come to the awareness of the real price of credit. That mortgage rate is not just a figure that more or less than previous performance," says head of the analytical Department of the Ural chamber of real estate Michael Ferrets.
Another fact which is worth paying attention to: the structure of our spending, and real incomes are not growing for the fourth year. "The collapse of the ruble 2.5 times in 2014 has reshaped the cost structure of many families. Opportunities for savings have decreased. The fact that the money from the Russians gets smaller, leads to an increase in the average amount of the mortgage. During the year it increased by 130 thousand rubles, despite the fact that house value does not grow", — says the head of Committee on intelligence of the Russian Guild of realtors Elvira epishina.
According to the Central Bank, three quarter of 2017, banks in Russia issued more than 700 thousand mortgage loans worth 1.28 trillion rubles. Compared to the same period in 2016, the mortgages grew by 25%. If we turn to the figures for January — September 2014, the result in 2017 has already been surpassed by 5%. Then the banks lent to mortgage borrowers in the amount of 1.22 trillion rubles.
the Data of sociological polls show that the housing problem is still relevant for a significant number of Russians: about 45% of all households would like to improve their living conditions, - according to the analytical center of the seller.
"According to our estimates, based on data of a poll conducted by VTSIOM, more than 12 million households plan to buy housing in the next 5 years, 70% of them are willing to use for this mortgage. At the same time citizens are demanding modern and comfortable housing", - said the Agency.
whether to Wait for interest rate reduction in 2018,
this year, market participants expect another round of rate reductions, but their forecasts for next year differ.
"In the Wake of increased activity in the mortgage market (seasonal demand and high volume of restructurings that allow borrowers to reduce the cost of the debt burden and banks to get new customers with proven solvency) it is likely that average lending rates in the fourth quarter will decrease by 0.3—0.5 percentage points, — the analyst of rating Agency "Expert RA" Anastasia Lychagina. — With regard to future trends, in 2018, is unlikely as significant reduction in interest rates. Mortgage banks are already working on the border margins, and reduce the cost of funding has slowed down".
do not agree With it the Director of the Department of the secondary market company "Inkom-real Estate" Sergey Shloma. "If now the average bet size for the purchase of resale flats in the capital is at the level of 10%, in 2018 it may drop to 8.5% or even 8%. I stress that below this level the figure on the Russian real estate market is unlikely to fall in the foreseeable future," he says.
Leading analyst GK TeleTrade mark Goikhman emphasizes that the mortgage interest will continue to decline due to the reduction of the key rate of the Central Bank. "Obviously, the key rate in 2017 will be reduced again to 8% or to 7.75%. And in 2018 it will fall to 6.75—7%: there will be 3 percentage points above the target rate of inflation. Then the interest on mortgage loans will fall to an average of 9%," he says.
"We expect that the preservation of stability in the economy and the lack of external and internal shocks, the downward trend in rates will continue. But the rate of decline will slow — not more than one percentage point to the end of 2018," predicts managing Director sales network branches of Absolut Bank Ivan Atlas of the major species.
the Volume of mortgage lending shows strong growth in recent months. According to the Central Bank of the Russian Federation, in September 2017, the amount of disbursed housing mortgage loans (HML) increased by 22% even in comparison with September of 2016, when it grew by 18% compared to the same period in 2015.
"the rate cuts will continue next year to the level of 8-8,5% as lower cost of funding. This will contribute to the implementation of measures for the development of the market, namely the introduction of electronic document circulation (reduction of costs of issuance and refinancing, reducing the time costs)," - noted in the analytical center of the seller.
it makes sense to hold off on the mortgage?
This means that it makes sense to postpone the application for a mortgage for at least a year, based on reduced rates, if circumstances tolerate. Now even to rent an apartment usually cheaper than taking a mortgage, the costs are less.
"makes No sense to fear the rise of housing prices or buy it for investment purposes. The estate is now little changed in price and are unlikely to rise next year on average faster than inflation, that is more than 3-4% per year. Even the deposits in a safe Bank account for 6.5—7%, that is, provide a higher return than inflation and the appreciation of real estate," explains mark real.
According to the real estate portal "IRN-Consulting", the number of unsold new buildings, for example, in Moscow, in August 2017 was 160% higher than at the end of 2014. Developers have huge stocks of unsold property that weighs on prices. Therefore, even the current mortgage boom is not allowing significant increase of the sales price. Characteristically, at lower rate mortgage and an impressive growth in its volume the price of housing in Moscow fell.
According to the analytical service "Indicators of housing market", from the beginning of 2016 until the end of October 2017, the average price of flats in modern prefabricated houses has decreased from 160 thousand to 155 thousand rubles per square meter, and in the monolithic-brick remained approximately at the level of 200 thousand rubles.
"In 2018 everything can change"
But there is another view: in 2018, the market may change. In particular, the prospect of a ban on the construction of equity. Ban on it will be very important to the mortgage market. Replacement of shared construction on Bank financing certainly lead to more expensive housing.
According to the managing partner of the bar "starinsky, of Cartago and partners" Vladimir Stalinskogo, now is a good time to buy apartments in the primary market, since the supply greatly outweighs the demand, and the banks holding the course on lower rates. "Competition in banking and the construction industry leads to the fact that prices in the primary market is very low. However, in 2018 things can change — more stringent requirements for developers, and the construction process becomes much more complicated. This will lead to increased cost of objects. Prices can dramatically go up. However, in the secondary housing market the situation is different: mortgage rates are low, but in 2018 they may continue to fall, so the rush to buy is not necessary," — said the expert.
the Head of the mortgage group of the Department of new buildings "Inkom-real Estate" Andrey Nosonov sure that the price for new buildings in the near future will not fall. "Far down the cost "will not go" — today we are around those price values that are lower down can't, at least not without the release of by-products of the renovation of the housing stock of Moscow. As a summary, the advice is to buy apartments in new buildings must now, according to the established mortgage rates," he says.
Ivan Atlas of the major species advises to make use of those advantages that gives the buyer the excess of supply over demand. "We would not recommend to wait, when the mortgage rate will overcome a new historical lows. First, a decrease of one percentage point does not significantly change the monthly payment. But you won't miss the apartment, will be able to choose accommodation most suited to your expectations, now offer prevails over demand, and exhibited a large number of objects. Secondly, real estate prices stabilized and is not growing.
But we can not exclude the scenario that they will go up again and all of the resulting interest savings will be "eaten" — the representative of Absolut Bank.
If no mortgage, then what?
During a crisis or in times of high interest rates potential buyers consider all kinds of tools housing. The one who cannot or does not want to take out a mortgage, it is possible to benefit from the leasing deal. It is important to take into account the fact that leasing is not for all categories of customers.
What is the leasing of housing and how it works?
"Leasing is in fact the rent under certain conditions with the subsequent purchase and registration of property. It works as follows. In the process of three parties: the lessor, the lessee and the seller of the apartment. The client selects the Builder and the object of purchase. The lessor buys the object, then a contract of leasing. The client then makes monthly lease payments, which are accounted for at the end of the contract term, if the lessee wants to buy the property and place it in the property" — explains the President of Singapore Castle Family Office Eldiyar Muratov.
the Conditions of leasing is about the same everywhere:
— a down payment of 10-50% of the property value;
— the Finance amount from the lessor without regard to the customer advance — no more than 50-60 million;
— the more their money is made by the client, the easier and faster the procedure of consideration and adoption of the positive decision on the application;
— the lease agreement is for a term of not more than ten years.
"it is Important to know that prior to the full repayment of the value of the property and remuneration of the lessor, the lessee is merely a tenant of the property. This is the main difference from the purchase of an apartment in the mortgage, where the borrower immediately acquires the status of the owner of the property and can dispose of them, although with limitations. The property in this case is the property of the lessor, who leases it with a right of repayment," — said Muratov.
basically, leasing is widespread and popular in the premium segments of the real estate. However, it is worth remembering that the long-term lease from ten years — ultimately costs the client for 3-4% more than a conventional mortgage. The leasing is usually resorted those customers who cannot obtain a Bank loan due to poor credit history or inability to verify your official income, but it is completely sure of their financial viability. It is a product where credit history is almost irrelevant. Advantages of leasing are significant time savings, reduction of formalities, i.e. providing a smaller or simplified list of documents.
Alternative mortgage can serve no-purpose loan or a consumer loan, which has a high rate compared with the mortgage, less time issuing and smaller amounts of credit. It is also worth considering the public benefits, which every year are gaining momentum, but still ineffective. They solve the problem only partially, pushing the customer to use the parent capital in the form of down payment and again to get a mortgage.
According to the company "Inkom-real Estate", perhaps in 2018 there are projects with a long-term lease, but can only run like government agencies. "Alternative mortgage options in the future, but so far only a few developers can offer in their projects such acquisition methods. Probably in 2018 will be a new product on the purchase of apartments and their subsequent delivery in the long term. But such action can only be expected from any major structures, especially the state organizations, who will be able to take on such projects", — says Andrey Nosonov from "Inkom-real Estate".
this is not worth to take out a mortgage ever
And whether those who do not take the mortgage, even if external circumstances that favor?
"Who should not take a mortgage? The answer to this question lies within you, but rather your confidence in the stability of a regular income. Therefore, even if you have a large income but a profession while in the risk zone, is much to think about. For owners of small business, professions related to the flower business, real estate, and others falling into the category of unstable. Marital status today is almost not important, but to pay together much easier. It is desirable that the monthly mortgage payment does not exceed 40% of the total family income. In this case the credit burden will be comfortable," explains Eldiyar Muratov.
According to the National Bureau of credit histories, if we talk about the age composition of borrowers with overdue payments on mortgage loans over 30 days, the lowest indices are citizens aged 25 to 29 years (1.4%) and under 25 years (2,2%) and the highest rates from the borrowers retirement age from 60 to 65 years (10.5 per cent) and over 65 years (8.3 per cent).
it should be understood that the proportion of the "youngest" and most "older" borrowers in the total number of permits overdue more than 30 days is relatively small. Most of these borrowers are at the age ranges 30-39 and 40-49 years; citizens of the most active working age.
as for the distribution of mortgage borrowers in arrears, the lowest share of overdue loans is observed among citizens with loans of up to 1 million rubles (including overdue more than 30 days 1.8%) and from 1 million to 3 million rubles (1.9%). In turn, the largest share of delay citizens with loan amount more than 10 million rubles of 13.6%.
"looks Like the portrait of the deadbeat on your mortgage? As a rule, people with unstable income, often in areas with seasonal demand for services. The main reasons that borrowers face difficulties in the payment of the mortgage — job loss, salary decrease or in maternity leave," — said the press service of the Bank "DeltaCredit".
Mortgage borrower, Explorer portal.ru Anna Dubrovskaya advises to take into account the emotional component: "With mortgage experience over the years, I can say that a mortgage should not take people choleric or inclined to depression. Monthly awareness of the need to "split" paycheck decent "Kush" and give it to the Bank instead of some coveted purchase is able to demotivate anyone. In this case, the mortgage is better to take, being already married. And then dramatically it is important that if you are a pessimist, then your second half it is advisable to be optimistic, then the burden of credit will be not so noticeable. Also I would advise to postpone the mortgage to people who do not know how to save. It is clear that the amount of monthly loan payment you are somehow "forced" out of the budget always get. But your expenses will still have to be reviewed because the amount of available funds greatly reduced, forcing them thereby to abandon the familiar non-essential expenses. Not everyone is ready to such turn of events, and not all are able to accept their new mortgage reality".
Natalia STRELTSOVA, Anna PONOMAREVA, Banki.ru
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