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Crisis is over. The world economy is growing better than expectations, forcing economists to continually increase their forecasts for the year. Grows Europe, where experts predict a new "Golden age", increasing its oil production America, grows even Japan. And only Russia, as always, goes its own way.
"the Growth fizzles out"
Formally, the Russian economy will show for the year plus. The current forecast by Rosstat, GDP growth in 2017 by 1.8%. This is lower than previously thought (Rosstat expect such growth in the first three quarters of this year), although the Ministry of economic development its growth forecast of 2.1% while leaves unchanged.
it would Seem that it's not bad. After two years of decline we finally grow up. However, the optimism which was expressed by the authorities following the successful second quarter, and gradually gave way to pessimism economists: in October, statistics shows all signs of stagnation. What's wrong with our GDP?
the Fact that the economy in 2017 will show signs of growth, expected by most experts. Though, because you can not endlessly falling. "After the fall of the GDP, investment, and for the first time in the last 15 years a sharp decline in living standards of the population in 2015-2016, it was logical to expect a certain correction," writes research Director of Gaidar Institute Sergey Drobyshevsky in the November issue of "monitoring of the economic situation in Russia."
"the Economy has adapted to the sanctions and counter-sanctions, as well as the relatively low oil prices, says the Director of the Institute of strategic analysis of company FBK Igor Nikolaev. Besides, prices for oil have grown in recent times when compared with the same early 2016, when they were at 30 $ per barrel". The only problem is that this growth has proved unsustainable and short-lived. "The growth fizzles," — says Nikolaev, Oktyabrsky analyzing the statistics of Rosstat.
the Data of Rosstat in October really discouraged. Real incomes of Russians in October fell by 1.3% in annual terms. Before that, they two months decreased by 0.3%. With real incomes declining for the fourth consecutive year, in 2013, they decreased by 11%, according to international rating Agency Fitch. The growth of retail turnover slowed to 3% (in September was 3.1 percent) is very small, given the low base. All in all, the first three quarters (January — September), the growth of retail turnover amounted to a pathetic 0.5 per cent. In the construction in October decreased by 3.1%, while in September the growth was 0.1%. Investment growth, though still positive, but is also slowing: in the III quarter it was 3.4% vs. 6.3% in the second quarter. GDP growth was only 1.6% instead of 1.8%.
What happened? Nothing special, just, as mentioned above, the growth was regeneration, and his life has been exhausted. The economy is in its normal, unfortunately, the condition. Because the slowdown started even before the sanctions and the sharp fall in oil prices. So, in 2012 GDP grew by 3.5% in the average annual price of Brent oil in 111,62 dollars per barrel. And next year the growth in GDP was just 1.3%, while oil fell by only $ 3 — to 108,56 dollars per barrel. And in 2013 there was a sharp deceleration, and the deceleration began even earlier — and all this against the background of high oil prices. The reason lies in the accumulated structural problems.
the"Golden age" of Europe?
in the meantime, almost the entire rest of the world is entering a new phase of growth. According to the latest data from the International monetary Fund, the world economy will grow this year by 3.6%, while average growth in developing countries will amount to 4.6% and in developed for 2.2%.
"Europe is entering a Golden age," write the economists of Credit Suisse and Oxford Economics. The Eurozone's problems related to sovereign debt, record unemployment, almost deflation, which threatened the collapse of the monetary Union, is gradually starting to weaken. The region is still in distress, but those signs of improvement, which there are observed, talking about the beginning of a new cycle of growth.
For 2017 economists whom polls by Bloomberg, eight times increased the GDP growth forecast for the Eurozone. The European Commission raised its growth forecast for the Eurozone from 1.7% to 2.2% by the end of 2017. The international monetary Fund in its October report noted that accelerates growth in Europe will have a positive impact on the entire global economy.
the US has another reason to celebrate: the latest projection by the International energy Agency and OPEC talking about the rapid growth of shale production in the country in the next 5-7 years. This directly contradicts sounded before the statements that the market of shale oil began to stagnate. And the production of conventional oil is slowly but surely growing. Well, we should especially hope that oil prices will rush sharply up and again pull us out of the crisis.
hanging out around zero
For Russia 2018 is not going to be very happy in terms of the economy. The Bank of Russia predicts growth of no more than 1.5—2% when the price of oil to $ 42 per barrel, with an oil price of $ 60. According to Igor Nikolayev of FBK, these expectations are too optimistic: such growth is simply nowhere to take. "Our forecast: "hanging out" around 0%", — says Nikolay.
Such a low growth rate can be kept quite long, up to 5-7 years, says associate Professor of financial markets and financial engineering of Ranhigs Sergei hestanov. Something similar has happened in times of stagnation, in the decline of the Soviet Union, the economist reminds.
the Fact that such a situation is dangerous, see above. In March 2017 at the Congress of the Russian Union of Industrialists and entrepreneurs Vladimir Putin said that the Cabinet of Ministers prepares a comprehensive plan of action that will allow the economy to grow at a rate above the world average by 2020. That is, two years later.
"Our economy can grow at a rate of 3% and 4% per year", — said the head of the Central Bank Elvira Nabiullina, speaking last week before the state Duma deputies. What do you need? Measures, in General, sounded the last ten years, if not more, memorized, and they only Nabiullina said, must be "taken structural measures: to increase labour productivity, labour mobility, improve the investment climate"...
All of this is beyond the competence of the Central Bank. In the hands of the Central Bank — maintaining low invazii because it is impossible without sustainable growth, Nabiullina believes. However, the inflation rate of the Central Bank to guarantee alone can not.
Record low inflation in Russia today is not only the merit policy of the Central Bank, not only a consequence of the catastrophic decline of consumption, but also the result of poorly developed infrastructure, primarily storage of agricultural products and logistics.
"the current slowdown in inflation 2.6% led including a record harvest, — said the head of the Central Bank. — But the price of agricultural products fell not only because it is just a good harvest, but because the farmers, the farmers are forced to sell it as quickly as possible at competitive prices because of the lack of infrastructure for storage of products. And if, due to poor storage stocks of crops will decrease, then again may occur a rise in prices for fruit and vegetables. This is the volatility of inflation. This is a harmful phenomenon that we need to deal with. But this requires joint efforts with the government," — said Nabiullina.
Efforts are also needed in order to form Russia's investment climate, says Elvira, because the main source of development is the capital, not borrowed funds. "It is important that the economy formed the capital to the business is not afraid to invest their funds in the form of investments... you Need a good investment climate, to develop its corporate governance practices, transparency of enterprises, lists the head of the Central Bank. — High interest rates — this includes payment for the risks associated with the fact that some borrowers businesses are not transparent enough, they have a complicated ownership structure (often offshore), confusing, unclear management structure. So, of course, investors do not want to invest in these businesses and in the best case they lend. It is also important factors to overcome structural constraints in the economy."
to grow at a rate above the world average, as he wants the Russian President, the investment climate must be improved substantially, with serious monetary injections. For this purpose, the Russian economy needs 5 trillion rubles of investments per year, said in September the Minister of economic development Maxim Oreshkin.
No chance to grow at a rate above the world average in the coming years, we do not, said Igor Nikolayev of FBK.
Reasons: the current growth exhausted, sanctions will increase oil prices at a relatively low level, to implement structural reforms has by and large not even begun.
"Even if "suddenly" the reforms will begin immediately after the presidential election in March 2018, to succeed corny takes time. This is the specificity of structural reforms, — says Nikolaev. — That is the dreamers of the MAYOR is to be hoped that global economic growth will be much lower than forecast".
According to Sergey Rouslan, neither of which opening the economy could not speak, until deregulation, are not reduced taxes and not the real protection of private property. Do you believe this will happen in the next year or two?
What can be done here and now
the Likelihood that "new old" team will begin to do what you did the previous 18 years, is extremely small. So, we must look for ways to grow in the current conditions — the current personalities and realities.
In mid-November, a famous Russian economist Yakov Mirkin, head of international capital markets, Institute of world economy and international relations Russian Academy of Sciences, proposed to create "the administration of growth": the Agency, the purpose of which is to spur the growth of the Russian economy. "This is a team, personally responsible for the fact that the economy is no longer crawling, not hanging around zero, and goes into a state of stayers, rhythmically and at high speed covering a long distance," writes Mirkin column in "the Russian newspaper". According to him, this administration existed in all countries that have made an economic breakthrough, — from postwar Europe to the "Asian tigers".
"ministries and agencies are overloaded with routine, when the trees hide the forest, — says Mirkin. — Russia is the world's largest manufacturer strategies, concepts and long-term programs but they come to pass on several tens of percent, not more. We have created a unique economy, "errands", when all those at the top, piled with incoming and outgoing, and even direct instructions to the persons executed far not completely." "The administration of growth" will have to act on the principle of anti — crisis headquarters "with special powers, without further approvals, with direct access to top officials", the only way to achieve growth of 3.5—4% per year. Over time, this administration needs to grow into a development Institute, which will be engaged in key projects, which will depend on the modernization of Russia.
meanwhile, in the near future this administration could push through the initiatives of Boris Titov, authorized under the RF President on protection of entrepreneurs ' rights, said Yakov Mirkin.
Boris Titov, who late last week decided to become a candidate for the presidency of Russia, suggested to legalize the shadow small business. Today the country's 15 million people are completely excluded from the formal sector of the economy. Almost half of total employment in 44.8%, and at least once worked informally or were paid in envelopes during the last year. And this is the official data of the Ministry of labor. Moreover, the state contributed to the fact that small business is left in the shadow in recent years, I'm sure Titov.
According to estimates of the business Ombudsman, if you take the bulk of the "garage economy" in the legal field, it will increase Russia's GDP by 2.5%, and by 2025 the number of the created small business jobs will rise from 26% to 45%, and the contribution of small and medium enterprises in GDP will increase from 20% to 30%.
To make these figures become a reality, indicates Titov, it is necessary to implement a program that includes five points:
1. Deregulation: reform of the self-employed, to introduce a moratorium on inspections, except for life-threatening cases to limit operational activities of the Ministry of interior public Prosecutor's supervision.
2. Ensuring access to Finance.
3. Infrastructure development and compensation of expenses on mandatory payments.
4. The release of defected in the legal field businessmen from liability for economic crimes of the administrative code and article 171 ("Illegal business") and 159 (Fraud) of the criminal code.
5. Strengthening of responsibility for illegal activities after implementation of the program.
And that local authorities were more interested in stimulating small business development in their territory, Titov proposes to leave in the municipalities 75% of the growth of taxes from SMEs.
it is small
How effective would be these measures? Sergei hestanov is still skeptical about them, considering that in the best case initiatives Titova could balance the budget and pritormozite inflation, but structural changes in the economy will not.
Igor Nikolaev is more optimistic. "Garage production" seems to me more promising than the "administration of growth", — says Igor Nikolaev. — I think that without the "administration of growth" you can do. It is not essential, and organizational action. But the stimulation of the "garage economy" — that's right, it's just aimed at solving our structural problems. First and foremost, it should increase the share of small business in the economy. But only due to this we, of course, the situation is not correct".
of Course, reforms require many industries. But it is likely that small business and individual entrepreneurship is a niche that could actually produce results and which does not require too great sacrifices on the part of the current government. Multiple crises around the world have shown that most quickly adapt to the crisis small businesses and individual entrepreneurs. If people can't interfere, then they will be able to feed themselves, and give work to others.
Milena BAKHVALOVA, Banki.ru
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