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Rates on foreign currency deposits continue to grow, however, citizens do not rush to take their savings in banks. Are they right and what instruments it is best to invest dollars and euros, understand Banks ru.
the foreign Currency deposits will go up?
the Deposits in foreign currency for a long time remained in a General trend, the yields declined along with the ruble deposits rate of the Central Bank. And strengthening of the Russian ruble did not contribute to their popularity among the citizens. According to the Analytical center of the NAFI, the share of Russians who make savings in foreign currency, for the last three years has decreased from 19% to 13%. However, only 20% of small depositors to open deposits in dollars and euros. In the end, the volume of deposits in foreign currency in ruble equivalent has been steadily falling since the start of the year it fell by 6.5% and amounted to 5.35 trillion rubles. "Causes and rates, and falling real incomes, and confidence in the banking system on the background of the Central Bank to reduce the number of banks", — says head of information-analytical Department of the Banks.ru Sabina Hasanova. According to her, the volume of deposits is growing due to the ruble deposits.
Everything changed in October, when the largest retail player in the savings Bank increased the yield on deposits in US dollars. Moreover, once the three. The yield boosted from 0.01% to 0.6—1.35% per annum. Increased the rate for deposits for a term up to three years. After Sberbank increased the yield of deposits and the second largest state Bank VTB, on average by 0.4 percentage points. The actions of state-owned banks became the signal for the other participants who have also started to increase rates in October, the annual deposits in dollars rose by 0.12 percentage points, to 1.24% per annum.
If fulfilled, the forecast of the Ministry of Finance and Ministry of economic development and the U.S. dollar exchange rate will reach 63-65 rubles (forecast in 2018), then by buying now dollars, the investor will receive about 11% per annum. But it's the yield in rubles. And in the case of ruble appreciation, the investor runs the risk, on the contrary, to obtain damages, since the yield of deposits in dollars and euros, which are offered by banks that will not allow to neutralize the effect of the devaluation of the dollar. According to the Banks.ru, now the maximum yield, which can be received by a Russian investor, is 2.5—2.8% per annum (in dollars), but often it is necessary to have a substantial amount of money and keep the money in the Bank to three, and even five years.
will continue to grow deposits in dollars and euros? The experts have no opinions. According to managing Director of retail products Absolut Bank Anton Pavlov, in perspective, the rate for deposits in dollars you can add an additional 0.5—1 percentage points since the fed will continue to tighten policy. But deposits in euros, said the banker, will remain unchanged, as ECB market sees no action to raise interest rates. Among other factors, which may lead to a rise in interest rates, the main analyst of the Bank Natalia Vasilyuk calls suspension this fall operations foreign currency REPO for the banks. "We can expect that in December, interest rates on foreign currency deposits will rise by 0.1—0.3 percentage points, but in early 2018, will adjust down: traditionally at the end of the year the banks increased the demand for foreign currency liquidity," she says.
But in VTB 24, by contrast, expect growth of profitability of foreign currency deposits. "The big stimulus to involve foreign exchange savings due to the rise in rates, banks are now there, so rates on foreign currency deposits will not undergo significant changes", — predicts the head of Department of marketing strategy and research VTB 24 Dmitry Lepetikov.
the Bonds are not for all
On the background of Bank deposits the yield on Russian Eurobonds looks more attractive. Portal Banks.ru presented the paper of the largest companies in the oil and gas and financial sectors. For example, the yield of Eurobonds of Rosneft with a maturity in 2022 is of 3.87% per annum, and investing in some editions of "Gazprom" can count on a 5.4—5.5% per annum. If you invest 10 thousand dollars in Gazprom Eurobonds with maturity in 2034, in addition to the growth rates of the bonds, the investor will receive twice a year the coupon income at a rate of 8,63% per annum.
estimated the Manager of research and Analytics PSB Alexander Polyutov now yield Russian Eurobonds are near the minimum values over the past five years, but they still look more attractive deposits. Exception — Eurobonds of the Ministry of Finance (maturing in 2019-2020), the yield of which is in the area of 2.3—2.6% per annum. For companies in the extractive sector interest rates on bonds for a period of three years starting from 3-3. 5% per annum. "The longer maturity corporate Eurobonds, the higher their profitability," said Polutov. However, warns the financier, risks are increased, as in the case of deterioration in global markets or the introduction of new sanctions the price of Russian Eurobonds to decline.
In this case, the best option for investors is to buy high-quality Eurobond issuers with a rating not lower than "BB+"/"BBB-" and maturity within 3-5 years. The yield on these securities is currently 3-3,5% per annum. "The ability of the largest Russian companies to pay debts is not in doubt: their financial status is quite stable. The probability of default is comparable to the probability of default of Russia", — says senior analyst of investment company "Alpari" the novel Tkachuk. But the purchase of Eurobonds borrowers with a lower rating, according to Polutov, associated with greater risk. "Although the return on them is higher to 3.8—4.3 percent per annum," he adds.
market Participants recommend to pay attention to Eurobonds of a major mining and metallurgical companies, including Gazprom, Evraz, Gazpromneft, LUKOIL, NLMK, "Severstal", "Norilsk Nickel". "Ratio "profitability — risk" Bank preferred securities," — said Tkachuk. According to the Chairman of the Board of Directors of UK "VTB Capital asset management" Vladimir Potapov, are also popular now are the bonds of EuroChem, TMK, and Global ports c maturing in the years 2020-2022.
Plus investment in Eurobonds that, in contrast to the contribution, the term of which is limited by agreement with the Bank, the holder may sell them on the exchange, selecting the most favorable course. But there are limitations. "Unskilled investors can buy Russian Eurobonds on the Moscow exchange, but the liquidity of this segment on the stock exchange is extremely low, and the selection is very limited," says the head of the Department of market analysis "Opening Broker" Konstantin Bushuev. In addition, like the head of asset management fixed income UK "TKB investment partners" Igor Kozak, the entry threshold is limited by a sufficiently large standard lot size for Eurobonds: as a rule, for Russian Eurobonds is 100-200 thousand dollars.
Also, investors should remember that future costs related to the acquisition and sale of Eurobonds. Estimated General Director of IC "freedom Finance" Timur Turlov on, the size of such costs can reach up to 1% of transaction amount. It is possible that even have to pay to the Depositary. "Foreign Depository may charge a fee in the amount of from 0.5% to 2% of the value of the securities. Russian depositories generally do not charge separately charge for storage, but all costs associated with re-registration of securities transferred to the investor," says Turlov.
Stocks and mutual Funds
Significantly higher yield can give investing in foreign stocks and mutual funds and exchange traded funds (ETFs). For example, the Fund company FinEx (the only ETF traded on the Moscow exchange and available unskilled investor) investing in U.S. stocks for the year was 21.5% in dollars. ETF technology companies in the U.S. over the same period accounted for 35.8%. The most profitable exchange-traded Fund of Chinese stocks under the control of FinEx, the result showed 38%.
"We advise the investor in a position amounting to several thousand dollars, to invest in different funds. Due to the fact that the price of one share of the ETF is only a few thousand rubles, you can easily create a diversified portfolio," says the Executive Director of the management company Finex Plus LLC Vladimir Kreindel. The most optimal strategy, he said, to allocate investment between funds that invest in stocks of different countries and different classes of tools.
Buying ETFs on the exchange is not the only way for a private investor to participate in the growth of foreign markets. Another option is to buy the paper on the St. Petersburg stock exchange, which puts quotes on more than 500 issuers. Turlov of "freedom Finance" advises to pay attention to us stocks.
"The dollar is one of the safest currencies in the world, so dollar investments to a lesser extent exposed to currency risk," he notes. In addition, the financier, the us economy is growing steadily in recent years.
At the same time, citizens who are accustomed to place money in Bank deposits, may feel psychological discomfort because the very large stock of the Issuer is also subject to volatility and may have serious medium-term drawdown before resuming growth. "Stock returns compared to deposits may be a multiple greater, but the risk of losses in case of wrong choice of object of investment is also huge," warns Bush of "Opening Broker". Therefore, he believes, when investing in equities, especially foreign ones, it is important to have expert analytical support.
From this point of view as an alternative currency deposits, you may want to consider mutual funds. On the Russian market of collective investments quite a lot of mutual Funds invest in foreign securities. Unlike private investors, Fund managers use a powerful analytical support, and this, according to Vladimir Potapov them "VTB Capital asset management" is very important when making decisions, especially when choosing investment strategy in foreign securities. "If Russian companies have investors there is some idea, concerning foreign issuers familiarity may be limited to just brand awareness," he says.
in addition, in contrast to unqualified investors, managers aren't just limited to shares traded on Russian stock markets, or Eurobonds domestic companies. Often it allows UK to earn money for shareholders higher returns. According to Igor Kozak from "TKB investment partners", in the portfolios of mutual Funds managed by his company have Eurobonds issuers in various countries. In particular, the Fund "TKB investment partners — the foreign currency bonds Fund," half of the assets invested in Eurobonds of foreign issuers. This, according to the Manager, allows not only to diversify the portfolio, but also to make more money. "In a relatively conservative eurobonded strategies we expect to deliver a yield of about 5.5—6% in dollars, while the Russian market does not give such possibility," explains Kozak. He does not recommend investors to invest in Russian Eurobonds, because their yield is low and the potential for further reduction of yields and spreads that is generated by volatility in 2014 has already been completely played out.
albert KOSHKAROV, Banki.ru
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