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Banks often offer higher rates for short-term deposits. The Central Bank noted the increase in the share of short-term deposits and consider that in the case of stress it can lead to a significant outflow of deposits and impact liquidity.
Experts predict that in conditions of declining inflation rates on deposits will become less and suggest you look at the stock market instruments.
Again for 8.55
Credit institutions increasingly offer higher rates for short-term deposits. This trend is noted in the analytical service of the portal.ru. So, for deposits with a validity of three months, as well as on annual contributions, stakes reach of 8.55%. This is 3.5 times higher than the current annual inflation rate, which according to the Ministry of economy is 2.4%.
"There is a possibility that in 2018, the trend towards reduction of the key rate will continue. Accordingly, to reduce the cost of loans. Therefore, it is unprofitable for banks to take interest rate risk and to attract funds from the public for a long period. Many investors, in turn, prefer to invest for a short time at an attractive rate, so at the end of term to find a more profitable product. But the most common annual contribution remains popular," — says the analyst of Banks.ru Julia Osewa.
While the deposits on the long term offers less. Today on the market are about 150 deposits attract three years with a yield of 8% per annum, of which 89 are replenished, and the rates on them are lower by 1.5—2 percentage points. Five years to invest in several banks, the interest rates on their deposits significantly below average, and the amount of the contribution should be impressive.
the Contribution to the risk of liquidity loss
the upward Trend in short-term deposits noted in the Central Bank.
"In the banking sector since the beginning of 2015 increased share of short-term deposits of individuals from 35% to 56%. In II—III quarters of 2017 this figure continued to grow. This trend is a result of the policy of banks on the optimization of interest rate risk in the conditions of temporary (medium-term) period of high interest rates", — stated in the financial stability report of the Bank of Russia.
the Regulator believes that this trend in the case of stress can lead to occurrence of liquidity risk in the form of a sharp outflow of deposits and also affect interest margins. Replenished deposits are also a source of interest rate risk for credit institutions.
the"Additional interest rate risk of banks associated with the widespread use of "optimalnosti" contributions: the past crisis has revealed the risks of the top-up deposits, but their distribution is not reduced, as deposits with an early withdrawal. Similarly, on the credit side develop refinancing mechanisms, making the interest rates on operations of banks with individuals unilaterally fixed," — noted in the Central Bank.
the Customers like deposits longer?
Experts say that banks now tend to do short-term deposits, partly the reason was the lesson learned in 2015-2016.
"we Need to remember the end of 2014, when the key rate of the Central Bank soared to a level of 17% and high rates on deposits: many Bank customers are then issued a renewable deposits at high interest rates and, accordingly, continued to extend," explains the analyst GK "ALOR" Alexey Antonov, Recalling that for many banks, lost payments on expensive deposits, this has resulted in the revocation of the license.
"For customers attractive are long-term deposits. As it is usually more than the interest rate than short-term deposits, and also there are different bonuses from banks. The only drawback of this Deposit for clients is the inability to use the money before the deadline", — says head of investment management of RosEvroBank Oleg Yeltsov.
the Placement of money for a short period is more beneficial for clients who do not agree with it the analyst of Bank ratings Agency "Expert RA" Anastasia Bakhtizina.
"For customers become a more attractive short-term deposits. When selecting a contribution for one year with the completion of the Bank often reduces the interest rate by one percentage point. The result is that the rate on the Deposit for three or six months without replenishment higher than for one year from completion. So, for the investor is more profitable to open a short contribution without replenishment. Even with a further reduction of the key rate of the placement of funds in deposits for a period of 3-6 months is more beneficial to the client in the absence of plans for a manifold increase in the original amount of the Deposit. In General, the use of this investment instrument like Bank deposits, will be attractive as long as there will remain a substantial gap, inflation and interest rates on deposits", — says Bakhtizina.
the Head of relationships with wealthy clients and non-credit products Raiffeisenbank Damien Leclere indicates that in conditions of declining key interest rates banks offer their customers the most attractive rates on the horizon up to a year. "In front of the client, in turn, have the choice to invest funds for a short term at a favorable rate or to invest for a longer period with a fixed rate on the Deposit. A good alternative to long-term deposits can now be called mutual funds, the profitability of which is determined primarily by market activity, he says. — Condition of occurrence of the deposits for a period of several years, in the first place, is the stability of the economy."
the Trend of choosing short-term deposits note not all credit institutions. "Our customers choose the period of Deposit for a year or more, since the continuing financial market downward trend in interest rates on deposits have an opportunity to fix the rate for a longer period. Deposits longer than five years can be demanded by clients, subject to regular partial withdrawal," — said the press service of the RNCB.
"a depositor who wants to insure the risk of declining interest rates, there's always this possibility: if the posted amount is significant, the investor may be a large part of it to put for 3-6 months. And at the same time to open the reloadable long Deposit the minimum amount in the Bank with a good rating, fixing the rate for the year. Upon expiration of short Deposit, the depositor can make a decision to place money in a short re-Deposit or transfer the entire amount of the annual contribution," advises Anastasia Bakhtizina.
inflation is set to
According to experts, when speaking about return of contributions, it is necessary to compare it with inflation.
"for Example, earlier, before the crisis interest rates on deposits slightly exceeded the level of inflation. While there is now much more advantageous for investors situation: with inflation of 2.5—3% interest rates on deposits ranging at level 6,5—7,5%" — indicates Bakhtizina.
According to Alexei Antonov, a stable 4-5% annual inflation rate will lead to the fact that the profitability of all investment instruments will fall. "We need to wean itself from high interest rates, in the next 3-4 years, hopefully, will not. Because their growth will mean the beginning of a new crisis. I think nobody wants that. For example: the yield from rental housing is also falling, from 7-8% before the crisis to 3-4% now, given the increasing taxes. In General, the citizens it's time to expand your horizons in part to the conservative investment instruments, and the government actively pushes to this, for example, producing "folk" OFZ", — says Alexei Antonov.
"People will increasingly get used to bonds, stocks, mutual Funds and other investment products, i.e. start the process of diversification of savings. In the US the rate for deposits in the range of 2% in the best case, therefore, the entire population invests savings and a strong stock market. In Russia, little understood and constantly growing companies, so the securities market a lot of risks, but evolutionary there will come more people," — said Dace.
Anna PONOMAREVA, Banki.ru
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