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The size of the pot is no longer a guarantee of stability as well as good financial performance, and capital of credit institutions is increasingly found "holes". Thus, the analysis of banks through financial statements is more difficult from the point of view of understanding the real situation. However, in any Bank, you can find clues about its future.
How to know that the Bank dies
the license of the Bank or its reorganization, the market for already more familiar reality than a surprise. Even against the biggest players.
In just one 2017 the market has left the Bank "Ugra" and had to urgently send to the procedure of financial recovery, such giants as "FC Opening" and the Bank, together with banks that sanitized themselves.
In November 2017 in charge of banking supervision, first Deputy Central Bank Chairman Dmitry Tulin is definitely given to understand that sanitation can be applied to other large banks. "We always say that we do not exclude the further application of the new mechanism of financial recovery. Because he (Foundation for the consolidation of the banking sector. — Approx. Banks.ru) was established as a system solution for future problems, symptoms of which may be, or may be detected later. And he be imprisoned for banks whose failure, for whatever reasons, is unacceptable from the point of view of the authorities, said Tulin. — If the bankruptcy can cause the destabilization of financial and social, apparently, so we are talking about major banks and systemically significant by the Federal and regional level."
Such background information makes ordinary citizens to quickly increase their own financial literacy on their own and become at least a little not ordinary analysts: to learn how to read Bank statements, monitor the news agenda, trying to extract the insides.
And present condition of some banks is, indeed, possible to "break" on public data.
If you look at covered by the media events and statements over the Russian banks whose licenses were revoked in recent months, it is easy to see the warning signs that preceded the terminal to future shocks.
Mfbank (licence revoked October 4, 2017) for the 12 months preceding the revocation of the license, went into considerable for its size decreased. If on October 1, 2016, the credit institution showed a small but profit (17.8 million rubles), in September of 2017 scored a net loss of 300 million rubles. In addition, in August 2017 Bank "dipped" in all major indicators: assets, profit, capital, credit and Deposit portfolios. Especially negative news background the Bank was not observed, however, a few months before the revocation of the license of the Central Bank of the Russian Federation has attracted leaders Mfbank to administrative responsibility.
the Bank "Arsenal" lost their license on 21 September 2017, with the spring of last year about a dozen times reduced the rates on its deposits. Often, banks pursue a policy of progressive reduction of Deposit rates in connection with the requirement of the CBR. In January 2017, it became known that Arsenal indeed stopped accepting additional contributions into accounts just because of the requirements of the regulator.
the Regulator has revoked the license of the Russian International Bank on 4 September 2017. At the time of credit the organization had a loss in excess of 1.3 billion rubles. For the Bank's top-200 by assets is not very important. However, reporting is seen that a month before the revocation of the license of a credit organization "lost" assets of 5.6 billion (or 23.5%), its total loan portfolio decreased by RUB 3.3 billion (or 20.3%), while retail Deposit portfolio — by 4.1 billion rubles (over 27%).
prior To this, in August of 2017, the Bank has stopped issuing deposits and interest thereon. And then announced the closure of two Moscow branches ("Dobryninskaya" and "Kursk") in connection with restrictions of the Central Bank. "The Central Bank imposed restrictions, whereby the Bank formed the low liquidity and the outflow of funds. In offices simply do not have money, we do not support, and therefore we are closed", — said portal.PY: number-the center of Russian International Bank.
the earlier of these events at the Bank it was not possible to open the contribution "for technical reasons". And even earlier, in July of this year, Russian international Bank announced the impending change of ownership.
the Bank "Severo-East Alliance" has lost the license on August 21, 2017. For the year (August 2016) a credit institution "fell" on all the financial indicators. Also, the Bank twice in December 2016 and January 2017, showed the value of capital adequacy ratio N1.0 below the prescribed 10%.
Who sits on the "red zone"
On the basis of statements the company the company "Intalev" amounted to an annual efficiency rating of 50 largest Russian banks, shared with the portal.ru. In the study by the end of 2016 was estimated three metrics: efficiency, effectiveness, and efficiency.
As you can see from the rating, the Bank "Ugra", which became one of the main topics in the banking market in 2017, and in the past is in the "red zone" for almost all analyzed indicators. He has negative productivity, that is, he was not able to achieve the actual growth of earnings relative to their previous results, 2015. "Ugra" was the outsider economy: the credit institution was required to significantly increase the volume of assets to achieve their results. Analysts of the company "Intalev" brought "Yugra" to inefficient banks.
it Should be noted that "FC Opening" and b & n into the rating of the company "Intalev" at the end of 2016, mainly in the "green zone" on all counts.
* It was considered efficient banks that were able to be both effective and economical. This means that their profit increased, and total assets for its establishment was reduced.
the efficiency Rating of Russian banks
"Our ranking shows only one thing: was the Bank effective in their activities according to the results of 2016. Where the winner is the one who is a smaller amount of assets made greater amount of profit in relation to its results for the previous year. And nothing more. The calculation is done on the basis of official statements from the Central Bank's website. There are places in the ranking of the banks are not depending on the opinions of its drafters, and depending on their own results specified in the put statements, — says Director of methodology GK "Intalev" Boris Karabanov. — Good seats in 2016, "FC Opening" and b & n was compared to 2015. That is from 2015 to the next, 2016, has been a positive trend. And sanitation, they were in 2017. Thus, when we do the ranking for 2017, in relation to the results for 2016 at home will also be in the "red zone". While the Bank "Ugra" in 2016 showed bad trends towards 2015. But the problematic of the Central Bank of the Russian Federation considered only in 2017. That is, the positive dynamics of one period, as in any other business, not a guarantee of it in the next. After all, life goes on and everything changes."
a Similar position and the analyst it is information-analytical Department of the Banks.ru Alexander Kudryavtsev.
"According to our estimates, no ratings, and rankings could not affect the final decision of the Central Bank of the Russian Federation in case of problems of a Bank. The Central Bank has its own methodology of assessing the financial position of credit institutions, fixed at the legislative level. CBR, in terms of oversight, has much wider access to information about the financial situation of the Bank and on the basis of the analysis of these data makes its decisions," — said Kudryavtsev.
the Domestic is not always better
If you as an ordinary customer of the Bank decided to "connect" with his statements to be "ready", the first advice from the experts — looking statements prepared according to international standards (IFRS) rather than Russian (RAS).
As explained by Alexander Kudryavtsev, IFRS is considered by market participants more representative, because it shows a more complete picture of the financial condition (consolidated), and also because in its basis the principle of prevalence of economic substance of transactions over their legal aspect.
"IFRS is more perfect and transparent, but has serious disadvantages. Usually she prepares no more than one or two times a year (the company — monthly), and in Russia, the Bank can switch from the normal state into the verge of much faster. Especially when it comes to conducting questionable transactions or deliberate withdrawal of assets.
In addition, IFRS aggregated and lacks a number of important indicators available on RAS (Russian accounting standards. — Approx. Banks.PY). Also, while there is an Institute "convenient" auditors, ready for a little money to give a positive opinion on ambiguous from the point of view of reliability of financial statements IFRS," says associate Director on Bank ratings "Expert RA" Vyacheslav Putilovsky.
the Managing Director of the National rating Agency (NRA) Pavel Samiyev also advises to pay attention to IFRS. This type of reporting is more relevant for financial risk analysis and credit worthiness of the Bank due to the fact that a number of indicators ("bad" assets, delay, evaluation of non-credit assets on the balance sheet of the Bank) are stated in IFRS more correct in comparison with RAS.
"however, for The average consumer, i.e. for someone who does not own professional financial analysis, any reporting will be confusing and is often incorrectly read. Not because the ordinary consumer is not able to make reasoned conclusions based on financial analysis, but because, in principle, reporting is a sort of base for professional analysts. However, there is no such language in which it was impossible to lie or falsify statements. In this sense, IFRS, too, in a sense, "languages", — says Samiev.
liar, Liar, liar
Ratings and rankings based on any reporting lately of faith is almost there. It is understandable that neither the deceased, the Bank, almost exactly a healthy "hole" in the balance sheet. That is false reporting. Given the ongoing "cleansing" of the market regulator issues to such cases more and more.
One analyst constituting the various rankings of retail banks, shared with the Banks.ru his vision problems.
"I'm doing the rankings, that is Rangiroa banks on any particular indicator for several years. Once I confess: never in this process did not pass me "without a hitch, without a hitch". Almost every ranking I have to force several banks to convert certain parameters. Because, for example, I see that the Bank told me the volume of car loan portfolio by 20% in excess of the volume of its retail loan portfolio, — says the analyst. — And every time. If thoroughly all not to check, will come out a lot of "stocks". Of course, then it turns out that the Bank failed to read or understand what I required of him in terms of numbers, but increasingly sneaking suspicion that he did it on purpose, in the hope that it will show in the ranking great numbers, and forgery no one will notice. Although it is actually a fraud notice even ordinary readers of the media — after all, the level of financial literacy is increasing. If any media reprints my ranking, but it is at least a microscopic bug, lightning telling lies readers will lead the Bank (and along with me as inconsiderate of the author) to clean water."
Alexander Kudryavtsev from Banks.ru admits: indeed, in recent years, the increasingly common charges of banks and their employees in false accounting, which in turn adversely affects the various ratings and rankings. However, if the rating uses a comprehensive approach, the falsification of statements of the individual banks will not introduce significant systematic distortion of information. The clients of the banks, of course, do not take everything at face value, and the need to adopt a critical approach to the analysis of ratings data, says the analyst of Banks.ru.
According to Kudryavtseva, to combat false reporting can and should be. "As with all laws in our country, there is need to study the legislation is not in line with the tightening of responsibility of specific individuals, and in the direction of inevitability of punishment. Then over time the situation may change for the better", — the analyst believes.
the Rating Agency is not to blame
Pavel Samiev from the NRA points out: it makes no sense to blame the analyst or rating Agency in the wrong prediction, if it was built on the wrong data.
"the rating Agency cannot access non-public data Bank, and it has no right to carry out checks of the Bank — unlike CB. Thus, if the Bank has aimed to hide some information about yourself, then it is much easier to hide it from the Agency than from the regulator. Anyway, the methodologies of rating agencies there is always some set of indicators, which indirectly may reveal the falsification and inconsistencies in the statements to suggest that the Bank has any hidden problems," says Samiev.
"it is Important to understand what the rating, he adds. — This is not a recommendation, not a guarantee and not a promise. The rating is probabilistic characteristic: forecast and analysis of the rating Agency, in which it with some probability suggests that in the future will happen with a specific Bank. And this probability is never equal to zero, that is, can be promptly revised according to changes in the microeconomic situation, or some action of the Bank."
Samiev pay attention: there are many examples of banks (the same Bank Peresvet, Vneshprombank), which lost its license, having high rankings, but subsequently, after the inspection of the interim administration, have shown a false reporting. This means that the rating Agency used incorrect information on such banks and their forecast was also inaccurate.
"is There wine agencies and analysts? No. They were guided by the data that was in their hands. Worked with them, their "felt" for him and voiced their opinion. Would be in their hands "clean" data, they would be able to give a more accurate analysis," says managing Director of the NRA.
"the Facts of manipulation and falsification of reporting is becoming more and more for many reasons, one of the main toughening of supervision of banks due to their weak financial performance cannot fulfill the increasingly demanding requirements of the regulator and trying to embellish the real situation. Perhaps the situation will change with the introduction of the law on the division of banking licenses in the universal and basic, while for banks with a base license will be simplified Supervisory actions, which in turn may remove the need to interfere with the requirements of the Central Bank and to falsify statements", hopes Alexander Kudryavtsev from Banks.ru.
According to him, currently the Central Bank of the Russian Federation are quite few working tools at an early stage to identify abuse reporting, and even field inspection can not always help to identify these facts, if against CBR are skilled artists. "This situation is similar to fight "piracy": it is strangled by the "pirates" are always one step ahead and come up with new schemes and methods of bypass of requirements of the legislation", — said the expert.
Vyacheslav Putilovsky from "Expert RA" sees several reasons for the massive fraud reporting in the banking market.
the First and most important need of banks to stay afloat to hide the existing holes and abuse in the conditions of toughening of supervision. "Besides, it's not uncommon for the shareholders and actively use banks that collect funds from the market, to Fund their own business (sometimes — risky). There are a number of legal structures which allow to underestimate in reporting the level of captively Bank, says the Putilov. — The Bank of Russia is actively fighting against this phenomenon, but so far the results are mixed. Not fully eradicated and "arsonists" who, openly or secretly gaining control, organise on the basis of the Bank's "industrial" questionable conduct of the operations or output quality of assets (impaired replacing them). The Bank then loses their license, and a group of said persons passes to the next Bank."
Grocery widget And a few statements
As pointed out by the majority of surveyed Banks.ru experts, one reporting to rely when attempting to analyze the state your Bank can not. It is important to consider a number of factors.
According to Vyacheslav Putilov, there are many ways of falsifying Bank statements. And this activity is constantly improved by the forces of "good" bankers.
"Formal assessment of the sustainability of the Bank only statements may not be representative. Decision on assignment of ratings shall be made on the basis of the analysis is not so much the quality of reporting, as the quality of banking activities. In addition to reporting, study background the quality of corporate governance, the quality of development and implementation of the development strategy, system risk management and so on — indicates Putilov. — A cross-system indicators and benchmarks prescribed in the methodology of rating agencies.
The Bank may "draw" one or more of these indicators, but it will cause distortion of other indicators and triggering other "red flags". All "draw" is almost impossible. The Agency also draws attention to unjustified from the economic point of view, actions or investments of the Bank. Even using a limited amount of the Bank's public reporting, it is possible to identify weaknesses in the Bank and negative trends in its development. Special attention is paid to atypical ratios in the structure of balance or speed, which are difficult to explain in economic activities of a particular Bank".
in Addition, the rating action (upgrade or downgrade of the Bank), the Putilov advises to pay attention to interest rates on deposits above-market and mass advertising, the negative articles in the press and on specialized forums, the reputation of the auditor who conducts the audit of the Bank. In addition, can help the user reviews, specialized resources, which contains information that the Bank is delaying in any way the performance of its obligations (including technical or organizational reasons). Indicators can also be a sharp change of owners, management, the business model of the credit institution.
"If you rely only on information about the Bank's activities, as reflected in his statements, then, as practice shows, evaluation can be not faithful enough. Why? Because we are based on the reporting we do not see factors that affect results of its activity. And maybe his success was accidental, because the circumstances in the market? Or the Bank has a long-term strategy, and according to her in this period of high results, and not planned? Therefore, it is necessary to understand that the rating you see, what purpose is it created and on what basis. Then you will be able to correctly understand the accuracy of his assessment," advises Boris Karabanov from GK "Intalev".
success in observation and comparison.
"If the Bank delivers statements to the Central Bank, then it would seem that his authority guarantees the accuracy of the information. But, as the events of many years, the Central Bank does not understand (in the sense of not engaged in the validation and analysis of activity of banks). Maybe it's actually not so, but there is such a strong feeling. Or, perhaps, not to sow panic, the Central Bank does not advertise the appearance of problems at banks and trying their measures to prevent negative developments. And only when nothing can be done, it comes to the revocation of the license, and the fact becomes public domain. But in any case external users yesterday Bank in good standing, and now, without a license. And how to understand the rating based on these official statements, what can happen? No way. Only track trends: last year was worse than the year before, this is worse than in the past, it can be expected that this is the "call"," — concludes Karabanov.
the Portal.ru declares that one of the above signs or all of them together constitute a necessary condition for the presence of problems in any Bank. However, advises in any case to pay attention to such moments in the activities of your Bank.
Anna DUBROVSKAYA, Banki.ru
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