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In Russia talking about a new devaluation of the ruble. This contributes to a number of factors, from fleeing from our market to foreigners for the growth rates on foreign currency deposits. What to be ready for the Russians this autumn?
the Threat of terrible punishment
the Queues in exchange, almost constantly changing exchange rates on an electronic Board, a futile attempt financial officials to reassure citizens who buy dollars and euros. All of this in Russia already. And perhaps this fall we were again waiting for something like this. In any case, reasons for concern for the fate of the Russian currency abound.
As recent events have shown, the simple statements of the two us senators of intent to introduce a bill to expand sanctions was enough to collapse the ruble and to initiate a new sale of Russian assets. Analysts interpreted this as a purely political statement, not a desire to harm the Russian economy. "The real sanctions will cause turmoil not only in Russia, but also lead to serious economic consequences for the entire world. The house of cards effect and large-scale deleveraging in all markets is inevitable," he wrote in his telegram.-the Director of analytical Department of "Loco of invest" Cyril Tremasov. "We don't think sanctions against BFL will be introduced. In this history, the threat of terrible punishment," — said in comments the analyst of "Alpari" Alexander Razuvaev.
However, even this was enough to index Mosuri the evening of 24 July, turned negative, and the dollar rose above 63.5 ruble. Fortunately, the ruble has a little supported the growing of oil (the price of a barrel of Brent crude rose to 74 dollars) and selling of currency by exporters for tax payments. It is difficult to imagine a similar situation with the us currency. Even the record of the sale of Russian securities United States Treasury securities is not affected nor on the value of treasuries, nor the dollar. In may the ten-year UST were traded with a yield of 2.77 to 3.11% in July, the range of rates decreased to 2.88—2.96 per cent. The tightening of fed policy contributes to the strengthening of the dollar relative to other currencies. Part of the reason non-residents continue to reduce their positions in Russian assets. Latest Central Bank data show that the second quarter brought foreigners from Russia about $ 6 billion, reducing its stake to 28.2 per cent. By the beginning of April (prior to the introduction of new sanctions), it was 34.5 percent.
the Inflow of foreign currency in Russia could be reduced
But without effect, the next portion of sanctions deterring foreigners from investing in the ruble, our currency is not to be envied. The main factor of the weakness of the ruble remained the auctions of the Ministry of Finance, daily spending on purchase of foreign currency on the market to 15.8 billion rubles. In recognition of the financial officials, if not for the intervention, the dollar would be worth 50 rubles. And in the future, the Ministry plans to increase the currency purchase. According to the project "the Basic directions budgetary, tax and customs-tariff policy for 2019-2021 years," next year it will spend 3.42 billion rubles, or almost 25% more than in 2018. And in just three years to buy dollars will receive 8.5 trillion rubles. This is 2/3 of the total coming into the country currency. The Ministry of Finance explained that this policy will reduce "the sensitivity of exchange rate fluctuations to the dynamics of oil prices".
this means that the availability of dollars and euros for business and ordinary citizens will be reduced, and the rate will increase. In addition, there is a possibility that the inflow of foreign currency into the country may shrink, even despite consistently high oil prices. Recall that in mid-July the state Duma in the third reading released sanctioned exporters from the obligation of repatriation of foreign currency earnings. In other words, now a company that sells Russian gas, oil, metals and other resources, may not sell dollars and euros on our exchange, and leave them on their foreign accounts. Raiffeisenbank has estimated that only at the expense of Rosneft, the Russian market could lose 25 billion to 64 billion. "The abolition of requirements for the repatriation of revenues will increase in the outflow of capital and further growth of deficit of foreign exchange liquidity in the local market," — warn the analysts of the Bank. According to their estimates, this will lead to a rise in the dollar above 65 rubles.
In anticipation of a possible shortage banks have already started to stock up on foreign currency liquidity. Now to place a Deposit in dollars under 3-3,5% per annum, and analysts do not exclude further growth rates. To "cool" the market, the regulator has tightened the requirements for reserve currency liabilities, thus preventing mass transfer of depositors ' funds in dollars and euros. In addition, according to the analyst of "Alpari" Natalia Milchakova, thus the Central Bank is trying to reduce the currency risk of the banking sector. "It is possible that their side effect may be a temporary shortage of cash currency from banks in periods of high demand for currency, for example the summer holidays," she says.
According to the head of trading BKS Alexander Mulberger while it is cheaper to borrow foreign currency from retail clients. Therefore, banks, which now need to pay for external obligations, increase rates on deposits. "While talking about the shortage of dollar in the market is not necessary, but to borrow the currency in Russia became more expensive. The difference in rates is between 0.6% and 1.5%," he says. The Director of operations foreign exchange and money markets Metallinvestbank Sergey Romanchuk also said the growth of premium on foreign currency loans in Russia. He believes that, if necessary, to attract dollars and euros some credit institutions will have to mortgage securities. Another possible source of currency — the Ministry of Finance. Last week, the Department placed on Bank deposits $ 0.5 billion, as a result, the rouble has gone to growth.
We can see the dollar and 70 rubles
From this point of view, the policy of dollarisation, which again talked about gosbanki and financial officials is quite logical. Indeed, in the event of a shortage of currency in the same Bank and large companies again have to go for help to the state. For example, if the market will occur short increased demand for dollars and euros (for example, to repay foreign debts), then, considers the Director of analytical Department IK "Region" Valery Weisberg, the Ministry of Finance may suspend intervention. And in the event of a system shortage, the Central Bank may again start currency REPO. This support of the financial sector regulator of the ran in 2014, together with the requirement for exporters to support the national currency, selling foreign currency earnings on the exchange, partly stopped the devaluation. In April 2018, representatives of the Central Bank said that does not preclude the use of REPO auctions in foreign currency to stabilize the situation on the market in case of risks to financial stability.
However, this scenario does not consider neither the regulator nor the market participants. As the analyst of BKS Sergey Suverov, a lot depends on the political situation in the United States. "Although members of Congress are calling for tougher sanctions, but at the end of the year is scheduled a new meeting between Putin and trump," he recalls. And Weisberg notes that on a quarterly basis in the country comes to about 50 billion dollars through foreign trade. This, according to his calculations, enough to pay off the foreign debt, and partly to cover the outflow of funds of non-residents of the OFZ. "With stable oil prices system currency deficit is unlikely", says Suverov.
on the other hand, experts admit, the purchase of foreign currency by the Ministry of Finance and the tightening of monetary policy, the US will not let the ruble strengthen. So the dollar in the coming months will continue to float in the range of 60-65 rubles. Some experts do not exclude that if in the market there will be an acute shortage of currency, we may see the dollar to 70 roubles. This, for example, may result in an increased demand for dollars and euros from Bank customers, who tend in a crisis to change rubles are not just looking at the course. "But this is only possible in case of panic among the population. To this can cause a sharp long-lasting fluctuations, as it was at the end of 2014," says financial analyst "BKS the Prime Minister" Alexander Bakhtin. But at the moment, he calms, the preconditions for the repetition of such a scenario is not.
albert KOSHKAROV, Banki.ru
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