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Business / Finance

Don't hide your dollars in banks and corners

Banki.ru: themes of the day 05.08.2018 at 21:00

Banking and financial news on the website Banki.ru

The Continuing weakening of the ruble is another reason to think about savings in foreign currency. Where to place your dollars and euros? Banks.ru — about the most simple ways to increase your capital.

In the ruble, no one believes

the Ruble is gradually losing ground, yielding to European and American currency. It is not surprising that a recent survey of the Central Bank showed the proportion of Russians waiting for the weakening of the ruble, the spring has increased. And the number believing in a stable exchange rate, on the contrary, decreased. Quite skeptical about the prospects of the Russian currency and bankers. A sharp increase in interest rates on interbank loans in July, many analysts have tied up with the fact that banks attracted ruble-denominated loans to customers who had to pay taxes. Exporting companies prefer not to spend their petrodollars, and to take rubles. Because of this, even dropped the volume of currency trading on the stock exchange. "Sales of foreign currency by exporters could be not very significant", — noted in the review of Sberbank CIB. Analysts do not exclude that the exporters decided to hold the currency in anticipation of more favorable exchange rate.

the Catalyst for another weakening of the ruble could become anything. From the fall in oil prices to a new package of sanctions. Just recently, U.S. senators introduced in Congress a draft law imposing limitations on Russian debt. This led to a massive sale of Federal loan bonds, index bonds RGBITR since the beginning of August decreased by 2.77 points. According to analysts Citigroup, the prohibition of non-residents to buy OFZ could lead to an increase in the dollar to 73 rubles.

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But even without us sanctions, the Russian currency could weaken significantly. For example, if exporters will further reduce the sale of foreign currency proceeds at the stock exchange. The analysts of Raiffeisenbank, only at the expense of Rosneft, the Russian market could lose 25 billion to 64 billion. This will lead to an increase in deficit of foreign exchange liquidity in the local market and the growth of the dollar.

the flames traditionally adds and the Ministry of Finance. On Friday, August 3, the Agency reported that the direct purchase of foreign currency record amount 383,2 billion. Thus, in August the market will take more than $ 6 billion. Raiffeisenbank predicting the strengthening of the foreign exchange deficit and the dollar above 65 rubles. S&P is talking about a continued flight of foreign capital from Russia and predict the end of 2018, the dollar at 64 rubles. In 2019, according to the Agency, it will cost 66.8 per ruble.

the Yield on foreign currency deposits at the peak

What can you do in these conditions with the purchased currency? One of the simple and logical solution is to put $ ary and euros on Deposit. After a long stagnation in this segment of the banking market has again shown positive dynamics. According to the Bank, January interest rates on dollar deposits (for a term exceeding one year) rose to 1.96% (by 0.34%). Now you can find the contribution rate above 3% even in the state banks. However, such a generous offer is only for those who have from $ 1 million. Rate for deposits in euros this year, by contrast, fell. According to the Bank, on average, to place the European currency for a term of years under 0,39%. Best offer on the market — from 1% per annum, such rates are ready to give some small banks for those who have 50 thousand euros.

Experts do not exclude that some banks can still get slightly better rates, but global growth is not worth waiting. Profitability of foreign currency deposits is already at its peak. "A significant price rise of foreign currency deposits in the short term is not expected" — the analyst of Banks.ru Vadim Tikhonov. According to him, now at higher rates, banks take account of the potential growth rate and the corresponding the strengthening of the dollar abroad. Also, you should take into account the deterrent factor — the increase in norm of deductions in reserves on foreign currency liabilities, which the Central Bank imposed from 1 Aug. Such a straightforward way, the regulator is trying to prevent the growth of the amount of conversion of rubles into dollars.

Investment for the patient

Strategy of the trust is one of the ways to earn a higher income by investing currency in foreign stocks and bonds. Suitable for those who have 50-100 thousand dollars. However, you have to be patient: on average, investors are advised to keep money for at least 2-3 years. As told the Manager of the criminal code "Alfa Capital" Dmitry Dorofeev, last year the yield of the portfolios of the bonds in DN was at 4-6% per annum in dollars. However, the recent correction in the debt market and the rebalancing of the portfolio is now expected yield bond Manager evaluates strategies at the level of 8-10% (the horizon of one year).

the question Price — 1-1,5% of the amount of such a Commission the investor must pay UK, plus the reward for the revenue — up to 20% depending on the strategy.

To more aggressive strategies do Commission expenses may be greater, but the yield is higher. According to portfolio Manager of the criminal code "Alfa Capital" Edward Harina, the average yield strategies DU, in the portfolios which have shares of U.S. companies is in the area of 8-10%. Most of all this year, investors earned on investments in the technology sector — up to 20%. At the same time, claims managing, thanks to diversification of investments (usually in a single portfolio do not less than 10-20 shares of different companies) these strategies are more sustainable in times of market volatility. For example, the recent sale of the IT companies, according to Kharin, led only to short-term drawdown of a portfolio, its cost is quickly recovered due to the growth of Apple shares.

When selecting a Manager and strategy do the experts recommend to look at what the results show funds in the respective company. Mutual funds (mutual Funds) is a relatively good option for those who have not so much foreign exchange savings. Mutual funds that invest in foreign securities, which are often "by-products" in their portfolio can be paper exchange-traded Fund (ETF), stocks of large American or European companies, Russian issuers. In some "foreign mutual Funds" share of the latter can reach 40-50%.

However, the investment funds in foreign shares and bonds have several disadvantages. In addition to the relatively high commissions (read more here), the investor to buy shares will have to first sell the currency. By law, all settlements in the mutual Funds are maintained in rubles. Therefore, even if the Fund invested in foreign securities, ago, you again get the RUB. It's not very convenient given the unstable behavior of the Russian currency. On the other hand, selecting the right moment of entry and exit, you can still earn from price difference.

Quote there will be no Recession

a More economical option — investing in ETFs, where Commission is much smaller. "Low costs and a strict adherence to the currency index, broad diversification, low entry threshold and ease of use", lists the advantages of this tool the Executive Director of Finex Plus LLC, the Russian subsidiary of the FinEx, Vladimir Kreindel. Guess what stocks will rise and which to fall, he said, is very difficult. As an example, the financier specifies the shares of Facebook, which until the July collapse was one of the most popular securities among investors, over 90% of analysts recommended to buy them. In addition to the funds of the company FinEx, the stocks of which are traded on the Moscow exchange, the owner of the brokerage account or IIS is available some more funds. To invest in foreign mutual funds or ETFs, you will need the status of a qualified investor or have to open a foreign Bank account. "This means that every year you have to report on incoming-outgoing transaction tax, plus to submit a Declaration. In order to invest 50-100 thousand dollars, it is inexpedient", — said General Director of "Ehmkvarta. Personal Advisor" Natalia Smirnova.

whether to buy funds that invest in US stocks? Indeed, some analysts believe that the stock market rally may have already exhausted itself. "Sale has just begun, and this correction will be largest after the February," — said strategist at Morgan Stanley in the stock market Mike Wilson.

the Russian experts Have a different view. According to senior analyst IK "freedom Finance" Vadim Merkulov, until the middle of 2019, investors can rest assured that there will be no recession. "The US economy is now in excellent condition. Inflation only starts to accelerate GDP growth to over 4%, a record low unemployment and so on — all this testifies to the healthy state of the economy. I believe that analysts from Morgan Stanley hurried to the forecast," he says. According to Crandle, do not be afraid of a particular market just because one of the sectors showed a correction after rapid growth.

Smirnov recommends to pay attention to the shares of Facebook, Twitter, which lost more than 20% of its value. Also, she believes, can be an interesting ETF to China because of its trade war with the United States. For more conservative investors, the expert advice bonds of reliable issuers (on the Moscow stock exchange can be found Eurobonds with an entry threshold of 1 thousand dollars), as well as the related ETF. "Exchange-traded funds on the American bonds due to the rate increase I wouldn't recommend it. And in General debt markets of developed countries, somewhat overheated," — said Smirnov. At the same time, according to her, investments in ETFs focused on emerging markets, especially China, Indonesia, Turkey, is quite risky.

Investment in notes

structured note — a more complex instrument than a mutual Fund or ETF, but it also allows you to earn by investing a relatively small amount. For example, the nominal currency exchange notes issued by BCS, is 1 250 USD. The yields depend on different events, including can be impacted by the change in the price of the underlying assets, e.g. shares of selected companies.

depending on what the purchaser acquires the notes, he having different risks. For example, in the case of the note, which is linked to credit events of large Russian companies (note No. 19 of the company "BKS"), the buyer notes may not receive a coupon payment (5.5% per annum) in the event that if one of the issuers cease to service its debt. In this situation, says investment strategist "BKS the Prime Minister" Alexander Bakhtin, the investor will receive the value of the underlying asset, which occurred credit event. Of course, at that price, which by the time the rest of the market.

generally, for purposes of issue the notes are special SPV-company, and the Bank or broker is not legally liable for the obligations. This format creates additional risk for maintenance of the notes by the company of the Issuer. Therefore, experts recommend, if you decide to purchase the structured note, you should choose the big banks and brokerage companies.

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Like risks and those who decided to buy notes that are tied to stock prices. In the BCS said that under the terms of one of the products that is trading on the market (note № 21), the company twice a year pays the investors a coupon rate of 10% per annum in dollars. However, if the cutoff value of the shares at least one of the companies in the portfolio will fall below 35% of the purchase price, the payment does not occur. "In this case, the coupon is stored. In the next observation date, provided that all securities above 65% of their original value, paid for a coupon period and not previously paid coupons", says Bakhtin. Exchange memo No. 21 tied to the stock prices of foreign and Russian companies (Albemarle, Delta Airlines, gateway, Yandex, Sberbank).

If at the time of redemption structured notes the price of any of the shares will fall by more than 35%, then the total work for the majority of these products are the rule instead of the invested amount, the holder will receive the value of the "sagging" of the shares. To avoid all this is possible, if you sell note on the stock exchange without waiting for repayment. However, in this case, you will have to sacrifice income, abandoning the next coupon payment. Of course, this rule works only for the exchange of structured notes. To buy them, you will have to open a brokerage account and pay a Commission to the broker and the Depositary for the transaction (tenths of a percent). But if we are talking about OTC structured product (such notes, for example, offer a Bank, BCS), then the early termination of the contract the investor may lose part of your investment. Depending on the market situation, the company or the Bank will quantify the cost of the paper and pay to its owner the amount due.

albert KOSHKAROV, Banki.ru