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Business / Finance

Is there life after dollar

Banki.ru: themes of the day 19.08.2018 at 21:00

Banking and financial news on the website Banki.ru

Russian authorities constantly told about the instability of the dollar and the dream to stop using it in the calculations. However, while there is no other currency that can compete with the us.

are you Ready to open the Deposit Altino? And how many bitcoins you buy to travel on vacation? And at what rate should change rubles for "Eurasia"? All of these questions, we may need to ask yourself in the near future. An increasing number of countries are thinking about creating their own currencies for multinational transactions and refusal of calculations in dollars.

Not in gold happiness

the Head of VTB Andrey Kostin, the President proposed a plan of "absolute de-dollarization", and the first Vice-Premier, Finance Minister Anton Siluanov, who discovered the risks of payments in dollars, not lone visionaries. Similar statements can be found among the financiers and politicians of other countries. For example, the same George Soros ten years ago was offered the role of a global currency SDR (special drawing rights) that the IMF uses in its calculations. Another alternative — warrants (a warrant to purchase an asset at a fixed price), according to the dynamics of the world GDP, or GDP-bonds.

In 2009, economists at the United Nations openly stated that the current monetary system is inefficient, slows the global economy and creates financial crises. They proposed the creation of a new international currency linked to gold. In other words, to return to the Bretton woods system, which operated from 1957. By the way, by the time the US gold reserves exceeded 20 thousand tonnes, which accounted for about 70% of the world reserves! Yet with a light hand of the French President Charles de Gaulle and other countries accumulated dollars, not to require them to sell gold. In August 1971 Richard Nixon announced the abolition of the direct relationship between gold and the dollar.

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Despite the decline in gold reserves, the U.S. now remains the largest holder: theirs is 8.1 thousand tons of gold. That's four times more than in Russia or China, and 14 times more than the Indian Central Bank. However, the strength of the dollar is not in this: by and large, its rate depends on the demand of other countries, and accordingly, the state of the American economy and inflow of investments into the country. Given the fact that the U.S. GDP growth last year was 2.5%, and this year is forecast to pick up to 3.1% (in II quarter us GDP showed a 4%), not surprisingly, the dollar recently strengthened against other currencies.

on the other hand, during this growth, the States have to pay increased debt. Now he is more than 21.3 trillion. This astronomical number continues to grow, and outpacing economic growth. "Problems in the growth of public expenditure, which are covered by new borrowing. Plus also make their contribution and interest expenses on debt service", — said the chief economist of the Eurasian development Bank Yaroslav Lissovolik. Now the amount of US debt already equal to the annual GDP of the country, and many experts expect that this ratio will increase in favor of debt.

This lovely multi-currency world

the Build-up of US debt is just one of the factors that can affect the stability of the American currency. Much more other countries are concerned about the dependence of their own currencies (and in the whole economy) from the political decisions of Washington. "The U.S. is using the privileged position of its currency for their own national enrichment and direct economic pressure on various States. This financial system gives rise to risks and grievances from all participants," says investment strategist "BKS the Prime Minister" Alexander Bakhtin.

As an example — the recent collapse of the Turkish Lira, provoked by the imposition of sanctions against government officials and export duties on raw materials. The Minister of Finance of Turkey Berat Albayrak (son-in-law of President Erdogan) has openly declared that all this "clear and coordinated attack, conducted by the largest player in the financial system." Thus the Turkish authorities take the aggravation of relations with the United States in particular, refusing to release from a Turkish prison, American pastor Andrew Brunson. Another example is the bill of American congressmen with a proposal to "disconnect" from the dollar Russian state-owned banks, which will cause damage not only our financial system but the economy as a whole. In particular, exporters who carried out the calculations using the same VTB or Sberbank. According to the Agency TASS, the two companies, ALROSA and Norilsk Nickel, has begun testing payments with buyers in China and India.

it is not Surprising that the world is becoming more and more projects to create alternative means of international payments. Get rid of the "dollar-based" many countries are using regional currencies.

the ECU (ECU — European Currency Unit) since the late 70-ies of the last century was used as a means of cashless payments between European countries, and its rate was calculated as the aggregate of currencies of all member States. The ECU could use as a reserve currency, and also for granting loans. In 1999, the change of this monetary unit, the Euro came.

AKU — accounting currency based on a single currency basket of the countries of Asia (AMU). The project was launched in 2006, it was attended by 16 countries, including India, China and Japan. The exchange rate of this currency calculated by the Asian development Bank. In the future, on the basis of AKU may receive the Asian equivalent of the Euro.

the Amero is a common currency which would combine the financial system of the United States, Canada and Mexico. It was assumed that this currency will be used for calculations between the countries — participants of the North American monetary Union. A favorite topic of conspiracy theorists: US will replace the dollar to the Amero, and in this way solve the problem with public debt. There are even date — 2020.

Altyn — the future currency of the Eurasian economic Union. Another of its name — "Evraz". According to the plans, it needs to simplify payments between countries, reducing transaction costs, and to get rid of the dollar peg in the calculation of prices for goods. Decisions about who will be its Issuer, how will be calculated the exchange rate to other currencies is still there. The Minister of economic development of Russia Maxim Oreshkin said that the single currency of the EEU can be entered no earlier than 2025.

African single African currency, the establishment of which discuss beginning of the century. The goal is not only to simplify the calculations interethnic but also "to support" the poorest state, using a single monetary policy on the continent. It is expected that this will create an African Central Bank. However, recently the head of the Central Bank of Egypt Tarek Amer said that the combined Bank and currency in Africa appears only to the year 2043.

Why the creation of a single currency lasts for decades? It has both political and economic reasons. For example, according to a leading analyst "Discovery Broker" Andrei Kochetkov, the introduction of a single currency presupposes respect for the participants of the unified budget parameters such as deficit and debt. "For the Euro has been a big challenge to pass the debt crises of Greece, and then in peripheral Europe. A single emission center of the Eurozone took major responsibility for the salvation of softening the monetary policy and adopting a quantitative program," he says.

According to the famous economist, head of division of international capital markets IMEMO Yakov Mirkin to create a single currency, countries must abandon the sovereign rights issue, from an independent monetary and currency policy of the Central Bank. "This is a very difficult decision," he said.

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From a political point of view, the single currency is the truncation of sovereignty. This implies political integration of the member countries. "Not only a different speed of economic development and the weight of the economies in the future monetary Union determine the rate of introduction of the single currency, but the degree of similarity of domestic and foreign policy will inevitably affect the prospects for such enterprises," — said Kochetkov.

the Money for Millennials

Another alternative to the dollar — currency. Their number is already approaching 2 million, market capitalization — 207,9 billion. The virtual money has a lot of advantages over traditional Fiat. The main thing — a decentralized treatment system: it is impossible in any way to control transaction on or off payments. To pay cryptoengine, need Internet, and not the Central Bank. Everything else is almost zero transaction costs, anonymity, and the inability to forge cryptocurrency.

In some countries (UK, Switzerland, Estonia, UAE, some States in the United States) have now for the tokens you can buy a property. Cryptocurrency is also possible to pay — for example, coffee, books, and even action. "It is important that the Millennials cryptocurrency is more credible than the older generation.

For them, digital assets have become the norm: most people often use non-cash payments and electronic wallets" — says the founder of the payment system PlasmaPay Ilya Maksimenka.

But in spite of all the advantages of cryptocurrency and the growing popularity of payments, the representatives of the industry seriously consider the virtual currency as a real threat to the existing "dollarization" financial system. At least in the near future. The representative of kleptomanka Wirex novel Zabuga sure that in the medium term, the use of crypto-currencies for international payments are excluded. "We have the example of Latin American Petro initiated by the Venezuelan authorities, and great doubts about his liquidity. We have more than the usual crypto — currencies- bitcoin, ether, ripple and others whose volatility simply does not suggest their use as means of payment is not something that at the international level, but even in the country at the b2b level," he says.

Cryptocurrencies are now more used as means of payment and as an investment tool. To the same bitcoin or Ethereum steel at par with the dollar and the Euro, you need at least two things. The first unified and coherent policy regulators. In fact right now not all countries even allowed their use. In Russia, for example, the status of transactions with cryptocurrencies in General, not regulated. Although mine and invest in bitcoins the citizens, no one stops, however, the Russian financial authorities no desire to give them legal status. "The opinion of the Bank of Russia is not to legalize the use of cryptocurrency as legal tender. We are opposed to private money, in whatever form they may be either material or virtual. Cryptocurrency is a private digital money," — said the head of the Central Bank Elvira Nabiullina in October last year, at the Sochi forum of innovative technologies.

the Second, what prevents the cryptocurrency to become an international means of payment, specifies Ilya Maksimenka is the absence of payment infrastructure and trust in him. "Blackany on the basis of which there are cryptocurrencies that are still technically weak to speak about the global displacement of the Fiat digital currency. However, in the future five years the stock market can be enough to develop from a technical point of view, and to be widely adopted as a means of payment, making low-cost alternative to the dollar and the Euro," — he said.

what about the ruble?

the world already has a second reserve currency, said Yakov Mirkin. In Euro denominated 20-25% of all financial assets. Therefore, as suggested by many experts, the Euro most likely to replace the dollar. For example, to circumvent U.S. sanctions. "If the Russian Federation will be subject to lock dollar payments from the United States, it is not excluded payments in euros, for example, for the supply of gas," — says the analyst of "freedom Finance" Valery Bezuglov.

However, the Euro is significantly inferior to the dollar in terms of reliability. The debt crisis in Greece, the UK out of the EU, the attempts to separate Catalonia from Spain, the Scottish referendum on independence (albeit unsuccessful) — all these events do not add stability to the European currency. Plus, in some countries once again talking about the return to a national currency. From this point of view more promising, many experts believe the yuan. According to the world Bank, the share of China in the world economy already stands at about 15%. And recent years, the growth rate of GDP exceeds 6%.

"China has launched trading in futures on crude calculations for delivery solely in the yuan," says the analyst of "Alpari" Natalia Milchakova. If this goes on, then after 10-15 years, China can become a leader, displacing from this position of the United States, whose contribution to global GDP is now estimated at approximately 25%. This will lead to credibility and liquidity of the yuan: it is not enough for the Chinese currency to become the world.

But the prospects of the ruble as an international currency experts estimate until more than modest. For this the Russian economy is too weak, and our national currency is too dependent on policy, oil prices, investor behavior, fluctuations of other currencies. And a dozen other reasons. So while it is unlikely that someone from partner countries willing to accept the ruble as a reliable means of payment and capital preservation. "No matter how much he talked about our desire to switch to the ruble, today it is only possible in a limited format," says Alexander Bakhtin. Milchakova does not exclude that the part of payments in rubles can be used in the framework of the EAEU, but it can prevent currency risks. Unlike the dollar, which is considered the most stable currency in the world is immune from dramatic collapse of the Russian ruble is clearly not can boast such stability.

albert KOSHKAROV, Banki.ru