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Foreigners sell Russian securities, and the Finance Ministry of Russia for the third time may not borrow money under the bond. Could it have an impact on the ruble and the cost of Bank loans?
Follow the money on who say
Despite the growing popularity of investing in bonds, this topic remains far from the majority of Russians. Most much clearer, for example, the rate of the Central Bank: if the regulator will increase, Bank deposits will become profitable. Increased the dollar? That means time for shopping. Otherwise, then in the same refrigerator or you'll have to give more.
But how successful is in debt to the state or how to behave in the interest rates on the bonds, at first glance, has nothing to do with our everyday life. It would seem, what relation to the prices in the shops have weekly auctions of the Ministry of Finance? What is BFL?
And in fact no direct impact. But there is indirect: first, through the course of the Russian currency (a rise in rates is accompanied by the weakening of the ruble), and secondly, through the cost of borrowing for banks and companies producing goods and services. Rate on the OFZ is a kind of a reference point (benchmark) for all other borrowers. And if the cost of borrowing for the government grows, the rest of economic agents also have to take more.
for Example, banks are active borrowers in the market of public debt. According to analysts, BK "Region" Alexander Ermaka, now in circulation are Bank bonds for the total amount of 2.65 trillion. "And the cost of resources for the Bank determines in turn the cost of credit for borrowers, including, for example, consumer and mortgage loans for the population," he explains.
it was about this told the head of the Ministry Maxim Oreshkin, linking growth rates in the Russian economy with the increase in the yield of Federal bonds. "Rates have begun to rise, here from the point of view of bets on the economy is much stronger affected by what is happening at the same rates OFZ," said he. For April — July, non-residents withdrew from the Russian market debt of about 350 billion rubles, in August this process was continued.
the Rate of return on the sovereign bond market recent months hit records. Since the introduction of sanctions in April, the cost of borrowing for the Ministry of Finance grew by nearly 2 percentage points. The peak was observed in early September: the rate of return of stock index, government bonds RGBITR exceeded 9%. At this level, OFZs traded a couple of years ago, oil cost $ 46-47. Now the main threat to our bond market sanctions. This week in the banking Committee of the U.S. Senate are discussing a ban on the purchase of Russian bonds. This is referred to in reports submitted by three U.S. senators.
Should we be afraid of new sanctions
Obviously, any sanctions against Russia automatically means loss for the economy. In the case of their introduction, the share of foreign-owned OFZ (27%, according to Mosberg) will be reduced even more. Sale of bonds will hit the ruble, with all the consequences. The spread of American sanctions on Russian sovereign debt will cause the country a recession in 2019, which resulted in the GDP will shrink by 1.1% and the dollar strengthened to 81.5 rubles, according to "Renaissance Capital".
the MAYOR even wrote on the case of sanctions the next forecast. Commenting on it, Maxim Oreshkin said that if there are no problems with bonds, the sanctions would have "drastic effects on the economy."
Alas, the problem just is. The Ministry of Finance for the third time in a month had to cancel auctions. Some market participants support such a decision. "The reduction in the supply of OFZ supported the market growth OFZ "pulled" for a strengthening of the ruble," — said the analyst "Aton" Yakov Yakovlev. According to the head of the Department of market analysis "Opening Broker" Konstantin Bushuev, the authorities do not want to "push" the market and make it clear to participants that are not willing to borrow money at high rates. "The Ministry of Finance will return to the market when you see the volatility decrease and demand increase," — said the expert.
Now the situation on the debt market is a little "ustakanilos": - yield bonds fell to 8-8,8%. Index of government bonds increasing from the beginning of the week. However, traders said large buyers in the market. "Non-residents almost left the market, reducing their share of ownership of OFZ bonds from 35% to approximately 10%, which, in fact, became the reason for such a strong drawdown of the bond market", — says head of Department on work with wealthy clients, "Zerich capital Management" Andrei Khokhrin. Their place is now occupied by pension funds and banks, received from a piggy Bank, the Central Bank billions of dollars in aid. Only on the reorganization of the NPF affiliated with the Bank "FC Opening", the regulator has spent about 140 billion rubles. Not without the banks: for example, the Sberbank has increased the OFZ portfolio of more than 200 billion rubles. And in early September, the Central Bank issued to banks against collateral of securities 405 billion worth of loans, estimated analyst of Bank "GLOBEKS" Victor Veselov. The money also could go to the debt market.
overall, However, the situation is not yet saved. The Ministry of Finance for the second consecutive quarter fails to meet the terms of borrowing. According to calculations Sberbank CIB in January — August the government managed to take only 371 billion (net lending), although it was initially planned to 1.04 trillion rubles. Does this mean that the state may not have enough money and will have to re-print the national welfare Fund? Not at all. "With the current ruble cost of a barrel of budget gets about half a trillion rubles of above-plan revenues in the quarter more than the planned volumes of the quarterly of placing of the state securities" — the analyst of UK "URALSIB" Alexander Golovtsov. According to estimates analyst BKS Sergey suverova if the plan for the placement of OFZ were to fail, the price of oil in the area of 5.3 thousand rubles will provide a budget surplus at the level of 1-1,5%.
will there be Enough money from the state
But if budget will be good in any case, does it mean that citizens, too, will not notice the difference? From the point of view of inflation and the cost of credit is likely. Unless, of course, the price of government bonds will again start to fall. In this case, to take the money in debt, the Bank will become more expensive.
However, even with the current situation many experts expect growth of interest rates. "Lending rates react to the bond, but nonlinear and with the big delay. They have started to change recently and has increased by less than one percentage point," said Golovtsov. While banks are in no hurry to raise rates, especially given the moderate demand for loan funds from the companies. To speed up the cost of loans, according to experts, could increase in the key rate of the Central Bank, but the probability of this is low. "So, loans for Russians are likely to be even more expensive, but only a little, about half a percent per month. And the resumption of growth of the bond market and this increase can be discontinued in October," concludes Golovtsov.
the Portfolio Manager of the criminal code "Alfa Capital" Dmitry Dorofeyev also expects growth in Bank interest rates. "Banks in determining interest rates on loans consider OFZs as the risk-free benchmark, which are applied as required by the Bank of premiums for credit risk of the borrower, for a period, and so on, and forms the final rate on the loan," he explains.
on the other hand, if the program of state borrowings will be disrupted, it also has an impact on the economic policy of the state. The sanctions are there or not, but to enforce the may decree of the President officials have. Which is as much as 8 trillion rubles. To take their power plan by increasing taxes, reforms pension age, excise, etc.
a role for the BFL next year, the authorities intend to borrow 1.5 trillion rubles, and in 2020 — 1.8 trillion. The Ministry of Finance argues that to abandon those plans are still going, but according to Deputy Minister Vladimir Kolycheva, act the Agency will "flexibly", including "cancelling and reducing the volume of borrowings in this particular moment."
the Analyst of "Finam" Alexey Korenev recalled that earlier, officials claimed that can easily get along without borrowing in the debt market at least a year. However, recent statements by Maxim Oreshkin, that the government may have to seek alternative sources of money borrowed on the foreign market, according to Koreneva, suggests that the Ministry of Finance is still unable to rely on internal resources for such a long time horizon.
if necessary, the authorities will have to look for ways to withdraw a portion of the proceeds from the Russians. For example, increasing production of the "people" OFZ.
While this is a drop in the ocean: in a year and a half, the state has attracted a population of about 52 billion rubles, while the volume of attraction in the market the normal OFZ during the same period was of the order of 2.06 trillion. To take more, according to Ermak, BK "Region", the government will have to put a lot of effort. At a minimum, have to increase the attractiveness of bonds, changing the structure, the conditions of their placement and circulation.
albert KOSHKAROV, Banki.ru
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