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Business / Finance

Weekly Analytics Fundamental analysis of the Forex market OPEC+ wants to cut oil production

FreshForex news RSS 12.11.2018 at 05:09

News Forex from FreshForex

The forecast for the week 12-16 November:

#SP500:

Last week, the U.S. stock market ended the growth of quotations, and I expect continuation of the bullish market to a new five-day week. The corporate reporting season has not yet ended, and the Corporation will continue to please investors with positive financial results. In the coming week their reports will publish Home Depot, Cisco, Walmart, NVIDIA, Applied Materials. In the last month in the media can often come across articles that started the global crisis, markets fall and now need to sell the stock. Whether so it actually? Try to understand on one simple example. The us stock market is highly dependent on the yield of Treasury bonds. Stock always includes a phase of crisis, when the yield on 10-lentic government bonds higher stock returns. Now on the American market yield is 3.9%, while bond yields are at the level of 3.22%. Looks like either the stock market needs to grow strongly (more than 20% from current levels), or must greatly increase the yield of the bonds. In fact we get a smooth rise in both indicators. In my opinion, there is no crisis, moreover, we expect strong growth, because soon will start the Christmas rally.

Trade recommendation: Buy take profit 2789/2766 and 2840.

#BRENT:

Black gold fell by 20% from the October high and the market is overdue a correction. The first reason for the correction is the continuation of the bullish trend on the us stock market. The S&P500; index; and Brent have a strong direct correlation, because both tools are among “risky assets”. Investment funds and large investors traditionally buy either “risky assets”, or “safe assets”. To “safe assets” include the Japanese yen, the Swiss franc and gold. All these assets are now cheaper – they are not observed capital inflows. Hence, the expected inflow of capital into “risk assets”. The second reason for the growth is the conversations within the coalition OPEC+ about the need to reduce oil production, because in the last month in the countries of AUXERRE increased reserves of hydrocarbons. The OPEC strategy, which was developed in November 2016, aims to reduce inventory and now the inventory increases. So far this is just talk, but such rumors can also support quotes, because investors always focus on the rumors.

Trade recommendation: Buy of 71.00/69,50 and take profit 74,37.

#VTB:

the corporate reporting Season now takes place not only in the US but in Russia, where the second largest Bank was pleased with the market strong financial results for the third quarter. The Bank's net profit increased by 136,8%, to 41,2 billion rubles return on equity increased from 5% to 11.2%, as investors like companies that increase the profitability of the business. All banks have traditionally evaluated relative prices to capital and according to this criterion, VTB is cheaper than many Russian banks. For example, Sberbank is 1.1 capital and VTB only 0.4 capital.

Trade recommendation: Buy 0,0375/0,0368 and take profit 0,0385.

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