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Currency pair EUR/USD during yesterday's trading day showed relatively low volatility 53 points, resulting in a clear deceleration in the range around 1.1400. From the point of view of technical analysis had a slowdown after the rally environment, where the quote still reached a value of around 1.1400, as mentioned in previous reviews. Information and background had another comment about Brekzita, this time from Theresa may. She stated that if the Parliament will vote against the agreement, then that option will be gone and the UK will leave the EU without an agreement. Also, she was asked about free trade, which in the current version of the agreement no, she replied that the negotiations are still underway. If we look at the pair Pound/ Dollar, we can see that after such review, the pound almost immediately collapsed, but the Euro still remained in their limits, so why? Experts believe that the current version of the agreement is simply beneficial to Europe and it has already been approved by the EU. At the same time, support for the Euro has not stood up the best statistics from the USA where the number of initial applications for unemployment benefits increased from 224K to 234K at the forecast 221K.
Today the focus was on inflation data in Europe, where there is a decrease from 2.2% to 2.0% at the forecast of 2.1%. At the same time, the unemployment rate for October remained at 8.1%, although it predicted a slight decrease to 8.0%.
the Upcoming trading week in the economic calendar is extremely busy it, the most interesting events displayed below. At the same time, not remove the attention of a fuss with the divorce agreement, where possible new statements or rumors.
EU 12:00 GMT - the Index of business activity in the manufacturing sector (PMI) (Nov.): Pred. 51,5 --- > Forecast of 51.5
USA 18:00 GMT - the Index of business activity in the manufacturing sector (PMI) from ISM (Nov.) Pred. 57,7 --- > Forecast 58,0
the producer price Index (PPI) (yoy) (Oct.) : Pred. The 4.5% --- > Forecast of 4.5%
EU 12:00 GMT - the Composite purchasing managers ' index (PMI) from Markit (Nov.) : Pred. 52,4--- > Forecast of 52.4
USA 16:15 GMT - employment Change in non-farm payrolls from ADP (Nov.): Pred. 227K--- > Forecast 189K
USA 16:15 GMT - the Level of productivity in non-farm payrolls (QoQ) (3Q): Pred. A 2.2%--- > Forecast of 2.3%
, USA 17:45 GMT - PMI (PMI) in the services sector (Nov.): Pred. 54,4--- > Forecast 54,4
USA 18:00 GMT - PMI (PMI) in the services sector (Nov.): Pred. A 60.3 --- > Forecast from 59.9
USA 18:15msk - Speech of the fed Chairman, Mr. Powell
USA 16:30 GMT - exports: Pred. 212,57
USA 16:30 GMT - the Volume of imports Before. 266,58
EU 13:00 GMT - GDP (yoy) (3Q): Pred. The 1.7% --- > Forecast of 1.7%
USA 16:30 GMT - employment Change in non-farm payrolls (Nov.): Pred. 250K --- > Forecast 200K
USA 16:30 GMT - unemployment rate (Nov.): Pred. The 3.7% --- > Forecast of 3.7%
by Analyzing the current trading schedule, we see that after recent stagnation, the quote has managed to increase from values around 1.1400 to move into a phase of recovery, in this regard, assistance is also coming from not the rainbow of European statistics. Likely to assume that if price manages to fix below than 1,1345, the downside movement will increase, directing us to the level 1,1300, what is the majority of traders.
On the basis of available data it is possible to expand the number of variations, let's look at them:
- buy Position is considered only in the case of fixing prices higher than around 1.1400, the primary term 1,1440. Further analyze the behavior of quotations and price fixing, so as a further point 1,1470 – at 1.1500.
- Positions are considered in the case of fixing prices lower than 1,1345, with the prospect of stroke 1,1320-1,1300.
Analyzing different sector timeframe (TF), we see that in the short term, the interest was changed to descending in the background of the current recovery quotes. Intraday perspective keeps rising indices on the background of the recent momentum. Medium term and remains in the descending zone.
the Volatility / volatility Measurement: Month; Quarter; Year
the Measurement of volatility reflects the average daily oscillation, with the payment for Month / Quarter / Year.
(30 November was tailored to the time of article publication)
the volatility of the current time is 68 points. Likely to assume that in case of recovery the downward stroke of the volatility may grow.
the Key levels
the resistance Area: 1,1440; 1,1550**(1,1510/1,1550); 1,1650*; 1,1720**; 1,1850**; 1,2100
the support Zone: 1,1300**; 1,1214**; 1,1120; 1,1000.
** Band level
the Material has been provided by InstaForex company - www.instaforex.com
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