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Gazeta.Ru From gasoline to wine: what will rise in 2019 monitoring of the banking press 19.12.2018 at 10:30

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The Russians should prepare for the worst. Prices will rise in the next year: for example, 0.9% on wine products, 4.6% — for petrol. The main reasons for the increase in VAT and increase in excise duties. A special "surprise" for our citizens are prepared for the employers, a quarter of whom intend to reduce staff in 2019.

In 2019, a number of goods and products will rise.

So, it is expected that the price of gasoline and tobacco products can grow by 4.6%, the cost of automobiles — 0.2%, wine production — by 0.9%.

this is stated in the report of the Bank of Russia on monetary policy.

the Main causes of rising food — rising prices of petrol, the rise in VAT and increase in excise duties and the requirements of the WTO (world trade organization).

In 2019, the most significant growth of excise duties is expected to gasoline and diesel fuel, but it is not fully transferred to the prices of those fuels, said the Central Bank.

In accordance with the agreements with the government to stabilize the situation in the fuel market of the largest oil companies have pledged to maintain retail fuel prices until the end of 2018 at the level of may.

"From January 1 through February 1, 2019, the growth rate of the retail prices of petroleum products should be no higher than 1.7%, in February-March to meet the projected average annual inflation for 2019. In General, for 2019 motor fuel on average will rise by no more than 4.6 percent," writes the regulator.

the Rates of excise duties on alcohol will not change, however, the price growth will be observed due to the cancellation of the preferential excise duties on Russian wine and champagne from a protected geographical indication, says the regulator. However, their cancellation due to the requirement of the WTO to establish equal conditions for domestic and foreign manufacturers.

"Given the low weight of wine and champagne in the consumer price index, the contribution of the abolition of the concessional rate of excise taxes will be negligible (less than 0.01 p. p.)" — soothes the Central Bank.

In General, the total contribution of the increase in excise duties in the annual inflation rate can be about 0.3 to 0.4 percentage points, said the regulator.

as for the VAT increase next year at 2% to 20% per annum, according to the Bank of Russia, "there remains uncertainty about how to react to the prices of the VAT increase".

As noted, the Bank of Russia in the release devoted to solving the key rate to 7.75% on Friday, 14 December, most of the inflation that characterizes the most stable processes of price trends, show growth.

So, under the effect of the VAT increase happened in 2018, the weakening of the ruble annual inflation to temporarily accelerate, reaching a maximum in the first half of 2019, and will be 5-5,5% by the end of 2019.

"raising the key rate will prevent a steady consolidation of inflation at a level substantially exceeding the target of the Bank of Russia", — said the Central Bank.

the Bank of Russia expects that inflation will return to 4% in the first half of 2020, when the effects of the incident of the weakening of the ruble and the increase in VAT will be exhausted.

in the current report on monetary policy the Bank of Russia believes that "the contribution of the VAT increase in inflation will be about 1 percentage point. But the interval of possible evaluations of this contribution is broad — from 0.6 to 1.5 percentage points".

the price Increase next year will be a heavy blow to the Russians, who were forced to constantly save.

Russians spend on products approximately 31.2% of their income, said a recent study by RIA "Novosti". The Agency has analyzed the costs of residents 40 European countries, Russia, Kazakhstan and Turkey. We used data of national statistical services and the International monetary Fund (IMF).

Russia ranked 31st place. In this case, the neighbors of our country on the list was Montenegro (29,7%) and Lithuania (31.5 percent).

For comparison, the inhabitants of Luxembourg expenditure on food makes up only 8.7%. Little spend on food, the British (10%), Dutch (10.6 per cent), the Irish, the Finns, the Norwegians and the Swiss (less than 12%).

In a tight economy lives every five, mentioned in the November monitoring of the Institute for social analysis and forecasting, Russian presidential Academy of national economy and public administration under the President (Ranepa).

At the same time, according to recent surveys of recruiters, many Russians in the near future should not expect salary increases, and reductions.

Every fourth employer in Russia may reduce staff in 2019. This shows a study conducted by the portal ("Gazeti.Ru"). Confirmed plans to cut some staff 23% of the professionals employers.

the probability reductions are most pronounced in the areas of "media and marketing" and "food". Least of all the companies providing services for business.