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This year could end up zero or even negative growth in real incomes of the population, despite the increase in wages. Next year the situation may be even worse, warn experts HSE: in real terms, wage growth will be 1.5%, which is not enough to increase real incomes. Government officials this situation is not like Finance Minister Anton Siluanov sure that's just wrong, Rosstat said.
the Russians should not rely on the growth of real disposable incomes (incomes less obligatory payments and adjusted for inflation). To such a disappointing conclusion have come experts of the Institute "development Center" Higher school of Economics.
According to the Institute, the growth rate of wages in 2019 will amount to 1.5% in real terms. This may not be enough to increase incomes of the population, experts stress.
Your forecast they are based on the dynamics of this year. In fact, for 11 months of 2018, the real disposable income of Russians, according to Rosstat, fell 0.1% in annual terms, although in the first half they grew by 1.6%.
So weak dynamics observed against the background of increasing salaries. In real terms (adjusted for inflation) for 11 months, they increased by 7.4%. For some categories of citizens mentioned decrees of the President of the Russian Federation, for the first three quarters, wages increased by 27.4%. The number of such employees decreased by 5.1%, noted in the "Comments on state and business" development Centre.
the High growth was typical for the wages in health and social services, education, activities in the field of culture, sport, leisure and entertainment, construction, activities in the field of information and communication.
Experts explain that one salary for income growth is not enough, since revenues from other sources do not grow or decrease.
So, if to take into account the hidden labor, the actual growth rate of real wages for 9 months of 2018 did not exceed 3,6%, estimated by experts. Concurrently, social payments increased in real terms by only 0.3%, and incomes from entrepreneurial activity and property has declined by 1% and 9.8% respectively.
the Real amount of the pension for the first 10 months of 2018 was below its level during the same period 2017 to 2.7%.
at the same time in October, as shown by the data grow faster spending. Including due to the fact that citizens take personal loans. Retail trade turnover and volume of paid services to the population for the first 10 months grew by 2.6% and 2.7%, the amount of savings of the population decreased, and the amount of the credit load of ROS.
Thus, in the course of this year, even very high growth of wages could not prevent the fall in the real disposable incomes of the population, conclude the experts of the HSE.
that next year's income growth will be lower than the previous one, they say, and Federal officials. Will also add load in the form of increased VAT from 18% to 20%, will have an impact and a possible increase in gasoline prices.
"the wage growth Rate in the following year we will have experienced a 6.1% growth in nominal wages is planned in 2019, 2020 and 5.4% and in 2021 it is expected to 6.6%," — said Deputy Minister of labor and social protection of the Russian Federation Lyubov eltcova at the meeting of the General Council of the Federation of independent trade unions of Russia.
meanwhile, the population of any statistical figures of long ago are not credible. In particular, this issue was raised during the annual press conference of Russian President Vladimir Putin.
"How do you think these figures are the costs of citizens, then it is added to savings (banks and cash). Hence, deducted all the taxes that a citizen pays, personal income tax or property tax, if any. And is inflation adjusted," explained the President.
In General, according to Putin, a large number of indicators suggests that the population's growing purchasing power. At the same time, Putin believes that to improve this system is a must.
Later, the Minister of Finance Anton Siluanov said that bad, Rosstat calculates the index of the real income of citizens.
"As for the calculation of real incomes of the population that believes Rosstat, very large claims, it is necessary to change," he said.
the head of the Ministry Maxim Oreshkin said in response that the normal methods, but there are questions as to how Rosstat collects data.
the Critical attitude of the officials in relation to Rosstat can understand. President Vladimir Putin has set a target to reduce by half the poverty level. Make these with the current statistics is almost impossible.
"the Government needs to somehow "close" unpleasant and extremely unpopular among the people of innovations concerning pension reform and no tax increases. To change something radically it is unlikely that someone will risk, and adjust the numbers and report on the implementation — just what you need", commented earlier "Gazete.Ru" analyst "Finam" Alexey Korenev.
Recently, Prime Minister Dmitry Medvedev dismissed the former head of Rosstat Alexander Surinov and appointed instead an employee of the Ministry of economic development Pavel Malkov.
"it's hard to Believe that with the arrival of the official from the Ministry of economy Rosstat would be more honest, more precise, more efficient. First, a new Chapter, perhaps a brilliant man, but he's not a statistician. Second, the subordination of Rosstat, the Ministry of economy kills the independence of the accounting Department," says Igor Nikolaev, Director of the Institute for strategic analysis of the company "Financial and accounting consultants".
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