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The Outgoing year was very eventful in the economy. The most sensational, of course, be called the decision to raise value added tax to 20% and pension reform. However, in 2018, there were other no less significant events — from the usual closing of the banks to an unprecedented excess of revenues over expenditures. In the global economy 12 months ended "black eve": the Western stock exchanges have experienced the toughest December in recent years. The "news" analyzed in figures main events of 2018.
2.5 trillion rubles
So can be the Federal budget surplus this year. If measured in percent of GDP, it is 2.5%. And that's pessimistic assessment. The figure is a record for the modern history of Russia. The last time the budget showed a plus in 2011. Then, the surplus amounted to 440 billion rubles.
This "net profit" became possible thanks to the budgetary rules of the Ministry of Finance. Its essence lies in the fact that the expenditure part of the Federal budget is formed when the price of oil at $40 a barrel. If black gold is more expensive, all earned in excess of $40 goes to the national welfare Fund for the formation of the so-called "safety cushion".
However, a number of economists have criticized the Finance Ministry for such a hard fiscal rule. For example, the Chairman of the accounts chamber Aleksey Kudrin has repeatedly stated that the rule can be mitigated to $45 per barrel. This would increase budget expenditures for execution of may decrees of the President without raising VAT. In the financial-economic bloc of the government to criticism replied that the oil price is quite unstable and depends on many factors — from the compliance agreement by OPEC countries to the us sanctions against Iran.
In summary, the Finance Ministry refused to mitigate the fiscal rule. In the next three years the Russian Treasury will also be in surplus, it follows from the law on the Federal budget for the 2019-2021 years. So, next year it will be 1.9 trillion roubles (1.8% of GDP) in 2020 — $ 1.2 trillion (1.1% of GDP), and 2021-m — 952 billion (0.8% of GDP).
Is the number of credit institutions ceased to exist in 2018, follows from statistics of the Central Bank. Although in 2013, in Russia there were 956 financial institutions. Controller all this year continued its campaign to improve the financial system. The Central Bank removes from the market an ineffective and unfair players. The same process has already led to a reduction in the number of branches of credit institutions per capita. According to the Central Bank, this year, a million Russians have 211 branches of banks. In 2013, there were 325.
Almost all of the assets of the banking system have the world's top 30 players. They mainly cater to the Russian population and business. The rest of the organization are too small. The result was the consolidation of the banking sector as a whole. Major lending institutions are buying up smaller ones. Only one VTB this year bought three of the regional Bank.
However, the shrinkage of the financial sector does not prevent its development. For example, a record pace increased lending to individuals by 22% compared to the previous year. This does not diminish the competition between banks. Each of them seeks to improve conditions for customers. For example, a number of banks in the next year plans to introduce at their ATMs technologies cash and face drawings of veins on the palms. That is, a Bank card to withdraw money is no longer needed.
This can be inflation by the end of this year, predicts the Central Bank in its latest release on the key rate. The acceleration of price growth was affected by the devaluation of the ruble as a result of the April sanctions. The fact that a third of the goods on the Russian market of imported and purchased in dollars. Spring weakening of the ruble in the cost of production is reflected not once, but a six-month delay, as part of imported products, purchased at the old prices, all this time was stored in warehouses. But the new party this autumn came with the exchange rate difference.
Another factor in the acceleration of inflation in the second half of 2018 has become the future increase in value added tax from 18% to 20%. Even in the summer, the Central Bank warned that the producers in advance will lay the VAT rise in the cost of goods.
Under the effect of the tax increase is occurring in 2018, the weakening of the ruble, the annual inflation rate will peak in the first half of 2019 and will be 5-5,5% by the end of 2019. The quarterly rate of consumer price growth in annual terms slowed to 4% in the second half of 2019, the Central Bank predicts. Annual inflation will return to 4% in the first half of 2020, when the effects of the incident of the weakening of the ruble and the increase in VAT will be exhausted.
Although in the first half of 2018 — before the government announced an increase in VAT, the inflation picture was more than favorable. So, in March and April 2018 in all 85 regions of the country the growth of prices in annual terms did not exceed 4%. And in August, Russian inflation was zero.
this year the government has approved developed by the Ministry of economic development forecast in the long term — until 2036. In this document, the Ministry Maxim Oreshkin expects that over the next 16 years of inflation every year will be 4%.
To this level increased the key rate of the Central Bank at the end of the year. In September, the regulator raised it for the first time since 2014. The reason for this is the growth of inflationary risks due to the increase in VAT. The regulator noted that the decision to increase rates is proactive in nature and aimed at limiting possible increases of prices.
Also, the Central Bank draws attention to the fact that uncertainty remains as to the further development of external conditions. The U.S. Treasury had to enter "hell" the option of sanctions against Russia this November, but postponed its decision on 2019. It is assumed that Russian banks — Sberbank, VTB, Rosselkhozbank, Gazprombank and VEB can be disconnected from the international financial payments system SWIFT. Also the American Ministry of Finance may prohibit the purchase of the new Russian debt. The implementation of such a scenario of sanctions can significantly hit the Russian currency, which invariably affect the inflation rate and the key rate.
the Increase in the latter, in turn, will lead to higher interest on loans, including the mortgage. Thus, a two-year credit boom in the market of housing crediting can be completed. But will increase the interest yield on Bank deposits. As a result, consumer model behaviour may change in the savings. That is, citizens will be more to hoard than to spend. The decline in consumer activity may slow the growth of the Russian economy. 've talked about this economic development. According to their forecast, GDP next year will grow by 1.3% after 1.8% in the same time.
are the minimum and maximum values, which Brent reached in the current year. The main export goods became more expensive in the spring. By early June he had hit the ceiling of $70 per barrel. April sanctions against Russia on the price of oil is not affected, since the restrictive measures had not affected production. Indirectly, the high price of black gold had a positive impact on the ruble. Prior to the sanctions, the U.S. currency fell to 53 rubles per dollar. However, the ruble is not so dependent on value of main export goods. Therefore, the restrictive measures against Russian business in April has hit the national currency, and she didn't even rising in price oil.
However, by the end of this year there has been a reduction in the cost of black gold. In December in the course of trading Brent crude fell to $49,17 per barrel. First of all it is connected with the recent pause in the OPEC deal to its renewal. Also the price of oil did not support sanctions against Iran, as they were softer than planned.
the Government in the high cost of black gold in the long run does. Thus, the forecast of economic development to 2036 States that in the years 2019-2024 oil will cost an average of $57,6 per barrel in 2025-2030-x — $ 52,2, and in 2031-2036's- $55,5.
the Russian budget during this period is largely planned to be funded through non-oil revenues and increase non-oil exports.
so in average sank indexes of the U.S. stock market in the last month of 2018, losing all of its annual growth. Since the beginning of December the index of industrial companies Dow Jones fell by 15.6%, the indicator of wide market S&P500; is 15.7% and the benchmark companies from high-tech Nasdaq fell by 16.8%. This is the most rapid decline since the crisis of 2009: in February the Dow Jones fell 21%, S&P500; — on 21%, and the Nasdaq by almost 22%.
A truly "black" began on Christmas eve — one day us stocks fell nearly 3%. The blame for the situation in the US economy — according to experts, it is close to overheating. The Federal reserve has lowered its forecast for economic growth due to trade wars and is now planning not three, but two interest rate hikes in 2019. This suggests that the regulator is not confident in driving rapid growth, which would require a tightening of monetary policy and cool the economy.
In mid-December, the Russian market managed to protect itself from this process, largely thanks to the sales that we had during the year. However, in the last week of the year and Russia seized a sale mood: MICEX lost 1.5%, RTS — by 2.2%.
the Yield of US government bonds is almost equal to dividend yield stocks — investors choose virtually risk-free assets, fearing that the earnings will fall next year. According to experts, in January, the key us index, the S&P500; — will decline another 5%.
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