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The Russians are preparing for the worst and are waiting for higher prices next year. The Bank of Russia has noticed an increase in inflation expectations of Russians in December. Earlier, the Central Bank warned that by the end of next year prices could rise to 5-5. 5%. Meanwhile, experts believe that the Russians will feel inflation is at least two times stronger than the official figures.
Before the increase in VAT from 18% to 20% from 1 January 2019 the Russians began to prepare for the worst. As notes the Central Bank, inflation expectations rose in December to 10.2% after a 9.8% a month earlier. This was reported in the regular reviews of the Bank of Russia "Inflation expectations and consumer sentiment".
the Russians have pointed to as reasons for the increase in their inflation expectations directly as the VAT increase, and the numerous publications about the coming price increase.
On a short-term inflation expectations of respondents in December reflected seasonality: 12% of respondents predict a rise in prices before the New year, and an increase in regulated tariffs from January 1 ("always grow before the holidays, New year, high demand").
In the coming months likely to further increase in inflation expectations under the influence of the VAT increase, says the Central Bank. That the Russians should prepare for the worst next year, experts say for a long time.
As noted in the December report, the Bank of Russia on monetary policy, in 2019 a number of goods and products will rise.
So, it is expected that the price of gasoline and tobacco products can grow by 4.6%, the cost of automobiles — 0.2%, wine production — by 0.9%.
among the reasons for the rising prices, which then indicated the Bank of Russia, in addition to increasing VAT — increase in excise duties.
In 2019, the most significant growth of excise duties is expected to gasoline and diesel fuel, but it is not fully transferred to the prices of those fuels, noted the Central Bank. In accordance with agreements with the government to stabilize the situation in the fuel market of the largest oil companies have pledged to maintain retail fuel prices until the end of 2018 at the level of may.
In General, the total contribution of the increase in excise duties in the annual inflation rate can be about 0.3 to 0.4 percentage points, said the regulator.
as for the increase in VAT, as written, the Bank of Russia, "there is still uncertainty as to how to react to the prices of the VAT increase".
the Bank of Russia said in a release on the decision to increase the key rate to 7.75% on December 14, under the effect of the VAT increase happened in 2018, the weakening of the ruble annual inflation to temporarily accelerate, reaching a maximum in the first half of 2019, and will be 5-5,5% by the end of 2019.
Thus, rising prices next year will go beyond the designated Bank of Russia target level of 4%.
"the Fact that inflation next year will go above the target announced by the Central Bank, no doubt. But even with the negative developments officially expect the consumer price index is unlikely to grow higher than 8-10%. Perceived inflation, which is already close to this threshold, it may exceed 15%" — says the analyst of "Finam" Alexey Korenev.
According to him, next year should be prepared, in particular, to growth of prices for new buildings because of the transition from equity to project financing with the use of escrow accounts. Such a scheme will lead to the fact that housing purchased during the construction phase, can rise by the end of 2019, the year at 8-10%. Will inevitably reach for them the price and ready for new construction, but also for "secondary" — most likely, by 3-4%, says Koren.
"with regard to fuel prices in January are unlikely to see a sharp rise — the government has taken a number of measures restricting the actions of "oil" in this area that will allow for some time to keep the cost of gasoline and diesel fuel within acceptable limits (about 1 to 1.6%).
However, in the spring, when the restrictions will be lifted (unless, of course, not the new), it is possible to expect significant increase in fuel prices, and very high rates", — the expert believes.
by the end of 2019, in the case of the implementation of the "neutral" scenario, the official inflation rate may increase by 5-6%. Feel the Russians inflation will be about two times higher than the official, concludes Aleksei Korenev.
mark Goikhman, a leading analyst of TeleTrade, said that "the year of the pig will enclose a pig to Russians". So, according to experts, the rise in consumer prices in 2019 will be at least a 5.5-6% according to the method of Rosstat, but it will be perceived as 10-12%.
Anton Bykov, chief analyst Center analysts and financial technologies, also agrees that the fears of Russians about the acceleration of inflation in 2019, totally justified. "Such development of events and waiting for the Russian monetary authorities and the Russian business", — said the expert.
If you look at the dynamics of change in the rate of inflation from August, you can come to the conclusion that manufacturers have begun to lay future additional costs in the cost of goods and services, says Alexander Shustov, General Director of "Mani Fanny".
So, inflation accelerated from 2.5% in July to 3.1% in August to 3.4% in September, in October continued to rise to 3.5% in November to 3.7%.
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