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For capital markets this year has been difficult. The us stock market by the end of 2018 fell to 15-20% with the August and October highs. The ruble has weakened by 20% against the dollar and the price of Brent crude at the end of the year have fallen by 40%. In anticipation of the new year, Forbes magazine asked experts to give advice where to invest 1 million rubles in this difficult for investors.
Alexander Losev, the General Director of "MC Sputnik — capital Management":
the Following year will be difficult and perhaps crisis. So to investors the challenge now is rather to save than to earn, that is, the priority should be given to reliable assets with high credit ratings and low market risk. This, for example, short-term bonds/Eurobonds of the States largest corporations and banks. The main currency of assets – dollar. Assets in other currencies, like the ruble makes sense to keep only if their profitability is able to at least partially compensate for currency risk. For the base rate should be the yearly dollar LIBOR (currently 3,07%). Thus, dollar deposits at a rate below 3%, and also rouble deposits and short bonds with a yield below 8% savings will not provide.
a Separate category of assets – dividend stocks, where yields can exceed 10% per annum. Investors are often pleased with the company's mining and metallurgical sectors, as well as oil and gas producers. But to stock selection must be approached very carefully, taking into account the financial performance of companies, and as industries and global demand, since there are market risks are much higher than in bonds.
Natalia Smirnova, an independent financial adviser:
If the investor has a savings in the currency, the ruble, then the options he has several. A more conservative investor can recommend to buy OFZ, maturing through 1-2-3 years via IMS type A. In this case, it is good to invest it in December, to the beginning of 2019 to obtain a tax deduction. You can also consider structured products with full protection on the growth oil, growth of the Russian blue chips (you can choose structured products on the index growth of the Russian market or on a separate paper, for example, Sberbank, Aeroflot), on the growth of American index S&P500; or certain American papers, such as Amazon, Facebook, FedEx and so on. If the investor is willing to assume greater risks, you can go to shares of Russian companies, Chinese, British and American it companies on the local grassroots, for example, using the commercially available exchange traded funds (ETF), to diversify approximately equally distributed between funds of different countries.
to Switch from rubles into foreign currency is not worth it — too much of a panic in the market due to the fall in oil prices and the General negative background. To think, in my opinion, buying foreign currency is at a level at 66 and 67 rubles per dollar. If the investor has savings in dollars, then I would recommend conservatives Eurobonds (not subordinated, not convertible, liquid) with repayment until 2023-2025 years. For equivalent of 1 million rubles, which are likely to be Eurobonds Mosbirzhe where they are available in small lots. You can also consider structured products first to default (but that they were tied to the bonds of reliable companies, and not subordinated, not convertible, not eternal), or structural products with full sewn in foreign currency to the oil price increase of Russian and/or American market. For ready to risk – it is possible to add ETF shares in Russian, Chinese, British, American it companies, but in foreign currency.
Alexander Bakhtin, investment strategist "BCS Premier":
There are a number of fundamentally undervalued businesses that can be included your portfolio now, but with a time horizon of several years. For example, a Bank, whose paper, despite the strong financial results since the beginning of the year in the minus 19%, and in February showed growth of over 20%. It is impossible to say with certainty that the asset will rise by the end of next year, as this is a Russian asset, but on the long horizon the current price levels attractive.
In the same view, you can look at "Gazprom", whose shares are trading at multi-year lows. Company Yandex, the price in dollars is close to placement levels in 2011, But Yandex is more than 50% of traffic to e-Commerce in Russia, is a successful taxi business and a number of other areas. Also interesting is the largest airline of the Russian Federation and one of the beneficiaries of lower oil prices the company Aeroflot, the stocks of which are traded more than two times lower than historic highs.
Andrey Revenko, partner, managing Director of unit for work with private clients "ATON":
, in long term investment (3 years), it is the perfect tool for the investment of 1 million rubles is an individual investment account (IIA). The maximum investment amount it is 1 million rubles per year, in addition, it provides tax benefits.
If we talk about the specific tools for investing, here in the first place, an important diversification and asset management from professionals in the stock market. The most interesting product that is suitable for the data characteristics for the private investor is a mutual investment Fund. Mutual funds exist for every taste and color: the dollar and the ruble, the stock funds (both Russian and Western) and bond funds, and so on.
To the current realities, the most from 1 million rubles, I would recommend to invest in dollar-denominated funds to reduce risks of volatility of the ruble. At the same time, we see a serious correction in the U.S. stock market, which opens up a good opportunity to buy them at a discount.
Thus, a small portion of the portfolio is to invest in funds American stock (most only looks like the technology sector). The rest of the most part I would recommend to invest in the strategy of Eurobonds, which provide more predictable returns and momentum.
Maksym Tymoshenko, CFA, Director of financial markets operations of the Bank "Russian Standard":
Obviously, the markets in 2019 will be characterized by very high volatility. Therefore, investors should choose high-quality assets that can serve as a safe haven for investors during the storm in the markets. In such a situation I would prefer fixed income instruments of high quality issuers with an investment rating, denominated in U.S. dollars. It is in these assets will go and are already investors, closing risk positions.
Strategy to purchase high quality corporate names, preferably with a short duration on dips market also has a right to exist. But it requires a thorough analysis of issuers. Unfortunately, despite strong macroeconomic data for Russia, I would avoid Eurobonds of Russian issuers, including government securities, like the securities of emerging economies, which also carry additional risk due to the sanctions agenda.
I would have also avoided investing in equities and investing with leverage. If there is no access to good reviews and there is no opportunity to conduct its own analysis of issuers, it is better to invest in broad indexes fixed-income investment grade securities, but be sure to pay attention to the liquidity of the latter. Well as the main Board, if circumstances allow, it is better to invest in their own education and development. These investments will definitely pay off!
Anton Rakhmanov, managing Director for the development of the product offer alpha Private:
Our position is to maintain a conservative approach. The world economy is close to a late stage of the growth cycle, there are downside risks to the GDP of the largest economies and falling corporate profits. The Russian market is also a difficult situation: in addition to General background, we're under pressure because of the sanctions factor and geopolitical risks, which are impossible to predict. Plus a high dependence on natural resources.
Our recommendation is to begin to diversify the portfolio by currency. For further action, the question may arise: is it worth to invest in this market sentiment? Our answer: Yes, because high quality portfolio will reduce risks and to calculate the yield above the Deposit rate.
So, in the ruble part seems interested in buying short-term OFZ issues that are highly liquid and traded with a yield above rouble rates in reliable banks. The best solution for the monetary part of the fixed income instruments. In connection with the legislative changes, now is the time to invest in the Russian Eurobonds without the risk of currency revaluation, is also interested in bonds of issuers from developing countries.
Two basic rules that we recommend you to follow when compiling a portfolio is to select bonds with maturities of 2-5 years and give preference to the instruments with high credit quality. Again, now the markets time for conservative solutions focused on capital preservation.
Dmitry Golubkov, head of investment management strategies for financial assets Citibank:
, Citi Analysts are now positive about the prospects of investments in shares of companies in continental Europe and emerging markets. European shares are trading at a discount of about 25% of the U.S. stock market, the growth of corporate profits in 2019 is expected to reach 10-12%. Emerging market equities are trading at an even lower ratio price-earnings and growth in corporate profits in 2019 they are expected at 11%. Among shares of developing countries especially interesting is the Asian shares.
At the global bond markets analysts are positive about investments in short-term U.S. corporate bonds investment grade (US IG) and U.S. high yield bonds (US HY): according to the types of instruments there is a good return in USD (3 to 7% per annum). Interesting are also represented emerging market bonds, particularly Latin American bonds (local and hard currencies) and Asian bonds (predominantly in hard currencies). Especially noteworthy in Chinese bonds, as corporate (issuers — the basic state of the company and the individual developers), and government bonds China, where a rapidly growing share of foreign capital.
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