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The Russian currency may continue to strengthen, emerging on the Moscow stock exchange in the three trading sessions of the new year holidays, according to respondents, "the Russian newspaper" analysts. A key role for the ruble this week will play external factors - trade negotiations between the US and China, statements by the US Federal reserve and the dynamics of oil prices.
the U.S. Dollar and the Euro during the first days of 2019 "relieved" about three rubles each.
Steady strengthening of the ruble in the first trading session of January mainly due to a price rally in the oil market since the beginning of the year, a barrel of European Brent crude rose in value by about 9 percent, says financial analyst "BCS Premier" Sergei Dejneka.
the Trend towards strengthening of the ruble may continue this week, admits the head of Department of operations on financial markets of Bank "East" Konstantin Kochergin.
first, market participants are optimistic about the outcome of negotiations between the US and China. Positive results from these negotiations may give the financial markets an additional powerful incentive, both positive and negative, on the contrary, it will create another wave of sales of assets.
second, the market continues to regain a positive attitude created by the speech of the head of the fed Jerome Powell last Friday, in which he said that the regulator is ready in case of need to adjust monetary policy, emphasizes Kochergin. Thus, the likelihood of interest rates declining and interest in risky assets grows.
On this background, increased investor demand for OFZ government bonds index RGBI overcame 134 paragraph and the beginning of the year, kept steadily above this level, as the U.S. dollar weakened on the world currency market, adds Deineka.
And thirdly, the price of Brent crude oil is trading above $ 58 per barrel on the background of reducing oil supplies by Saudi Arabia, the analyst said. According to Bloomberg, Saudi Arabia has reduced oil exports in December to 7.3 million barrels a day to 7.7 million barrels per day in November. Reducing mainly delivery to USA, Saudi Arabia, probably aims at the most quick effect on the market, said Kochergin.
the Most important event this week will be the publication of the minutes from the Federal reserve on January 9 and the speech of the U.S. fed Powell on 11 January, and the beginning of publishing financial statements by leading U.S. companies, indicates Kochergin. In his opinion, the preservation of the intentions of the us regulator to reduce the pace of rate hike, the ruble and oil will receive additional support.
it is not necessary to forget and about the sanctions agenda — it seriously limits the potential growth of the national currency, says the Director of the Department of financial markets operations of the Bank "Russian standard" Maksym Tymoshenko.
Subsequently, a negative impact on the ruble may have and plan for next week's resumption of purchases of foreign currency for the Ministry of Finance, the Bank of Russia emphasizes Kochergin. According to the forecast of the analyst, on Wednesday, the Russian currency will trade predominantly in the range of 67-68 rubles per dollar, and the rest of the week — in the range of 66.5-68 rubles to the dollar. Tymoshenko expects that on 9 January the expected shopping corridor will be of 66.8 67.5 per ruble for dollar, up to the end of the week to 66.4 67.8 rubles to the dollar. According to Deineka, 9-11 January, the Russian currency will remain in the range of 65.7-67.2 rubles to the dollar.
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