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The Number of unemployed will grow from 3.6 million in 2018 to 3.8 million people in 2019, according to the forecast of the Institute of economic forecasting (IEF) RAS. This is due to the economic slowdown and reduced staffing requirements. The likelihood of this trend on the labor market is high enough, agreed with the forecast interviewed by "Izvestia" analysts. In addition to lower GDP growth, this will contribute, in particular, automation of production and increasing the age of retirement. While in the expert community does not consider the increase in the unemployment rate to 5% critical. And in the Ministry "news" reported that ready for a possible increase in the number of officially registered unemployed: this year's subventions to the regions on payments to non-working citizens increased to 53.4 billion rubles.
having Spread subvention
the unemployment rate may grow with the expected 4.7% in 2018 to 4.9% in 2019, said in a macroeconomic forecast of IEF RAS (at the disposal of "Izvestia"). The number of unemployed will increase from the current 3.6 million to 3.8 million, and employment was reduced from 72.5 to 72.4 million people. As explained by the "Izvestia" one of the drafters of the forecast of the Deputy Director of the RF Academy of Sciences Alexander Shirov, formally, the working-age population by raising the retirement age will be greater, while the demand for personnel will be reduced. Including thanks to the growth in the number of unemployed will surpass the reduction in the number of employed (thousand 200 vs 100). However, this ratio is also attributable to features of the calculation methodology of the balance of labour resources.
the Evaluation of economic development made in the forecast of socio-economic development in the years 2019-2021, more optimistic. The Agency suggests that the number of unemployed in 2019 will amount to 4.8% and then decrease to 4.7%. The Ministry of labor on the question of "Izvestia" about the forecast of the number of unemployed this year, said that guided by the Ministry of economic development. However, the Department added that it will closely monitor the situation on the labour market in connection with the possible increase in the number of officially registered unemployed by increasing the size of unemployment benefits. This situation is calculated in advance — subventions to the regions on payments to the unemployed increased from 39 billion in 2018 up to 53.4 billion rubles in 2019, the Ministry said.
the projections on the labor market experts as a senior researcher repelled by the slowdown in economic growth, said Alexander Shirov. The rate of growth of GDP, according to their calculations, will decrease in 2019 to 1.2% compared with projected this year's figure is 1.8%. According to him, this is evidenced by several factors that have to be restrained estimates.
In particular, investment activity in 2018 was quite low, in spite of favourable conditions in the form of high oil prices. So, public companies last year sent 60% of profits on dividends and 40% on investment, which is approximately two times below the average for the past 10 years increased, said Alexander Shirov. Besides, the company is not invested in upgrades. It is largely due to the purchase of imported equipment, and in January-October 2018 deliveries to Russia of foreign investment goods in us dollars decreased by 14.2 percent, the study said. Based on the fact that the company does not plan to expand, the demand for personnel at least will not increase. And given the growth of labour productivity, the need for employees is likely to fall, concluded Alexander Shirov.
Robots instead of people
the number of the unemployed will indeed increase, agreed with the assessments as a senior researcher associate Professor Plekhanov Russian University of Economics Ludmila Ivanova-Shvets. In addition to the slowdown of economic growth, it will contribute to the automation and digitalization of production, says the economist. According to her, the company as a result of increasing production efficiency lay off more employees than create new jobs for the economy as a whole.
Another factor that will weigh on the labor market, will be low adaptability age employees to change technological conditions of production, said the Director of Expert-analytical center of Russian Academy of Nikolay Kalmykov. In particular, many employees who lose their jobs, could not find a job because their skills will be outdated for modern requirements of employers.
In General, all the experts interviewed by "Izvestia", do not consider the increase in the unemployment rate to 5% critical. Even with the increases to this level, Russia will remain a country with one of the highest rates of employment, said Alexander Shirov. So, the average for member countries of the Organization for economic cooperation and development, unemployment data for October was 5.3% in the Eurozone and 8.5%.
However, despite a reasonable employment, the government can use a number of available levers which will contribute to the improvement of the situation on the labour market, experts say. For example, it is necessary to implement retraining programs age employees to ensure that they were in demand for high-tech industries, says Nikolay Kalmykov. According to Lyudmila Ivanova-Shvets, it is advisable to increase the flexibility of the labour market — in particular, to encourage companies to post jobs, implying part-time work.
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