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Average mortgage rate in 2019 or close to 10 percent or exceed this mark, analysts predict. Despite the high demand of the Russians in the improvement of housing conditions, the demand for home loans may slow down.
According to the Bank of Russia for October (the most up-to date statistics), the weighted average mortgage rate was 9.41 percent. In the first half of 2019, the average rate in the mortgage market can reach of 10.3-10.5%, predicted the chief analyst of the Bank "DeltaCredit" Natalia Vasilyuk.
In the second half it seems more likely a slight decrease and a return to values in recent months 2018, she admits. Thus, according to the CBR, in the second half of last year, the average rate fluctuated in the range of 9.41-9.57 percent.
the Main factors of rising interest rates is the increase in the key rate and increasing inflation, the peak value of which, most likely, will fall in the first six months of 2019 notes, Wasiluk. While the Central Bank in the second half of 2018 not only twice raised its key interest rate, but in fact did not exclude the tightening of monetary policy in the future.
"In such circumstances, raising interest rates in the economy will occur in response not only actions, but also on the rhetoric of the Central Bank of the Russian Federation, which in recent press release also expressed concerns about the increased level of uncertainty in external and internal environments (the situation in emerging markets, the dynamics of the oil market and the impact of the VAT increase on inflation and inflation on inflation expectations)," — emphasizes Wasiluk. The participants of the banking sector also has no confidence in the sustainability of macroeconomic dynamics, the analyst adds.
mortgage Rates in the first half may increase by 0.25-0.5 percentage points, expects the managing Director for sales network branches Absolut Bank Ivan, Atlas of the major species. Additional factor of pressure on rates, in addition to the acceleration of inflation will be capital outflow from markets of developing countries and yield growth in the stock market, he says.
the Need to improve housing conditions in Russia remains at a high level. By 2018 we can expect an increase in mortgage lending by half, said Wasiluk. But in 2019 the increase in demand for mortgages may slow down, not eliminates it.
According to the Atlas of the major species, demand for mortgages will not subside. Moreover, it allows a 15 percent growth in housing lending in 2019. This can contribute to the preservation of the banks down payment and requirements for borrowers and falling property prices, the expert believes.
because of rising mortgage rates will fall and the demand to refinance home loans, predicts, Atlas of the major species.
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