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Russian consumers believe that the situation with their incomes will deteriorate and inflation to rise. Why Russians look to the future with less optimism than people in other developing countries?
Russia takes the seventh place in the ranking of consumer sentiment of the population in developing countries. A study conducted analytical center of the financial company Credit Suisse. In the first place in this list was India, ranked second Brazil, third in China, behind them is Mexico, Indonesia and Thailand. Russia was on the penultimate place, with less optimism for their financial future are looking only in Turkey.
In the survey, the results of which were ranged the country, consumers were asked about how good now is the time for making major purchases, is the state of their personal finances to improve or deteriorate in the next six months, what the price growth they expect during the year, the impact on the income of the family in the coming year.
"the Largest economy in Latin America Brazil and Mexico are demonstrating a newfound optimism of consumers after the political turmoil, while the ongoing recession due to the weak currency and political risks in Russia and Turkey led to lower consumer confidence," reads the study.
Credit Suisse Analysts note that the factors that negatively affected the consumer sentiment in Russia began pension reform, the increase in the VAT rate, fluctuations in oil prices. Our country could be higher as last year there was a decrease in interest rates and credit growth, but revenue growth has not led to improvements in consumer sentiment. So, just over 40% of respondents with an income of less than 7,5 thousand dollars a year reported that they expect deterioration in their financial situation, the same answer was given by 15% of Russians with an income of 15 thousand dollars. Improve a small percentage (about 5%) those earning 60 thousand dollars a year.
Focus on the worst
Experts say that Russian consumers look to the future with pessimism because of the decline in real income. The population is impoverished due to the fact that revenues do not have time to rise as fast as prices rise.
"there is Nothing surprising in the findings of Credit Suisse, given the fact that the welfare of Russia's population is falling for the fifth consecutive year, no. Let me remind you that after the transition to the new methodology of Rosstat publishes data on changes in real disposable income quarterly, and yet the most recent data date back to January of this year, when they dipped by 1.3%. However, according to the statistical Agency, based on the study data provided by the SME sector, seasonally adjusted real wages for the first two months decreased by 0.3%. In fact, that the population is getting poorer, evidenced by the fact that the dynamics of changes in the volume of deposits of physical persons are not pleased with the rapid growth: after falling 1.4% in traditionally "skinny" for January, in February the indicator grew by only 1.6%. And despite the fact that the yield on time deposits after the CB's transition to a permanent increase in the key rate is constantly growing", — the member of SRO "Mir" Alexander Shustov.
"the Impoverishment of the population is directly linked to inflation, which has many social and economic consequences influencing all spheres of life. Inflation undermines all areas — from international relations to domestic monetary system — and, in General, leads to the stratification of society, its further depletion and exacerbation of social conflicts. These phenomena are not yet to the situation in Russia, but if the unemployment rate (4.9% as of February 2019), inflation expectations and inflation itself, consumer demand and other will continue wavering, or a negative trend without any positive changes, it may begin to occur in full growth in the state," warns the first Vice-President of "OPORA Russia" Paul Segal.
the Consumer demand in Russia has long been the main driver of economic growth, and its decline has led to stagnation in the economy, like the head of the investment Department of the company "BCS" Narek Avakian. "In 2010-2013 from General growth of GDP at 13.9% more than 10% is consumer demand. Therefore, in 2014, when real incomes began to decline and, therefore, consumption fell, the economy and stagnating — GDP growth rates do not exceed 2%. It demonstrates the consequences of the fall in real incomes. For Russian companies the domestic market is the key to sales of goods and services, so consumer and industrial demand plays a very important role in the growth of business and economic activity. Accordingly, the reduction in real incomes of Russians one way or another leads to a slowdown in the economy," says Avakian.
the Projections give hope
you can Count on a significant income growth is not necessary, but after a few years of possible weak growth.
"Forecasts give hope for the gradual improvement of the economic situation — in particular, this can be seen in the policy of the Central Bank of the Russian Federation, which plans a gradual reduction of the key rate in 2020, as well as on the current situation on the foreign exchange and stock market of the Russian Federation, where for several months established positive mood, increasing indices and quotes," says Paul Segal.
the Situation can change only due to the growth of wages, but resources for this is not, says the analyst of "ALOR Broker" Alexey Antonov. "Given the low growth prospects, salary expectations, with great difficulty you can imagine how will change the system attitude to work the majority of employed staff. It is assumed in this implementation skills including lean manufacturing and creating conditions for professional development, but if the main reason that makes people to work is the salary, then you can already give a certain forecast of what the situation may change only due to the increase in valuation of labor, and growth in this current environment of sanctions impact on the economy to appear out of nowhere," he says.
According to Narek Avakyan, while that of the lumen in relation to the incomes of Russians are expected. "The level of real wages in the public sector barely growing (the sector employs about half of all economically active population), the private sector since 2012 is in the doldrums. This year in the best case, you can expect to stop the decline in revenues. Weak income growth is possible in 2021 or 2022 (for the parliamentary elections, the authorities will probably try to boost the incomes of Russians). The negative impact on income would provide pension reform, and increasing debt and tax burden. A positive influence may likely decline in inflation, both statistical and observable," predicts the expert.
Anna PONOMAREVA, Banki.ru
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