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Business / Finance

Foreign exchange anomaly themes of the day 09.04.2019 at 21:03

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The Rise in oil prices and the absence of sanctions supported the ruble. Index Mosberg on high, while bond rates as never attractive. Is it worth trying to capitalize on this growth?

Tired of sanctions

the Political crisis in Libya and tougher sanctions against Iran provoked the attack of speculators on the oil futures market. The players take short positions, pushing up quotes. The price of Brent since the beginning of April has increased by 4.5%. Due to the shortage of oil in the global market, Goldman Sachs analysts predict that in the II quarter of the price of a barrel will rise to 72.5 per dollar.

On this background the Russian stock indexes almost daily updating the historical highs. On Tuesday, April 9, the index Mosberg reached 2 574,07 points. Since the beginning of the year, the market grew by more than 8%. The ruble is kept at a maximum with the beginning of the year: according to analysts of "freedom Finance", this week the dollar could fall to 63 rubles. The major buyers in the currency market, with the exception of the Central Bank, is now effectively dead. How to write a review of Raiffeisenbank's analysts, the banks have now an excess of free currency liquidity: 8.9 billion dollars as of March 1. The Finance Ministry has announced that it will submit in April for the purchase of foreign currency in reserves the budget rule 255,4 billion rubles, which is 54 billion rubles less than in March.

support for the rouble has also increased demand from non-residents. According to the company "Investment partners" for the week (30 March-5 April) only through exchange-traded funds in Russian assets came to more than $ 14 million, since the beginning of the year in our market ETF has invested about $ 600 million. Investor interest in emerging markets, including Russian, is growing in spite of the threat of sanctions. According to the analyst of the company "Discovery Broker" Andrei Kochetkov, many calmed publication in the American press that the issue of sanctions against Russia begins to bore us Congress. "Of course, for certain groups the actual topic, but it falls out of the main stream political process. Risks of new restrictions begin to decline," he says.

Grocery widget

investor Interest fueled in the upcoming season of dividend payments. Next week with the size of payments should be determined by the savings Bank. As expected, they can be about 16 rubles per share. This is a record amount of payments during the whole history of the Bank.

High oil prices and the weakening of the risk of sanctions is not the only positive factors for our stock market and the ruble. "Wait save low dollar rates, the launch of another round of quantitative easing in Europe, as well as tax and credit incentives in China increase the risk appetite among investors," says portfolio Manager UK "Sberbank asset management" Dmitry Postolenko. Since the beginning of the year, the MSCI Emerging Markets index gained 13%, while the MSCI Russia index has grown by 16%.

six Months bad weather

the Question is, how long can this situation be maintained. For example, in Goldman Sachs believe that the growth of shale oil in the US and increased supply by OPEC countries in the second half of the year will reduce the cost of Brent to $ 66. Similar predictions and Russian investment companies: second half of the year may not be good for the market and the ruble. According to the analyst "Discovery Broker" Timur Nigmatullina, the main factors contributing to the rise in oil prices, almost exhausted. And downside risks to the global economy because of trade disputes between the world's largest economies — the US and China pose risks of lower demand for energy. In his opinion, if the price of a barrel will drop to 66.5 of the dollar, it has virtually no effect on the exchange rate, but if the prices will fall to 40-45 dollars, our national currency could significantly be alleviated.

in addition, the situation in Turkey is far from being resolved. President Recep Tayyip Erdogan called for a recount in municipal elections in Istanbul. Since the beginning of year the dollar rose against the Turkish Lira by almost 8%. All of this also creates additional risks for emerging markets.

Financial Advisor "BCS Premier" Anton Berliner does not exclude that in the coming days on market may be a small correction. "Blue chips" have been actively growing for the last three weeks, after this active motion investors want to take profits, and it is a logical desire," he said. At the same time, if we are talking about more long-term investment, one should not hurry. "In our view, should stay in risk assets in the coming six to nine months", — says Dmitry Postolenko. Conservative investors, he recommends to pay attention to corporate bonds of companies of the first and second echelon, which allow now to earn an 8.5—10% on the horizon two to three years. This yields, in the opinion of the Manager, looks quite attractive, especially in anticipation of lower interest rates on Bank deposits.

Why shares rise

the Most interesting investment among Russian stocks may be companies in the oil and gas sector, offering high dividends. Leadership in dividend yield from "Surgutneftegaz". According to "Open Broker", in July the company may pay to shareholders over 7.6 ruble per preferred share, which corresponds to a yield of 18%. According to analysts "Finam" Sergey Drozdov, the quotations of securities of oil companies can still grow by 10%. He also noted that it "preferred shares" have good resistance to sharp market fluctuations.

Another contender for serious growth "Gazprom Neft". The company has reported increased revenues and sales of oil products last year. At the same time, analysts "Finam", its financial results, to a lesser extent compared to other oil and gas companies depend on exports. The share of the domestic market accounted for 43.2% of revenue. The consensus forecast of the market of 400 rubles per share, is now the paper of "Gazprom oil" traded in the area of 340 rubles. In the future the company plans to spend on dividends 35% of net profit under IFRS (currently — 25%).

alpha Bank expected that if the price of oil remains above $ 70 per barrel, it will reflect positively on the stock of other companies in the oil and gas sector. In addition, high iron ore prices and rising manufacturing activity in China will contribute to increasing of quotations of securities of companies in the metals sector, NLMK and Evraz. Securities "Polyus gold" and "Polymetal" can you show decline as the strengthening of risk appetite and optimism over us-China talks are putting pressure on gold prices, according to a survey of the Bank.

the Favorite in the financial sector are Sberbank, quotations of which with the beginning of the month has increased by more than 10%. In March, the Bank demonstrated a record-high profit of 74 billion rubles. However, some experts note that the technical paper of the savings Bank look overbought; — they carry the expectations of a high dividend yield. In the case of aggravation of the sanctions rhetoric, they have every chance to start again to lose ground.


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