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Business / Finance

10 million rubles for three days. Whether to copy the investments of top management

Banki.ru: themes of the day 21.04.2019 at 21:02

Banking and financial news on the website Banki.ru

Top-managers and owners regularly make transactions with securities of their own companies. How it affects the business and whether or not to repeat their actions?

the Banker and the investor

in just a few days the banker Andrey Akimov multiplied his fortune by buying shares of "Gazprom". In early April, the gas company announced that the head of Gazprombank acquired a stake in its capital — 0,017666%. Judging by the value of the shares at that time (about 157,5 rubles), a top Manager could spend on purchase of more than 660 million rubles, according to Interfax. Three days later (April 8) the banker closed your position, and collected about 10 million rubles. At the time of the action "Gazprom" on the stock exchange was trading above 160 rubles. If the banker kept the paper a little longer, its profit would have been greater: on Friday, April 19, the quotations of "Gazprom" were in the area of 162 rubles, having risen in price since the beginning of the month, more than 8%.

the Deal Akimova may be considered speculative. Paper top Manager has bought on the background of the influx of money into the Russian market. Many investors bought shares of "Gazprom" in the expectation of record dividends. The company intends to pay shareholders 246.9 billion rubles, or 10.43 per share (in 2017 and 2018 were paid 8 rubles). This was announced on April 11.

According to analyst BKS Sergey suverova, the April growth of quotations of "Gazprom" has been associated with the personnel changes at the company. "Market participants expect that will improve the quality of corporate governance," he explains. In February, Gazprom left the Deputy chairmen Alexander Medvedev and Valery Golubev, and April 1 to work in the Ministry of Finance has transferred the company's CFO Andrey Kruglov. In April it became known about the departure of another member of the Board of "Gazprom" Cyril Seleznev.

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a Further increase in the value of securities of "Gazprom" in question. Despite the consensus market forecast — 189 rubles per share, the factors for the rapid increase in its capitalization, not so much, experts say. Steady demand for gas and, as a result, financial growth, coupled with low valuation of securities of the company are offset by the costs of the company for the investment program, and greater geopolitical risks due to the project "Northern stream — 2". "The company has a low free cash flow and high costs, and it makes it difficult to increase dividends," says Suverov.

At the same time experts do not exclude that in the longer term, these costs will pay off and will allow Gazprom to increase capitalization and to offer shareholders generous dividends. "The potential dividend payments, the company can reach 14-16 roubles for two-three years, and this is somewhat higher than the yield on OFZ bonds or Bank deposits", — says analyst "Discovery Broker" Andrei Kochetkov. In the "Finam" expect growth of stock quotes "Gazprom" to 200 rubles, if the price fixates above the level 170 rubles.

the Index of an insider

"When we buy shares in great companies with excellent management, our favorite investment period is forever." The phrase belongs to the famous American investor Warren Buffett. However, besides the quality of the control very often, the value of the securities is significantly affected by whether the top Manager's stake in the company. "It is absolutely normal practice. In fact, it is a signal: "I am confident in the growth of capitalization and is responsible for it, "ruble", the risk of "own skin", says the Executive Director of the management company Finex Plus LLC Vladimir Kreindel.

This marketing tactic usually works fine: the purchase of shares by insiders is often perceived by the market as a sign that the company is confident in its future. This is used as the Western business and ours. For example, top-managers of LUKOIL, including its President, Vagit Alekperov, occupying third place in the rating of Russian billionaires Forbes, punctually carry out transactions in shares of his oil company. Thus they behave as professional investors by buying shares in times of market drawdowns. "Shareholders purchase of securities of "LUKOIL" actually work as a permanent buyback program that keeps the capitalization of oil companies are near historic highs," — said Kochetkov.

Another example is the banker Oleg Tinkov, who for several years had bought the paper private Bank in London to support quotes for investors. Then, he said, to increase the liquidity of receipts, he sold them on the exchange.

the sale of the shares by the owner of the company typically results in lower prices. The value of securities may fall, despite the positive Outlook and good fundamentals of the company. Recent example — LSR, the main beneficiary of which Andrey Molchanov in early April sold of 9.71% stake in the group. The company announced that it should increase the free float and the stock back in the stock market index. The transaction was at a price significantly below market (10 million shares of a businessman was rescued by 5.8 billion rubles), and it pushed quotes down LSR.

False alarms

Now the shares of LSR is traded at a price of about 666 rubles. Investors who managed to buy them at the beginning of the month on the lows, earned a yield of 8-10%. To restore capitalization, the developer was able after he announced the payment of dividends (78 rubles per share) and has published quarterly results. The group increased sales by 22%, and sales of real estate amounted to 187 thousand sq. m.

However, the principle "buy cheaper" in the case of insiders does not always work. The most striking example is the sale of "Magnet" Sergei Galitsky. Since his exit from the business (February 2018) the securities of the company fell by a third. Raise the capitalization did not help nor support of the new shareholder nor invited from X5 managers who bought shares of the retailer. News about the possible purchase of a network of hypermarkets "O'key" only increased the skepticism of the players, especially as the closest competitor Magnit X5 Retail Group showed more convincing financial results. "Improving traffic indicates that X5 continues to increase its market share at the expense of its main competitor — the company "the Magnet" — wrote in the review of analysts of Alfa-Bank.

This is just one example illustrating why you should not just perceive the actions of top managers with securities of their companies. "The signals may be false, it can interfere with dozens of unpredictable factors. But the investor important long-term result," warns Vladimir Kreindel. For example, according to the head of the block of shares UK "the System of the Capital" Nikita Emelyanov, insider purchases are often image: came to work in the new company bought its shares. In addition, he says, sales of securities may be linked to upcoming major purchase, and not with expectations of a deteriorating business. "Also, insiders are not professional investors, and despite the fact that they know the business of the companies where they work, they are often a poor guide to the prospects of their shares," — said the financier.

Top

In summary, the private investor should not blindly copy the trades of top managers, according to experts interviewed by Banks.ru. "We should be guided by an objective assessment of the company's business, the time horizon of the investment return expectations/risk and your personal financial goals," says investment strategist "BKS the Prime Minister" Alexander Bakhtin. According to him, the actions of a top Manager should not be the primary indicator, and can only complement the overall picture. The head of Department of operations on the Russian stock market IR "freedom Finance" George Vashchenko recommends that you look at insider transactions, when talking about the stock of a large company, which also undervalued by the market.

Andrey Kochetkov from "Opening Broker" believes that tracking insider trading is, in the case of a long term investment and a top Manager buys a small packet of papers. "During a negative situation in the debt market, the head of Sberbank German Gref bought a large package of bonds of the Bank. It was a brilliant decision, because after the transaction, their yield decreased, while Gref has secured high profitability for a long time", — he brought an example. Therefore, according to the analyst, the purchase of securities by insiders is able to complement the picture and make the decision of the investor is more obvious.

albert KOSHKAROV, Banki.ru

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