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Labour migration no longer offsets the natural decline of the population. Does this mean that the labor market produces lack of training and employers will have to raise wages?
the Number of long-term international migrants in Russia does not grow in 2014, and their retirement continues to increase. Migration population growth in 2018, was the lowest in all post-Soviet years, it no longer compensates for the loss of population through natural attrition. This is stated in the April monitoring of the economic situation in Russia, prepared by experts of Gaidar Institute.
Russia is calling
"the Potential of migration to Russia from many post-Soviet countries are close to exhaustion, especially in the Western part of the former USSR. The number of people living outside Russia and Russian representatives of the titular peoples of Russia has been greatly reduced as a result of more than a quarter-century of repatriation to their historical homeland. In addition, between many countries and Russia is not so much of a difference in the socio-economic development even compared to 2000-ies. This makes the choice of migration in Russia's favor is not so clear, the residents of a growing number of countries pereorientirovanija migration in the EU and other countries," the study says.
the Number of temporary migrants residing in the course of the year in Russia, the past three years is around 9,2—10,2 million people (in 2013-2014, the indicators were mostly in the range of 10-11. 5 million). At the beginning of 2019 is also observed signs of a return to pre-crisis levels of temporary migration. Temporary migration is still mostly migration from the CIS countries: on April 1, 2019 in Russia was 8.2 million citizens of these countries (86%), March 1 — 8.1 million (85%). Keep leading positions as immigrants from Central Asia and Ukraine.
Experts of the Gaidar Institute indicate that the prospects of migration increase of the population of Russia are of particular importance in the context of renewed natural population decline, which in 2018 migration has not been able to compensate.
the human resources prevents all
In the coming years to do without labour migrants will be difficult, says financial analyst "BCS Premier" Sergei Dejneka. "In Russia there is a situation conditional "monopolization" of a number of industries where a significant proportion of the staff are migrant workers, mainly from Central Asia. Basically, those areas where for one reason or another not willing to work with Russian citizens. It is in the sphere of trade, transport, utilities and landscaping, as well as construction and agriculture. Of course, some part of the shortage of personnel in the above industries can be closed, in the same retailing is, in our opinion, really. But to completely solve the problem of personnel deficit in Russia without the involvement of the visiting workforce in the coming years will be difficult," says Deyneka.
it Can be assumed that the number of long-term migrants in Russia grows due to their invisibility to migration services — typically, the registration process is delayed, a person moves from one locality to another and goes into illegal stay in the country, says first Vice-President of "OPORA Russia" Paul Segal. "Now introduced amendments in the legislation, in order to accelerate the process of legalization of migrants' presence in Russia and their deportation in case of installation of the undesirability of stay on the territory of the Russian Federation. At the moment we can talk about the lack of qualified personnel — at the beginning of 2019, this figure amounted to 967,8 thousand vacancies, — but it is a problem especially of the system of education and training workers," he says.
According to the head of the Department of global studies "Opening Broker" Timur Nigmatullina, in theory, the outflow of skilled labor from Russia should have a significant impact on the unemployment rate. "In 2018 unemployment in Russia because of the demographics and the weak ruble entrenched markedly below the level of the NAIRU — indicator of natural level that does not affect inflation. Everything under it, usually carries with it proinflationary effect. Accordingly, in this case due to the lack on the market of "hands-free" creates the preconditions for increasing employee wages at a rate higher than productivity growth. However, the increase in the minimum wage (increased labour costs) and pension age (more than the number of economically active population) while limiting this factor", — said Nigmatullin.
the employer, not the employee
In the case of reducing the number of migrants trends in the market will not change — now is the time of the employer, not employees, I'm sure leading analyst of the "Expert Plus" Maria Salnikova. "To dictate trends in the wage will be employers, not the population. Work in the country is, if desired, to meet the needs of individuals and families in General existing offers of payment on the labor market. For the Russian economy reduction of migration flows will be affected only by the deterioration of official statistics on population growth. To improve conditions for young families and provoke a desire to support the growth of demography in the country for one 2019 social "buns" will not work," she said. "The issue is not the number of migrants and in their quality. Work without the specialized knowledge and skills will be able to perform citizens of the Russian Federation. We can say that there comes a time when the population should just work, regardless of the prestige of the activities and the level of payment. Or to sit at home and wait for better times or the best bargains in the labor market for months" — the expert adds.
Even with growing staff shortages, the business will not be able to pay more, said Sergei Dejneka. "In many ways, the reduction in the inflow of migrants in recent years has been caused by the decrease in the level of remuneration, which is further exacerbated by the devaluation of the Russian national currency. With high probability we can assume that the deficit will grow, but the business can respond to these challenges is very limited and point, spending money only on high-value specialists. Employers are always interested in staff retention, but to increase payments to staff require the development of business and economic development of the country as a whole. We have seen in recent years, sluggish economic growth, which does not allow companies to increase their spending on staff", — the expert concludes.
Anna PONOMAREVA, Banki.ru
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