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A Year ago, Banks.ru wrote about the beginner investor Michael, who opened IIS and bought bonds. What income he received and what strategy he should follow now?
Michael opened an individual investment account in a major brokerage company and has invested a total of 400 thousand rubles. He chose the bonds, as to understand trading stocks he has no desire, and bonds, in his opinion, the safest way to obtain a higher return than on Deposit.
as a result of his portfolio was six bonds, three of which are "long" OFZ. At current rates on government bonds (8,09%) yield of the purchased securities does not look too attractive. However, given the fact that some paper Michael plans to sell earlier, than will come the maturity, he chose the most liquid issues. Therefore, the proportion of OFZ in his investment in the sum exceeds 70%. In each issue OFZ novice investors have invested about 100 thousand rubles.
the Bonds were purchased after April drawdown of the market in late April and may of 2018, but the next package of anti-Russian sanctions (in mid-August on the website of the U.S. Congress published a draft DASKA imposing limitations against the Russian government debt) brought down the bond market. The fall has affected the corporate bond market, but securities companies and banks lost value not as much as the BFL. However, all positions at Michael came minus, in the amount of the loss from the reduction in the value of securities in the portfolio amounted to 22 thousand rubles, or 5.5% of the initially invested amount (excluding commissions).
How does the portfolio of Michael now*
Bonds purchase Price, in % to the nominal Current price, % of par value date of maturity OFZ 102 96,125 23.03.2033 26221 26225 OFZ OFZ 98,6 91,55 10.05.2034 26218 109,35 103,15 17.09.2031 Sistema B1R5 101,35 100,4 13.11.2026 "Domodedovo" DFF 1P-01 100,8 97,15 20.12.2022 Sberbank BO37 106,3 102,66 30.09.2021
the Data on the 13 may 2019.
As for all the purchased bonds were paid in coupons, the result looks not so bad. The average portfolio returns of 7.87% per annum the income received by the investor from coupon payments amounted to almost 32 thousand roubles. In the result, the yield, which was awarded to Michael for the year of ownership of the bonds amounted to 2.45%. This is significantly lower than he could obtain by placing the money on a Bank Deposit. On the other hand, in a similar situation last year turned out to be even professionals. Due to the negative revaluation of bonds in September 2018, the number of mutual Funds was a loss. At the end of last year, even the major players have shown a rather modest yield. For example, the UK bond Fund "Sberbank asset management" gained 2.67 per cent, but similar Fund of UK "Gazprombank asset management" showed the result of 2.72% per annum.
the Result of Michael would look better if he distributed the attachments more equal parts: coupon yield on corporate bonds included in the portfolio, by 1-2 percentage points higher than that OFZ. According to the asset Manager "Region ESM" Alexey Skaballanovich, the investor chose the paper with too much duration (6.5 years) and did not consider the risk of sanctions. Duration of a bond depends on the length of its treatment and shows the payback period of the invested money in the purchase of securities. This indicates the Manager, the questions raised and the credit quality of corporate bonds (excluding securities of the savings Bank). "If there are more diversified in terms of issuers and for the portfolio the result could be much better," he said.
Current yield of bonds in the portfolio
the Bonds Current yield in % Coupon % maturity OFZ 8,33 26221 26225 7,7 23.03.2033 OFZ OFZ of 7.25 to 8.41 10.05.2034 26218 8,25 8,5 17.09.2031 Sistema B1R5 of 9.89 9,9 13.11.2026 "Domodedovo" DFF 1P-01 9,23 8,1 20.12.2022 Sberbank BO37 of 8.15 to 9.25 30.09.2021
However, the tax deduction (up to 52 thousand rubles per year) portfolio return of the investor turned out to be quite high — 15,45%. It is clear that to count on such a generous income in the second year of investment, Michael. Even if made by another 400 thousand roubles, the tax deduction will have a less noticeable effect on final yield, because the deduction will be calculated only with the "new money". However, experts believe that investors should continue to update your account, investing in bonds and refinancing coupons. Moreover, says the head of the Department of market analysis company "Opening Broker" Konstantin Bushuev, the risks to the bond market has already realized, and the Bank of Russia last year has twice raised its key rate. "In the coming year you can expect to reduce the annual rate of inflation and the return of the Bank of Russia to the cycle of rate cuts. In this regard, we can expect that at a yearly horizon investments Michael close drawdown and yield profits," he says.
the expectations of recovery of the debt market there are other participants in the surveyed Banks.ru. Therefore, according to the asset Manager of investment company "Finam" Alexey Chichikin, the investor should not record losses on securities and sagging to do the rebalancing of the portfolio. "In the event of a new drawdown in worst case he will have to significantly expand investment horizons," he notes.
"Paper in the portfolio is reliable, and the portfolio does not change. Coupon yield on the market level," says financial Advisor "BCS Premier" Anton Berliner. However, he says, if Michael will decide to close your investment account after two years, it is better to wait for a rate cut by the Central Bank and to sell the long-term bonds, replacing them with short corporate bonds.
to Reduce the overall duration of the portfolio without selling existing bonds, you can invest new money and coupon payments in the short bonds maturing in the years 2020-2022. Such tactics suggest to the investor to stick to some experts. In particular, Alexey Chichikin among the most promising for investment securities calls OKAY-001R-01 with a coupon yield of 9.55% and TRANSMASHHOLDING-PBO-01 with a coupon yield of 9.95%. In addition, the Governor proposes to consider the issue Rosnft1R4 coupon yield of which is 8.65%. In may 2023 for these securities must pass the offer. "This option is best, based on the fact that the paper listed a little cheaper than face value of 99.9%. And if the Central Bank will stick to the scenario of lower rates, the quotations to the date of the possible closure of the IMS can rise above the nominal value and to provide additional revenue to the coupon yield," he explains.
Another option is to choose the bonds of the banks government-related and paper corporations. At relatively low risks rates can be higher than on FB. For example, the release RSHB17 maturing in October 2022 is trading with a yield of 8.43%, the yield of bonds Gazprombank BO-17 is of 8.74%. "It should also pay attention to the bond issues of Russian Railways and Rosneft. The credit quality of these issuers are not in doubt, but the yield is higher," says Skaballanovich.
albert KOSHKAROV, Banki.ru
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