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Business / Finance

What will happen to the ruble in the coming months

Banki.ru: monitoring of the banking press 17.05.2019 at 05:00

Banking and financial news on the website Banki.ru

Around the Russian currency in recent days created quite a positive news background. The positive fuse of the ruble could last another month and a half, allow analysts.

the Additional positive impetus to the investors ' demand for the Russian currency gives a positive rebound in U.S. and Chinese stock markets, analysts say FxPro. The authorities of both countries to convince investors of the readiness to conclude the bargain, which can put an end to a trade war - such rhetoric supports the demand for shares.

So the main event for the ruble in the short term will be the process of negotiations between the U.S. and China on the subject of trade tariffs and statistical data on the Chinese economy, says portfolio Manager of "Sberbank asset management" Dmitry Postolenko.

the Window of opportunity for the ruble remains in the second half of may-June in anticipation of a probable first reduction in the key rate of the Bank of Russia in the current year, which can take place at the meeting of June 14, the analysts add Nordea-Bank Tatyana Evdokimova and Grigory Zhirnov. A key factor to support the ruble will continue to advocate and demand for Russian Federal loan bonds (OFZ), they said.

the positive in the ruble should last until the end of the first half: high oil prices and active purchases of ruble-denominated government securities by non-residents will support the ruble, says Postolenko. In the second half of the year owing to the seasonal outflow of capital and decrease of ruble interest rates, the ruble may lose support, not exclude it.

According to the forecast of Postolenko in the coming months, the Russian currency will be in the range 64-65. 5 rubles per dollar.

the Roman MARKELOV