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Russian Salaries are rising more slowly than prices. In February and March real wages (calculated with adjustment for inflation) in annual terms did not grow, and in a number of industries and all have declined.
the Impact on the budget of state
the growth Rate of nominal wages in March did not change compared with February, amounting to, according to Rosstat, 5.2% year-on-year. As a result real wages in annual terms during these two months is not growing, according to assessment of Department research and forecasting (SSP) of the Bank of Russia.
In the Bulletin "what do the trends the" analysts of the Bank noted the slowdown in the growth of nominal wages in both the private and public sectors, and in the second case it was much stronger.
"According to our estimates, public sector salaries in February increased by 4.3% year-on-year, after a 6.8% year-on-year in January; in the private sector by 5.5% year-on-year after a 5.9% year-on-year. Strong deceleration of wage growth in the public sector expected and may continue until the beginning of the fourth quarter of 2019, when it will be indexed public sector wages", the review says.
According to the estimation of DIP of the Central Bank, in most industries of the private sector wage growth remains above average and in real terms remains positive — for example, in processing and trade, major industries by number of employees.
the graph shows that this year reduced salaries in the financial sector by 2%. Nominally increased, but were unable to overtake inflation wages in such areas as "transportation and storage", "public administration", "healthcare", "production", "education". This means that in real terms, the incomes of workers in these sectors decreased. In the "plus" managed to reach those who are engaged in manufacturing, trade, construction.
According to Rosstat, the nominal average monthly wage in February was 43 62 thousand rubles (in February 2018 40 443 thousand rubles). The economic development Ministry predicts that this year growth in real wages of 1.1 percent in 2020 — 2%. Then he will be at the level of 2.7% until 2024.
the growing salary where to go? In the oil industry, agriculture and IT
According to the analyst of the company "Finist" Irina, Lanis, the most successful from the point of view of wage growth in the sector, associated with the extraction, processing and export of mineral-raw resources.
"is Still one of the top industries who are now earning more in the dynamics — the agribusiness oriented not only to supply the domestic market but also for export. If we consider the public sector, such as health, there is nothing surprising in the lack of dynamics of growth of wages, since for many years we see the industry remain literally crumbs of the budget are either barely cover inflation rates, or even catching up on indexing," says Irina, Lanis.
at a Rate higher than inflation, wages are rising in the IT sector, says the Executive Director of the Goldman holding company Group Dmitry Helmersen. "Software developers, IT consultants, big data experts, testers, graphic designers according to the research service HeadHunter, the median salary of these professionals in 2019 will grow by 10% in Moscow and in the regions," he says.
the Doubts at experts call the indicators in such areas as trade and construction. "The optimistic indicators of the dynamics of wages look unnatural, because the trade with low purchasing power excessive speed can not be. In the condition that went to the escrow account, in fact, cut off developers from the most affordable investment and low demand for real estate boom in the working dynamics will not, therefore, expect the increase in wages do not. Perhaps if you took into account all payments and workers and top management, the dynamics will be positive, since, in addition to the permanent salary of the top management, regularly paid bonuses/rewards, which may alter the statistical picture of the incomes of the population," — says a leading analyst of the "Expert Plus" Maria Salnikova.
the Real income are not encouraging
for people and For the economy as a whole more important is the rate of growth of wages and real disposable income, says head of group of analysts CAPT (Center Analytics and financial technology) mark in real. "It includes, in addition to wages and other income: pensions, benefits, scholarships income from property and entrepreneurship and others. They are not only adjusted for inflation, but reduced by the amount of taxes and other obligatory payments. Thus, the indicator gives a picture of the actual income that can be used for consumption and savings," said Goikhman.
the Real disposable income decrease from 2014, according to Rosstat. In 2014, the decline amounted to 0.7% in 2015 and 3.2% in 2016 and 5.8% in 2017 and 1.2% in 2018 and 0.2%. "The first quarter of 2019 also showed a decline of 2.3%. According to the forecasts of the accounting chamber, there is a risk that the current year will reduce real incomes of the population", — the expert specifies.
the Average size and dynamics of wages across sectors in the first quarter of 2019
All suffer from a tax increase
the Reduction in real income associated with the increase in tax and quasianalogue load, said head of investiga "BCS" Narek Avakian.
"Now the tax burden of the economy already exceeds 30%, if we take into account the payment of various fines, the amount has reached 33 trillion rubles, or about one third of the size of annual GDP. To stop the decline in real incomes, it is necessary, first, to accelerate the growth of GDP, which is necessary to apply administrative, fiscal, monetary and investment incentives. Secondly, you need at least to mitigate the tax pressure on the economy. To date, the level of tax burden in Russia is one of the highest among developing countries and is already approaching the level of Western European countries," says Avakian.
"Among the spheres most affected by these processes, and financial sector, service sector, small and medium enterprises, the transport sector (especially in the segment of road transport). In these areas, the average salary decreased by more than 15% and the positive change here is not observed, rather the opposite — a negative trend. This was and remains the sectors that are experiencing growth in incomes and, consequently, wage growth, agriculture, some manufacturing industries (e.g. Aeronautics, automotive and so on), the IT sector and some other", — the expert concludes.
Anna PONOMAREVA, Banki.ru
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