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Stock prices for gasoline soared. Should we be afraid of the fuel crisis, which warned the owners of independent gas stations?
that stock prices of gasoline have risen sharply, said Independent fuel Union (NTS) and the Russian fuel Union (RTS) which represent the interests of owners of independent gas stations. In the period from 15 April to 15 may 2019 wholesale prices for Saint-Petersburg international Mercantile exchange rose 23% gasoline REGULAR (AI-92) and 18.5% for PREMIUM (AI-95).
"With a time lag of wholesale prices are broadcast in small wholesale. For example, in the Saratov region during this period, prices for AI-92 increased by 11.2%, on AI-95 — by 10.4%, and on summer diesel 2%", — informs the STC.
the Wholesale-retail margin on AI-92 in Russia on average today is 5 rubles per liter, AI-95 and diesel fuel — at 6 rubles per liter, according to the Union. They point out that the level of wholesale and retail margins already lead to unambiguous losses of enterprises of oil products supply.
the Russian fuel Union among the reasons for the growth of stock prices is called as the reduction of production volume due to the spring repairs to refineries and increase fuel supplies for export. In addition, market participants point to the lack of effectiveness of the damper.
the Fact "the Market is once again experiencing difficulty."
"as a result of a sharp rise in wholesale prices the situation has returned to last year's, when the marginal profitability of retail sales of motor fuel were either negative or below the minimum requirements," — noted in the RTS.
July 1, will complete the term of the agreement of the authorities with the largest oil companies by keeping prices of gasoline and diesel fuel. "We have a month to take prompt measures, otherwise the situation in the fuel market could spiral out of control, resulting in significant socio-economic upheavals for the citizens of Russia", warns the President of the Independent fuel Union Pavel Bazhenov.
Authorities assure that Russians have no reason to worry about the price of gasoline. "We expect that stock prices will rise because they are linked to global fuel prices. But today it is a premature alarm," — reports RIA Novosti Deputy Prime Minister Dmitry Kozak.
Experts say that in addition to global trends to the Russian market is influenced by other factors.
the Russian fuel market in April — may, indeed, under the influence of a global trend of rising demand for fuel in preparation for the summer season. But the domestic market, with increased demand there are several factors of imbalance, says principal analyst "BCS Premier" Anton Pokatovich. In particular, according to him, the damping mechanism of the government showed its complete inability of the balancing of price conjuncture of the market. "The lack of an effective mechanism to ensure the marginality of the wholesale and retail, causing enormous damage to the entire refining sector — in particular, independent refineries permanently increasing the size of the losses," says Pokatovich.
At the beginning of the year the situation for the gas station has somewhat improved, but now the market is once again experiencing difficulties, experts of the Academy of management Finance and investment Gennady Nikolaev. "Were in deep crisis retail began gradually to recover, but now there were signs of another worsening in market conditions. The thing is that, having satisfied the interim measures, officials decided not only to tighten the requirements for oil refinery for part of compulsory deliveries to the domestic market, but also weaken them in April. As a result, companies quickly switched to more profitable for them to export, while in the country, while only distant from the European part of the regions has arisen a very real shortage of diesel fuel, and in the near future it is expected a similar situation with gasoline. The situation is complicated by the fact that may was the planned major repairs of the plants and a refinery suspended deliveries," explains Nikolaev.
Inflation will run with gasoline?
gasoline Prices are regulated in the manual mode, so it is hardly to be feared for their great leap. "The situation is on control at the President of the Russian Federation, so a strong jump in prices is not expected. But the oil companies will use any opportunity to Jack up fuel prices in the country, as the company's management in market conditions will always take care of the profitability of their business," says Director of asset management Department of the company Erarium Group Denis Lisitsyn.
"Increased demand for gasoline during the summer period give producers an even greater desire to make money. Such sharp rise in prices for gasoline and diesel fuel could have a negative impact on the overall economic situation. If it affects inflation, the state will again have to act as a regulator and negotiate with oil companies about any anti-crisis measures", — adds the Deputy Chairman of the Board Loko-Bank Andrey lyushin.
Nikolaev also believes that the government will again have to resort to direct regulation, as another way to motivate the oil companies to supply fuel to the domestic market, apparently, will not happen. "The increase of excise tax maneuver, frozen retail prices — all this has resulted in significant financial losses. Prior to July 1, for the average consumer, the situation is unlikely to change: prior to this date will be the agreement of the government and the oil companies," he says.
If the government does not intervene in the situation, in the summer, gasoline prices will soar by 10-15%, which will lead to higher inflation. "At the moment we believe that the government is hardly enough time to offer any effective changes, for example in relation to the damping mechanism to curb the growth of fuel prices in the summer, with the help of market instruments. More than likely seen the continuation of "manual control" the pricing environment of the fuel market on the basis of the next agreement of the government with the oil companies. Otherwise, the increase in gasoline prices this summer may be of the order of 10-15%, which translates to an increase in prices by 0.1—0.3 percentage points to average 5.2 to 5.3 percent this summer" — sums up Pokatovich.
Anna PONOMAREVA, Banki.ru
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