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While Russian indices updating the historical highs, market participants are preparing for the inevitable, in their opinion, correction. Projections from the start date of a new crisis, experts differ.
In the world as there is no trade wars, no constant threat of sanctions. And even the fluctuations in oil prices can not stop the growth of the domestic stock market. Index Mosberg holds above 2,600 points, the RTS index approached 1 300 points. Since the beginning of the month, the market showed an increase of 2.6%.
Analysts say the dynamics of such anomalous. Indeed, in General, the weather in the emerging markets far from perfect: from mid-April, the MSCI Emerging Markets index is almost continuous decline. In may, he has lost about 9%. Stock prices of Chinese companies came under pressure after the White house decision to raise fees and sanctions against individual producers (Huawei). As stated in an interview with Bloomberg TV, renowned investor mark Mobius, the emerging market indexes would decline further, if the trade confrontation between the US and China will continue.
Reasons why our market is like under a glass cover, a few. First, the unprecedented generosity of Russian companies that seem to compete with each other in dividends. No sooner had the market to digest the decision of top management of Gazprom, which increased payouts to shareholders as the intention to change the dividend policy announced another state-owned player — VTB. The Bank promised to give the owners of securities up to 50% profit to 15% now. The shares of a credit organization in a single day increased by more than 10%. Analyst at Promsvyazbank Roman Antonov said that as you get closer to the season of dividend payments the index Mosberg can reach 2 700 points (plus 2.7 per cent to the current level).
second, unlike the U.S. market, which many call "overheated" our is still trading at a large discount to other emerging markets. "In the mind of many investors, "zero", when shares of the "Gazprom" was trading at 10-13 dollars", — says the analyst of "Alpari" Alexander Razuvaev. According to his forecast, by the end of the first half of the index Mosberg can get up to 2 900 points (plus 10.4 percent) and the RTS — 1 to 450 points (plus 13%).
According to the analyst of "Finam" Alexey Kornev, Russian market looks unreasonably better than other emerging markets, because investors have missed the positive news. "Any event, the application is now perceived by the market as positive and becomes a reason to buy," he says. In fact, this is from psychology: people with a stake in the positive development of events, intuitively filter out the news, leaving only those that confirm their expectations.
the Crisis or correction?
However, experts warn, those who are now buying shares of Russian companies, betting on the growth of dividends, could suffer severe disappointment. Because dividends, unlike interest payments, the company in its bulk is not guaranteed, and in the case of the global crisis, investors run the risk of not getting the expected result. Most high risk companies in the commodity sector. "There is a danger that many people now under the impression of future dividends go to shares, then the market will subside. The Russian market will not stand in the case of negative developments in the global economy. And the longer regulators delay this hour of X, the harder they will fall," says Kornev.
the Question is, when can this happen? The views of market participants surveyed Banks.ru, markedly diverged. As, however, and expectations regarding what will be the trigger for the start of a major correction, which some experts expected in June. The reason may be the abrupt collapse of the U.S. market. In this case, the flight of investors from risks will affect the Russian market.
Now the Russian currency supports not only the high price of oil, but the demand for paper. On OFZ auctions that week in a row the high activity shown by the foreigners. In the end, from mid-may the yield index of gobongo RGBITR fell below 8%. But in the case of a collapse of this support may not be enough. "Flight from risks, no doubt, will affect Russian stocks and the oil market. In General, the situation may be similar to December 2018", — said the Director of analytical Department of company "Region" Valery Weisberg. According to him, the market may fall by 10%. "The role of the damper can play the desire of investors to "see out" to the July dividend cut," the analyst notes.
the head of the Department stock of UK "Opening" Vitaly Isakov:
"Sooner or later a correction will happen. The likelihood that inexperienced private investor can change his portfolio by selling stocks before the correction and occupy them on the bottom, tends to zero. The best strategy for such an investor has been and remains the approach of "buy and hold" and the ability to purchase depreciating assets. It is worth remembering that even with the strongest crises of 1998 and 2008 the average annual yield of the Russian stock market taking into account the reinvestment of dividends amounted to 19% per annum. So afraid recesi not need."
But most experts don't expect that correction to happen so soon. They rely on the fact that the crisis and subsequent stock market decline will occur not earlier than in August — September. At the same time such reasons as the decline in oil prices or new sanctions against Russia, is not perceived as the main threats to the welfare of the Russian investment market. "A prerequisite for a crisis can become the reduction in the cost of Brent to $ 25-35 per barrel. But geopolitical tensions in oil-producing regions (Venezuela, Libya, Iran) and, in particular, the expected increased US pressure on Iran and the likely extension of the deal, OPEC+ is able to maintain the price is above $ 60, even in the face of a significant deterioration in risk appetites," says the analyst of the company "BCS Premier" Sergei Dejneka. Besides support it other experts, with the introduction of the budget rule, the sensitivity of the Russian economy, financial assets and currency to the fluctuations of oil has decreased significantly.
as for the sanctions, according to Vitaly Isakov, still all of the sanctions was the only reason to buy depreciating assets. Suffice it to recall how quickly the market played a fall in April 2018. "We do not expect the introduction of the "crushing" sanctions continue. Especially that "Eye of Sauron" has switched to China," says the Manager.
Much more impact on our stock market can increasing confrontation between the U.S. and China and the slowing of the global economy, which will lead to a drop in GDP of major countries and reduce trade. "Indirect evidence of this are the decline in the global PMI to the levels of 2009, inversion of the yield curve of us bonds, is often a harbinger of recession, having grown to the highs of the stock markets, as well as an understanding that the historical average duration of economic cycles is about ten years," says the broker on work with key clients of IC "Zerich capital Management" Vladimir Krokhalev.
the Ratio of private debt to GDP USA
Alexey Kornev from "Finam" specifies that at the beginning of this year, rates on long bonds was lower than for short papers. This inversion of the curve — the first sign of an impending crisis. According to his observations, it usually happens within a year. And the reason for the start of the crisis can become a problem with corporate debt of the United States. Judging by the dynamics, he can reach levels of 2018. Analysts say the "ticking time bomb" that will sooner or later work. "The next big global crisis is likely to be associated with the volume of debt of developed countries", — says head of Department of market analysis company "Opening Broker" Konstantin Bushuev. According to Razuvaev, it is possible that we will see a major bankruptcy, comparable in scale with the collapse of Lehman Brothers. In this case, the S&P index will fall to 1 800-2 000 points, while the index of Masuri collapse to 1 500 points, he predicted.
albert KOSHKAROV, Banki.ru
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