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Banks are increasing the loan portfolio to individuals is significantly faster than Deposit. Experts warn about the risks of the credit crisis.
On may 1, 2019 loans and other funds provided by banks to individuals grew at an annual rate of 23.8%, while the growth of deposits at that date amounted to 7.7%.
the imbalance between the growth of loans and deposits drew the attention of the analyst of Raiffeisenbank Denis Poryvai. "We see that retail lending is growing faster than the deposits. Banks give much more credits than taking deposits. On may 1, 2019, the increase in loans amounted to 3 trillion 49 billion (year-on-year) and deposits 1 trillion 493 billion rubles, which is almost two times lower. Under normal circumstances, these indicators should be in balance. If we view the data on 1 September 2017, we will see that the growth of loans amounted to 890 billion rubles, and deposits — $ 1 trillion 962 billion rubles. In 2018, these figures were in the balance," he said.
the Pendulum of balance between the growth rates of loans and deposits is swinging under the influence of many factors, said the chief analyst of the Center for Analytics and financial technology (CAFT) Anton Bykov. "In the period from 2012 to 2015, the pace of lending to individuals has greatly exceeded the growth of their deposits. In 2016, the balance swung sharply in the direction of the deposits, their annual growth then exceeded 25%, while loans to individuals fell by 5.7%. In 2017 there has been a balance, the lending of 1.1%, deposits — plus 4.2% of the finally with the beginning of 2018, the growth rate of consumer credit has accelerated dramatically," he notes.
because of the decline in real incomes falling growth rate of deposits, says the head of the Department of investment strategy of the company "BCS" Victor Muhamedyarov. "From April 2018 the number of deposits beginning to decline rapidly. Unfortunately, the reason for this is simple on the surface. According to the results of the survey "Levada-center" (Levada Lab), 65% of Russians have no savings. No. Real incomes fall for the fifth consecutive year. In 2013, real income fell by 8.3%. By 2018, the Russians sent a personal savings minimum amount for the last 20 years. And what happens to funds remaining 35% of Russians who have the ability to accumulate? The size of their deposits also continued to decline and is, according to "Levada-center", 140-219 thousand rubles. The majority of respondents having savings, live in big cities, in regions the situation is much less optimistic," he explains.
the Boom in retail lending due to the fact that Russians have not enough money for current expenses, experts believe.
"Banks in the pursuit of profit has created the credit boom. The Russians, tired to save, and those whose income is not enough to pay off your current expenses have become active participants in this boom," — says Anton Bykov. "We can confidently say the prevalence of growth of savings and investments over the financial loans in previous years. Today, however, the amount of funds issued by a financial institutions in the form of loans, significantly ahead of the amount of funds deposited in banks in the form of deposits. This situation is itself the result of financial instability and, of course, can cause even more problems in the state economy. The reasons for these negative statistics, the ratio of the volume of consumer retail loans and savings deposits are steadily falling real incomes and inflation, as well as a General decline in the purchasing power of the people", — said the Deputy Chairman of the Board Loko-Bank Andrey lyushin.
According to Denis Breaking, retail lending may grow faster when there is a consumer boom. "It happens when you grow the economy and, accordingly, incomes. Rich people want to live at the expense of future income, that's fine. But it is absolutely not normal, when lending grows with the falling revenues. This means that people do not have enough money to maintain the habitual standard of living, so they are forced to take out loans. However banks rely on retail development, as they believe that borrowers-physical persons will pay the debts. But overall for the banking system this means the accumulation of credit risks," he says.
When the debt load of the population is growing rapidly, it faces a new crisis, said Muhamedyarov. "Last year, the public debt to financial institutions increased by 22.8%. In just a year! If this figure is to some it may seem insignificant, in 2017, an increase of 13.2%. The current situation does not bear absolutely no good, neither borrowers nor the banks, nor the state. It threatens not only the bankruptcy of individuals, but also at least a slowdown in economic growth. The government needs to take urgent action if we do not want to repeat the credit crisis in the USA and Japan", — said the expert.
"the population has no other choice but to drive themselves in credit holes, to somehow make ends meet. Such dynamics can lead to inflated credit bubble. A similar story we have seen in the US in 2008. Only the crisis in 2008 more hit banks, not the population, which could, roughly speaking, "throw the keys and be free from debts". In our country such a situation could lead to mass bankruptcy of physical persons", — said financial analyst of the company "Finist" Irina Lanis.
According to Anton Bykov, within a few years after consumer lending growth rate is much greater than the deposits and reaches its peak, there is an economic downturn. "If this time it will work the same, within one to two years we can expect a surge of economic and financial turbulence, with all its consequences," he warns.
Anna PONOMAREVA, Banki.ru
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