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If you rely on savings in dollars and euros, you may want to think about where to invest the money. A simple purchase of foreign currency may not yield the expected result.
Every fifth contribution to the Russian Bank opened in dollars or euros, the statistics of the Central Bank. How many citizens of currency, we can only guess. Experts say that we are talking about billions. According to opinion polls, a third of the inhabitants of our country prefer dollars because they believe the American currency the most reliable way to keep savings.
the reason for the popularity of the dollar is obvious: almost continuous series of devaluations of the ruble is forcing many to look for alternatives. Ruble Bank deposits or bonds in the best case allow to extinguish a negative effect rostovskoy inflation, but the real purchasing power of money is usually falling faster than the official figures. And last year once again confirmed the correctness of the choice of those who bet on the dollar: during the year, the ruble fell against the overseas currency by 20%. Official inflation was 4.3%.
Can be repeated this situation, and in 2019? While analysts have no clear answer. The consensus forecast of Bloomberg — 65,4 rubles per dollar at the end of the year practically coincides with the current exchange rate. Since the beginning of year the ruble strengthened, ignoring all external threats. Support our currency afloat, the increased demand for ruble assets (OFZ bonds, shares) and high oil prices. Not a very reliable reason to trust the ruble. It is no coincidence that more than 70% of Russians polled by Hi-Tech Mail.ru this year we also expect a fall of the ruble. The dollar may once again be in a better position than other global currencies. "While the British pound and Euro remain under economic and political pressure because of Brexit, the dollar acts as a shelter in the face of a trade war," says the analyst of "freedom Finance" Alexander Ovchinnikov. According to her, the year the Bloomberg Dollar Spot (BBDXY), following the dynamics of a basket of ten leading global currencies against the U.S. dollar, increased by 5.5%.
However, the longer the horizon, the pair dollar/ruble is behaving not so clear. Despite the fact that in General over the last 20 years, the trend weakening of the ruble is obvious, easy to see how periods of growth and decline in the exchange rate of the American currency. For example, in mid-2009, the dollar was worth more than 33 rubles, but within a few years, the rate fell to 27 rubles. Quite a long period of strengthening of the ruble is seen around since 2003. And in 2015, when in January — February, the dollar reached 70 rubles, in may, he was already below.
the dollar against the ruble since 1999,
average bought 20 years ago dollars would increase the capital of the owner in rubles 2.7 times. However, this ideal model. In reality, investing in this long term in the currency, you could get an income much lower. Even if the money was placed in Bank deposits, a significant increase to would have failed, says analyst "Discovery Broker" Andrei Kochetkov. "During this time, the yield on foreign currency deposits were rarely significant. Let's take a fairly optimistic value of about 1.5% and will get that in 20 years, dollar Deposit will increase by 34%," he says.
But the main problem is the dollar savings is not even the low profitability of Bank deposits, and the fact that inflation in Russia makes this strategy highly inefficient. Even official inflation is much higher than the rate of devaluation of the ruble. For example, if in 2001 the cost of the minimum food basket in Russia was estimated to domestic statisticians at 850 rubles, its current value is already 4 242 ruble. Given the rates of annual inflation over the last 20 years, it appears that during this time life has risen even more — eight times!
the Rate of inflation since 1999, in %
it is Clear that not all goods and services rose in price in the same way. For clarity, you can get $ 100 for may 1999 (2 444 rubles) and current quotes (6 515 rubles). And to get more objective result, and even test purchasing power of the dollars in 2009, then the $ 100 needed to pay about 3,32 thousand rubles. How much and what you could buy with that money then and now?
As can be seen from the illustrations, in almost all cases, $ 100 now you can buy much less goods and services than 20 or ten years ago. This is most clearly on gasoline, the dollar value of which in Russia in 1999 has grown 11.5 times, or on the subway. Due to a double devaluation of the ruble against the dollar over the past ten years, the purchasing power of the American currency in relation to some goods rose slightly. For example, today the owner of $ 100 can afford to buy some more products than in 2009.
What can we conclude from these calculations? A passive strategy based on the expectations of devaluation of the ruble, are not always able to protect savings from rising prices. Especially if we are talking about tens years. "Many believe that the dollar is a very stable currency. However, the dollar, inflation also exists," said Kochetkov. And if you keep the dollars under the pillow, then there is no guarantee that even with low inflation (4% per year) savings will not melt. Some protection from inflation can be obtained if you place the currency on Bank deposits. However, their profitability is now falling, in the best case banks are offering rates of 2.5—2.9% per annum.
to beat inflation and earn higher returns, you should think about alternatives. For example, about investing in the stock market instruments. However, how to guess, what action will show rapid growth, and which will drop by this very long horizon? If we say that 20 years ago, we bought Coca-Cola shares, but now they would have brought a yield of about 40% (excluding dividends), and the securities of the same Facebook for five years rose in price three times.
More stable income can bring Eurobonds. For example, if you place the purchased currency in long-term bonds of Gazprom with maturity in 2034, the annual yield of which is over 5.5%. Also, according to Ovchinnikova of the company "freedom Finance", the yield of above 5% can be obtained by purchasing foreign currency bonds VEB with the maturity date in 2025. In the "Finam" suggest a dollar bond issue NLMK maturing in 2026 (4.7% per annum) as well as STLC paper maturing in 2024 and 2025. "If you sit in the securities to maturity and the Issuer will not permit them to default, they will get as the yield at which you buy Eurobonds (excluding taxes). And credit risk of Russian issuers are now small," says the analyst of investment company Sergey Drozdov. Of course, this does not apply to subordinated debt of banks: in the case of sanctions or transfer of the issuing Bank for the rehabilitation of such bonds in the first place can be attributed with the appropriate zeroing their value for owners.
albert KOSHKAROV, Banki.ru
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