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Banks in early 2019, the become more willing to lend to "bad" borrowers. Why: over good customers or players in a hurry to reach this consumer segment to the tightening of lending rules?
the Central Bank has documented a disturbing trend: consumer lending in Russia is not only slowing, but is growing at the expense of lower-quality borrowers. In the beginning of this year increased the issuance of loans to citizens with higher debt ratios (PDN). Thus, the share of loans with a PTI (payment-to-income, the ratio of monthly payments on all loans to the monthly income of the client — this indicator, the Central Bank decided to use to calculate the debt burden of individuals) above 80% in the first quarter of 2019 was 9.7%, which is 5 percentage points higher than the results of IV quarter of 2018. In the segment of customers with a PTI above 50% and above 70% observed similar dynamics (see chart).
Signal threat, as such borrowers ' credit risk is significantly higher, told journalists the first Deputy Chairman of the Central Bank Ksenia Yudaeva. While the Bank of Russia has not found an unequivocal explanation of this dynamics. "Why rose credits [high PD], we will discuss. Banks love to refer to borrowers with the shadow incomes which do not respect their models, but I think this is a situation that needs further study," — said the representative of the regulator.
the Loyalty of banks innocent
Not to say that in the beginning of the year banks increased lending to less affluent borrowers, said Director General of the credit history Bureau "Equifax" Oleg Lagutkin. "Some smooth growth occurs constantly and it is associated, rather, with the fact that banks conduct an active policy for cross-sales, when given a large amount with the simultaneous repayment of the current loan," — said the expert. As for the results of the first quarter, the reasons can be two: increase the amount of credit funds from one customer and a decrease in income. The first motive is the more probable, says Lagutkin.
the Average size of consumer lending in the first quarter amounted to 177,2 thousand rubles, said the study "Equifax" for RIA Novosti. It's about a quarter more than the average "check" a year earlier, while quarterly dynamics starts to slow down.
the lower income customers also should not be discounted, said Vice-President of "Renaissance Credit" Gregory Shabashkevich. "In the first quarter of 2019, there was a significant increase in the total monthly payment by about 15%. As incomes grow, this leads to an increase of the derived index PTI issued in portfolios," explains the expert. He, however, insists that banks do not mitigate credit policy.
Another version, which may explain the increase in disbursements of loans to borrowers with high PTI technical, say representatives of the Central Bank. Since the beginning of 2019 the credit organization began to introduce the model of calculation of the maximum debt burden of the borrowers approved by the Bank of Russia. It may differ from that used by the organization, and the difference in estimates appeared just at data for the first quarter. "Maybe it's not the growth [of the handout], and better identification of this kind of loans on the balance sheets," — says Yudaeva.
the Refinement of methods of calculation, indeed, could give such effect, agrees associate Director on Bank ratings "Expert RA" Catherine Shurigina. "Banks are now quite limited in the granting of loans to borrowers zakreditovannym as to compensate for risks on such loans will be forced to set a higher rate and, consequently, generate a greater volume of reserves that is tied to the value of UCS," explains the analyst.
the Specter of the crisis in 2014
the Increased debt burden of the population in the whole country is still low, said Bank of Russia Chairman Elvira Nabiullina, speaking with the report in the state Duma. But even the modest figures allow us to speak about the risk of recurrence consumer crisis, 2014.
In 2018, an indicator reflecting the level of servicing costs for unsecured loans in relation to the income of the population, accelerated to 8.1%, which is close to the peak of five years ago to 9%. "We expect that this year it will reach the final level in 2014, and perhaps will surpass it, if we fail to reverse this trend to the fast growth of lending," — warned Yudaeva. Moreover, the overall rate for the country is low, according to the Central Bank. Speaking of over-indebtedness only borrowers, and not the entire population, citizens spend 44% of their income for payments on loans. This gives grounds for mandatory calculation of PD, Nabiullina stressed.
Lend now, not to refuse then
the Bank of Russia intends to introduce mandatory rating of debt burden of the borrowers since October 1, 2019. PTI will be applied when the results of all credits or loans, including secured, in the amount of 10 thousand rubles. The basis for calculation will be the client's obligation to all creditors, and not to a specific Bank. It is assumed that the limit load level will be 50% of the monthly income.
"the Imposition of restrictions on some standardized for all banks the method of calculation of the PTI would be likely to the fact that some paying customers can't get loans from banks," — says Shabashkevich. According to him, the share of such clients can reach 20-30%.
According to NCB on April 1, 11,3% of borrowers spend on loans more than half of their monthly income. Akreditavimo customers in Russia are those who work in medicine and pharmacy (average PTI 32.9 percent). The high debt load of social workers (32.8 per cent), security guards (30%) and self-employed (29.3 per cent).
the Clients that are heavily saddled with debt, banks and so try not to lend emphasizes Shabashkevich. Experts fear that after the introduction of PTI worsen the position of individual groups of potential borrowers. "The strike of the workers, receiving the "gray" wages are not officially employed, spouses, and relatives (for them more complicated procedure, as the added "co-borrower"). Banks will not always be profitable to complicate the procedure of assessing the burden of such segments, for example, the use of the co-borrower may result in very expensive improvements in the processes. It will be easier to refuse a loan", — says Vice-President of "Renaissance Credit". If he did not believe that the banks are now playing a proactive — make loans less reliable customers, while it is not prohibited.
this tactic does not bear significant benefits, agrees Lagutkin. "In store credits cannot be issued, they will be amortised in a short time, and the risk will be significantly higher than the other portfolio that does not have creditors, as it destroys the financial model," explains the General Director of BCI "Equifax". He did not believe that the introduction of PTI will reduce the availability of loans for the population. The granting of loans to customers with a high PD is associated with elevated risk factors for the allocation of capital, but banks have a margin of safety there. "Currently the majority of retail lenders to the problems with capital is not observed, therefore they should not dramatically reduce the activity of retail lending", — sums up the expert.
Yulia KOSHKINA, Banki.ru
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