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Reduction in income affected not only the poorest Russians, but also a more prosperous rentiers and entrepreneurs. And this trend continues.
Investors lost interest
In 2018 in the structure of incomes of the population there was a decrease in the share of property income — from 5.4% to 4.9%, according to the overview "Comments about the state and business", HSE.
the Central Bank also noted the decline in income from property in its report for the year 2018. "Incomes, including property incomes, in real terms, declined. The growth rate of real disposable money incomes of the population in 2018 was low and amounted to 0.1%," — said in the report.
According to the Deputy Director of the Institute "development Center" NRU "Higher school of Economics" Svetlana Misikhina, the decline in the share of property income has played the role of two factors. "We are talking about structural changes, as increased the share of wages (in the past year strongly growing public sector wages), and all other parts structurally decreased. The second reason is the actual decrease. As decreased rates on deposits, income, accordingly, was reduced," she said.
"In the first quarter of 2019, this trend continued. Property income in the first quarter of 2019 was 3.9% and in the first quarter of 2018, the figure was 4.1 percent," added Misikhina.
Most of the Russian investor is investors, so reducing interest rates on deposits has affected the income of the property, said the head of a group of analysts CAPT (Center Analytics and financial technology) mark in real.
"about two thirds of household savings are concentrated in Bank deposits — the most simple and popular savings tool. Therefore, property income is primarily interest on Bank deposits. In the period of high inflation and high Central Bank's key rate, the average yield of deposits was quite high, reaching 13% for a period of more than a year, according to the Central Bank. Then she began to decline only in 2018, it decreased from 6.7% in January to 6% in September, decreasing the key interest rate. Therefore, despite the overall growth of deposits by 6.5% in 2018, the income thereon in the amount decreased. This is the main reason for the reduction in the share of income from property in monetary income of the population," said Goikhman.
the owners of the real estate income has not declined, says the Deputy Director of the Department of rental apartments "INKOM-real Estate" Oksana Polyakova. "On the assumption that demand and prices in the capital rental market is stable, we have not seen a decline in the profitability of renting apartments for rent. While it is clear that the reduction in purchasing power of the ruble and the rise in prices of consumer basket eat the income of the population," she said.
property Owners also felt the pressure in connection with the new order of calculation of tax on property of physical persons, drew attention to the financial analyst of the company "Finist" Irina Lanis. "The order of calculation involves the use of higher coefficients when calculating the amount of tax. It is quite clear the numbers — revenues to the budget tax on property of natural persons increased by 15.1%," — said of Lanis.
"Modern Russian rentiers are divided into several types. Pensioners who have property and savings, and the wealthy at the age of 35-40 years, who receive dividends and interest on shares and deposits. Every year it becomes more and more investors who receive income from securities," — notes Director of sales office "BCS" Vyacheslav Abramov.
All the risks came
one of the trends that the experts HSE — reducing the proportion of income from entrepreneurial activities. In 2017, it decreased by 0.2 percentage points, from 7.8% to 7.6%, and in 2018, and by another 0.1 PP In 2014, the share of income from entrepreneurial activities accounted for 8.4% of the cash income of the population, in 2018, to 7.5%.
"Indeed, revenues from entrepreneurial activities and income of the rentier could change for the worse, as if to take into consideration the risks that affect the income of the rentiers, they came. For 2018 we received the devaluation of the ruble by more than 20%, the new sanctions from the West, the decline in investment demand from foreigners. And despite the fact that we held the world Cup. Without such an international event, the performance could be even more modest," — said a leading analyst of the "Expert plus" Maria Salnikova.
Entrepreneurs and their incomes have suffered from the General stagnation in the economy, points out Svetlana Misikhina. "In 2018, entrepreneurial activity declined, with declining income people trying to save money and buy less, respectively, in services and trade big profits can not be", — said the expert.
the Viability of new domestic enterprises is very low, said Irina of Lanis. "The average age of the enterprise in Russia, for example, is only one year. According to the statistics of Rosstat, in 2017, Russia has opened 359 of thousands of new companies, and in the same year closed 510 of thousands of businesses. Over the past year, figures provided by FinExpertiza, even worse: it was open only 290 thousand enterprises, while closed over 600 thousand. This is an indicator of a very bad investment climate. Companies do not live up to its five-year anniversary, in the fourth year of its existence, almost all die, and remain a unit. It turns out that the number of new entrepreneurs is reduced. We're not talking about reorganization when closes one legal entity and open another for any reason. We are now seeing a negative trend — the number of new enterprises is more than twice lower than the number closed," said Lanis.
According to Goihman, in recent years, after the crisis of 2014, marked by increasing difficulties in the private sector, reducing its profitability. Many people who receive income from the business, whether private customers or small and medium enterprises, faced with lower revenues, curtail or reduce activity. Thus, the share of income from entrepreneurship decreases relative to the cash income of the population as a whole. This is one of the factors undermining development opportunities in the economy through private initiative, independent of employment, filling of small "niches" in the market, flexibly adapted to consumer demand, forming a healthy competition.
"Businessmen in Russia has faced a number of challenges in recent years. This decrease in consumer demand due to a decrease in real disposable income, and increased tax pressure and complicated situation in international trade. Some entrepreneurs are forced to reduce their scale, and some even leave the market," says first Vice-President of "OPORA Russia" Paul Segal.
Anna PONOMAREVA, Banki.ru
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