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Vladimir rojankovski, LIFA, expert "International financial center", specially for "Russian Newspapers":
- the opinions of foreign and Russian economic analysts concerning the further dynamics of the ruble was divided almost equally: a small margin is dominated by optimists. This is facilitated by events that will happen next week.
for Example, on Wednesday (July 24) will be released in US important figures on the foreign trade balance of the United States, which we believe will be another point on the graph of dependence of excess strengthening of the dollar from the real prospects of victory in trade wars trump.
on Friday released preliminary data on US GDP for the second quarter, which will be perceived in the same vein. But really, the focus will remain semi-annual corporate financial statements, which should also shed light on the question of how the dollar exchange rate to world currencies uncomfortable for the sale of such multinational corporations as Amazon, Johnson & Johnson, Halliburton, Intel and 3M. In our view, the relationship of the dollar to other currencies will increase, which will give the signal to resume course correction "American." This, in turn, will lead to another round of ruble strengthening, which can move up to 61.90 per dollar.
However, after the meeting of the monetary policy of the Bank of Russia on July 26, investors may be disappointed. So the last Friday of July is likely to be a bad day for the ruble, which will unfold in the opposite direction.
, Bullish break fail
If to speak objectively about the list of explicit and implicit risks for the ruble, in addition to oil and sanctions factors you should always remember about the so-called "budget rule", in which the CBR is now a free hand to buy foreign currency for the Ministry of Finance.
However, these considerations are significant only in the case that correction of the dollar against foreign currencies, despite the wish of Donald trump and the growing hints of the Chairman of the fed Jerome Powell, and will not happen.
In the baseline scenario, providing for the correction of "green" up to 95 on the DXY dollar index to end of July, even very energetic purchases, the Central Bank will not be able to break the bullish trend in the domestic currency. Although, of course, will have a deterrent effect on the rate of consolidation on the way to the psychologically significant mark of 60 rubles per dollar.
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