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The Average Russian borrower to repay the obligations to the Bank, it will take almost 11 monthly salaries (five years ago — not more than seven). In 2014 the debt load of the citizens increased by 1.5 times. This conclusion is contained in the review of the debt load of the population, prepared by the SRO NAPCA specially for "Izvestia". With approximately 2.3 million borrowers after the loan payments have to be content with the subsistence minimum, since debt obligations "eat" half of the already low income. Another 4.7 million people on life remains little more than. Thus, almost 10% of people with loans, or teetering at the poverty line or are at risk, because only from the beginning of year the debts have grown five times faster than revenues. More and more people fall into credit bondage, over and over borrowing to repay previous loans. Experts believe that efforts by the Central Bank, which constantly introduces measures to curb growth of consumer lending, is not enough — necessary, and instruments of social policy to improve income.
For the first five months of 2019, the volume of Bank lending to individuals has reached 16 trillion, and the growth compared to the same period in 2018 amounted to 23%, reminded analysts NAPCA. At the moment, according to a survey, 75% of the economically active population are credit obligations that, in principle, corresponds to the indicators of developed countries. However, the cause for concern.
"today, the Russian average Bank customers, it will take almost 11 monthly salaries to repay obligations to the credit organization", — the authors of the document.
the Year before, while maintaining such a scheme of payment of the debt it took 9-10 monthly wages, and five years ago — no more than seven.
the survey notes that about 10% of borrowers (about 7 million people) have an income below 50 thousand rubles and forced to give up on loan repayment for more than half of their monthly income. And 2.3 million Bank customers and does operate on a monthly income of 20 thousand rubles — after payment it is close to the subsistence level in the region within 11-12 thousand roubles, which in Russia is called "poverty line".
— currently, as in the last five years, there has been a decline in income, however this is not happening due to current credit obligations, but rather the reverse. The demand for borrowed funds increases because of falling revenues. If to forbid to give out credits for certain categories of citizens, the money from this "pocket" will not be, — explained the "Izvestia", the President of SRO NAPCA Elman Mehdiyev.
the Main analyst "BCS Premier" Anton Pokatovich also noted that demand for credit from the population is forced because of the negative downward trend in disposable income and wealth. Thus, according to Rosstat, in the first quarter of 2019, this figure decreased by 2.3% compared to the same period of 2018.
— the Most active loans citizens with low income who use borrowed funds as of the last available instrument for the maintenance of living standards. In turn, this leads to an increase in the burden of compulsory payments, which increases pressure on the already low incomes of people. Thus, we see the twisting of "arc helix" — the expert believes.
He was confident that if the process will continue in the future two years it can lead to serious negative social consequences.
the Representatives of the Central Bank has repeatedly expressed concern it is the structure of consumer loans, when the greatest burden falls on the most vulnerable citizens. If you look overall at the level of the debt burden — about 10% (that's how much the average borrower sends from income for payments on loans), in Russia it is even lower than in other countries.
— But if we consider this figure only for those who take loans then they have to spent on repayment of loans 44% of its revenue — said in early July at the International financial Congress (IFC) in Saint-Petersburg the Chairman of the Central Bank Elvira Nabiullina.
to Take on 124 salaries
the Degree of debt load varies not only among different categories of citizens, but also in the regional context. With a higher average loan per capita in the subject, as a rule, are not a reflection of the level of debt load. As follows from the overview of NAPCA, the highest amount of debt per capita recorded in Yamalo-Nenets (436,3 thousand rubles), Khanty-Mansiysk (420,2 thousand rubles), Nenets (328,2 thousand) Autonomous areas, the Republic of Sakha-Yakutia (358 thousand) and Tyumen, Moscow and Magadan regions (more than 300 thousand rubles). And this is while the average for the country in 207,3 thousand rubles.
If you look at the list of regions where the term of payment on credit obligations exceeds the national average figure of 11 months, then among the "leaders" are quite different regions. And here you can talk about the largest debt load. The longest to pay its debts accounts to residents of Tuva. To repay the loan, they will need 124 salaries, with an average loan amount of 251 thousand.
20 More of the wages to repay the debt should the residents of the Kalmykia Republic (32), the Altai Republic (26), Chuvash Republic and Karachay-Cherkessia (24), Kurgan region (22), the Jewish Autonomous region (21). To pay to the Bank on 20 salaries need to borrowers from the Irkutsk region, the Republic of Mari El and Khakassia.
Is due to the fact that the gap between the average income and the minimum wage insignificant, — analysts explain the NAPCA.
Indeed, there are a number of regions with the highest average amount on the borrower but repayment of their residents are from five to nine salary is Chukotka and Yamalo-Nenets Autonomous district, Moscow, Sakhalin oblast and the Republic of Tatarstan.
a Cold shower from the controller
To remedy the situation in the market of consumer crediting, the Central Bank constantly introduces measures to cool the pace of growth in especially risky for citizens lending. For example, organizations that issue loans to citizens, in the autumn waiting for the next portion of innovations.
— 1 October 2019 the credit organization will be required to carry out the calculation of the indicator of debt burden of a borrower (PD) on newly granted loans to natural persons. In order to discourage the provision of unsecured consumer loans to borrowers with a high debt burden, and increase the stock of capital of banks, the Bank of Russia took a decision on loans with a PD of more than 50% extra to increase the allowances to the risk factors compared to the current scale of allowances, — reminded in a press-service of the Central Bank.
As emphasized in his speech at the IFC Elvira Nabiullina, such a measure would limit the growth of debt load citizens: if people got more loans than it can serve, it threatens his personal well-being and for banks is a threat to their sustainability.
According to Anton Pokatovich cooling measures of the Central Bank at the moment are mostly preventive in relation to banks and aimed to strengthen stability of the banking sector.
— Like "cautious containment" will not lead to a rapid decline in the growth rate of credit expansion in the consumer segment, but will have a more significant impact in the long term, predicts analyst "BKS the Prime Minister".
He believes that significant changes will occur after the state returns to the stimulation of the social sphere and consumer demand through raising incomes.
the curator of the project of the Ministry of Finance according to Anna Zelentsova, financial literacy also believes that in addition to the measures of the Central Bank to tighten regulation of MFIs, which need to be continued, and necessary instruments of social policy.
— Important measures to increase income of the population, including through support of entrepreneurship, — said the expert. — It is important to analyze and target, what social groups most at risk. For example, if they are large families, so for them it is important to take comprehensive measures for support, protection and financial education.
in addition, according to Anna Zelentsova, it is necessary to complete the work on simplification of procedures of bankruptcy in relation to people with low incomes.
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