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To understand and forgive: how the government can save indebted Russians themes of the day 24.07.2019 at 05:31

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Ministry of economic development seriously develops measures to support indebted citizens. Otherwise, the "explosion" in the market of consumer crediting can not be avoided, the head of the Ministry Maxim Oreshkin. Is there a way to "extract the detonator"?

During the year, the debt of the Russian borrower on average increased by several tens of thousands of rubles, said the Minister of economic development Maxim Oreshkin in an interview to "Echo of Moscow". According to estimates of officials, the situation is close to critical, and in 2021, Russia may face a collapse in the market of consumer crediting. To prevent this, the government intends to lend a helping hand to some borrowers.

"We are now preparing such proposals... what are the mechanisms to offer to specific people who are in difficult life situation, she would slowly emerge", — said the Minister. Specific actions he has not announced, saying that the public is to take already developed ideas, but hinted: Russian borrowers had already helped. For example, payment of foreign currency mortgages in the years 2015-2017.

What recovery options that the authorities can offer insolvent clients at this time? And how big can be a new program?

their Name is Legion

As noted Oreshkin, about a third of Russian borrowers ' spend loan payments more than 60% of their monthly income. From the Minister it is unclear how much this of citizens, what their income and how successfully they cope with debt burden.

to Establish the exact number of borrowers in the country not just the official statistics reflect only the volume of loans and number of loans. According to United credit Bureau (OKB), now about 57,7 million Russians have open loans. Credit history Bureau "Equifax" reported 36.8 million borrowers.

the Behavior of those who borrow money from banks, has changed, says the Director of market research Center of the issek, national research UNIVERSITY "HSE" George Ostapkovich. Over the past year in the country gradually formed a specific group of "professional borrowers," he wrote in a recent review. These customers take loans are not for major purchases, and to maintain the current consumption and the payment of existing debts. The trend has affected mainly the population with low incomes. In conversation with the correspondent Ostapkovich did not specify what percentage of "professional borrowers," the total mass of customers.

To assess the debt load of the citizen index is used the PTI (payment to income — ratio of monthly loan payments to income). PTI above 50-60% — is almost default level, says marketing Director of National Bureau of credit histories (NBCH) Alexey Volkov. According to the NCB in April 2019, in Russia there are 5.8% of troubled borrowers and 2.6 million people. The number of such borrowers is slightly reduced in recent months, said Volkov.

estimated OKB, akreditavimo can be considered nearly 8.5 million Russians. This is 14.6% of the total number of borrowers with existing loans.

last Fall about 15-20% of clients had a high loan payments, says senior researcher of the Laboratory for studies in economic sociology, national research UNIVERSITY "HSE" Olga Cousin. It does not exclude, that by the present moment the situation could change.

Even rough estimates provide an understanding of: indebted citizens in Russia more than the exchange of food. The latter, according to "Kommersant", there were about 17 thousand people, but the restructuring could count on 2 thousand It is about the second state program of support of borrowers 2 billion rubles. The first program on the 4.5 billion rubles were distributed not only on the currency but also on ruble loans. There is banks restructured 18.5 thousand mortgage loans.

Four of a lifeline for troubled borrowers suggested four scenarios, which theoretically can be realized for customer support with a high debt load:

Restructuring problem loans

This approach was applied in 2015-2017 to support mortgage borrowers. The interest rate on problem loans decreased to the preset parameter, and the portion compensated by the state. Use a similar approach for all borrowers with a high debt burden is unlikely, says chief economist of rating Agency "Expert RA" Anton tabah. "The scale of the problem are not the same. In addition, banks are changing credit policy", — said the analyst.

"Payment holidays" on all major loans

In 2019 the Russian lawmakers have adopted a law on "mortgage holidays", which involves the postponement of payments for borrowers who are in difficult life situation. For example, seriously ill and permanently lost their jobs. After the "vacation" payments must continue according to the original terms of the contract, missed contributions will be removed at the end of the loan term. To apply for a postponement of the Russians will be able from 1 August. To extend this measure on large unsecured loans is not worth it, I think the sides of the Unlike mortgages, these loans is short, says the Tabs. He also reminds that the option of "payment vacation" for different credit products already offered by many players.

to Give respite to some of the food is justified, because with such a long term loan the borrower's income may be subject to significant fluctuations, agrees head of Bank ratings Agency "NKR" Mikhail Doronkin. But "mortgage holidays" to solve not only this problem. "Target "mortgage holidays" was not only to maintain a potentially "problematic" borrowers, but also stimulate the demand for mortgages from certain groups of citizens. In the case of unsecured potrebkreditovaniya is just the opposite task — to cool the market", — the expert continues.

to Write off the bad debts

In June, a similar measure was taken by the authorities of Kazakhstan. President Kassym-Jomart Tokayev signed a decree on repayment of consumer unsecured loans due to the budget. Debt amount of the citizen should not exceed 300 thousand tenge, or about 50 thousand rubles. Relief affected about 500 thousand inhabitants of the country.

"is a structural division of the Inaugural initiative was received with skepticism — as an example of moral hazard. But it is noteworthy that there are saving and the banks, supporting citizens, which is unusual," — says Tabah. He drew attention that the selection of candidates for debt relief in Kazakhstan was quite hard, and those who will receive assistance for several years forbidden to take loans. According to Tabaha, the Russian authorities may also take such a step, but then the question arises, why is it so bad loans were issued.

to support people who can not cope with payment obligations, is a very dangerous approach, rector of the Russian economic school Ruben Enikolopov. "If the government announces such a program, it almost pushes people to ensure that they were getting more loans, hoping to help the state," — says the expert. Case support the exchange of food is exceptional, since these borrowers have suffered from the General macroeconomic shock.

the Extension of "payment holidays," restructuring or decommissioning — all non-market methods of solving problems, said a portfolio Manager at "OTKRITIE Broker" Timur Nigmatullin. "The outcome of their application one: the growth of interest rates", — says the expert.

Simplifying and cheapening the procedure of personal bankruptcy

the Russians were able to initiate its own bankruptcy in 2015. Since then procedure have been about 80 thousand citizens, according to the Uniform Federal register of data on bankruptcy. Not everyone has enough money to declare themselves financially insolvent, stated the experts of the project "Medresurs" in the review for the first half of 2019. The idea is to simplify and reduce the cost of bankruptcy has long been discussed. One of the latest versions of the bill in December last year published the economic development Ministry. The Agency had proposed the use of simplified bankruptcy with debts of more than 50 thousand rubles.

the Change is long overdue, says tabah. "This bankruptcy has become an elite finuslug — cost 70-100 thousand rubles in the regions makes bankruptcy prohibitively expensive", — said the interlocutor of the Financial analyst "BCS Premier" Sergei Dejneka doubt that the procedure of personal bankruptcy can radically simplify and reduce the cost: "the Mechanism involves not only the judicial process but also the job of the liquidator".

And whether you want to save someone?

the Various programs to support borrowers — treating the symptoms, not the disease, says Olga Kuzina from the Higher school of Economics. According to the economist, to reduce the risk of a possible "explosion" in the market of consumer crediting is possible only at the expense of structural changes.

Banks should gradually shift from unsecured consumer loans to collateral. Prevention of mass defaults can also be to increase the welfare of the population: if the economy is growing and real incomes, too, to pay for loans they never stop.

the Market of consumer crediting shows some signs of overheating, agrees with the Minister Oreshkin Mikhail Doronkin of NKR. However, the risk of "explosion" the expert does not see "Undertaken by the Bank of Russia of measures, in our opinion, is sufficient for cooling in the next year and a half. The regulator has in this matter quite strongly, as evidenced by the already announced initiatives, including potential restrictions on the issuance of unsecured long loans, as well as the introduction of limits on loans to borrowers with a high debt load." Doronkin, however, does not exclude the occurrence of problems with debt servicing of physical persons in some banks or regions.

the Ministry of economic development focuses too exclusively on the rise of nominal volume of household debt, believes Nigmatullin of the company "Opening Broker". He draws attention to the fact that the debt load of the population as a percentage of GDP has declined markedly and is 4.9% against a peak of 5.6% in mid-2014. In addition, Russia has not experienced a significant increase in unemployment, which could affect the growth of delay. The analyst does not exclude that the Ministry of economic development, criticizing the Central Bank, is trying to solve the problem is not the debt burden, and weak growth in real incomes and investment in fixed capital.

Shock in consumer lending may indeed increase the depth of economic contraction in the event of a negative scenario, said the Deputy Director of group of sovereign ratings and prediction ACRE Dmitry Kulikov. "In the event of a market shock makes sense to offer support. And efficiency can depend not only on support but on its orientation. A more healthy situation, where support is aimed at households with liquidity problems, not solvency over the long run," explains the expert. According to his estimates, the decline in lending can compress consumer spending by about 5%, which is comparable to 2 percentage points of GDP.

"However, this spontaneous stop would not — negotiated Kulikov — will require a relatively strong external shock to banks reacted to him, and not only on the observable creditworthiness of borrowers. For us consumer lending — not the core stress scenarios, and one of its possible parts".