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Business / Finance

The Outlook on EUR/USD and GBP/USD on August 16. Retail trade in Britain – a reason for optimism. But only at first glance

RSS feed for Forex Review 16.08.2019 at 06:11

Daily analytical reviews of the Forex market

EUR/USD – 4H.

the EUR/USD Pair on 4-hour chart continues the process of falling and completed the closing under the level of correction 100.0% - 1,1107. In total, 16 Aug falling of quotations can be continued towards the next resistance levels to 127.2% - at 1.1025. Divergence of the indicators for the pair Euro-dollar today no. Economic reports came out yesterday in Britain and America, so traders of the Euro-dollar remained on dry rations. Several new messages Donald trump about a trade war with China, in particular, saying "that the war would be short," not very much interested in the Forex market. The main factor of the rising dollar and falling Euro remains skewed in the power of monetary policy in favor of the fed. The last days and weeks have shown that a trade war is having a negative impact on the us economy and China stock market in both countries is often closed in the red, June was a disappointing month in the United States. And even with all these problems, the American currency lost ground against the Euro. Because in the EU, things are not better than in America, but much worse. Industrial production in negative territory, inflation is at 1.1% and 1.3%, and this despite the regular fall of the Euro, which positively affects any inflation. If the Euro is not dropping, inflation was in the region of 0.7% to 1.0%. While the ECB is going to cut rates and revive the quantitative easing program.

the Fibo Grid built on the extrema of may 23, 2019 June 25, 2019.

the Forecast for EUR/USD and the recommendations of traders:

EUR/USD has completed the closing under the level of correction 100.0% - 1,1107. I recommend today the EUR / USD with the target at 1.1025 with a Stop Loss level above the level 1,1107. I recommend to buy the pair with the purpose 1,1180 and Stop Loss level under 1,1107 if will close above the level of correction 100.0%.

GBP/USD – 4H.

the Confrontation between Boris Johnson Jeremy Corbyn is gaining momentum. The other day the leader of the labour party Mr. Corbin said that the current government has no authority to implement Brexit "No Deal" in principle, and certainly without the approval of Parliament. I have repeatedly put this question bluntly: how Boris Johnson is going to deliver Brexit without the support of Parliament and without pausing it? It seems that this question interests not only me. Jeremy Corbyn is going to give a vote of confidence in Mr. Johnson and replace him, thus, as Prime Minister. Corbin himself is going to take his place, but only for a limited time, which is enough to prevent uncontrolled Brexit. Also, Jeremy Corbyn, in the case of support of the Parliament, intends to launch a second referendum, which will be called "hear" the will of every British citizen on the issue of "How the country should leave the EU and whether at all." As we all see, 80 days before the date Brexit'a in the political circles of great Britain, the topics discussed are not about how the country will live outside the EU, and "Brexit what", "how to dismiss a Prime Minister", "how to hold a second referendum". Well GBP/USD is constantly updating its lows. Yesterday the pound managed to grow thanks to a strong economic report on retail sales. However, today there is a bearish divergence at the CCI indicator that allows traders to expect a reversal in favor of the us dollar and the resumption of the fall in the direction of the correctional level of 161.8% - 1,1853.

the Fibo Grid built on the extrema of January 3, 2019 and 13 March 2019.

GBP/USD – 1H.

On the hourly chart, the GBP / USD trades above the level of Fibonacci 261.8%. However, for the analysis and prediction of the movement is better now to consider the 4-hour chart, as there the picture is more clearly and understandable.

the Fibo Grid built on the extremes of 18 June 2019 25 June 2019.

the Forecast for GBP/USD, and recommendations for traders:

GBP/USD may resume the process of falling. Thus, I recommend to sell the pair with target 1,1853, with a Stop Loss above the peak of the bearish divergence. I recommend to buy the pair with the purpose 1,2437 and Stop Loss level below the level to 127.2% (4 hour chart), if it is made closing above the level of 1.2180.

the Material has been provided by InstaForex company - www.instaforex.com