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Analysis on EUR/USD and GBP/USD for August 16. Recent months, Mario Draghi at the helm of the ECB can take place under the auspices of the global easing

RSS feed for Forex Review 16.08.2019 at 08:04

Daily analytical reviews of the Forex market


Thursday, August 15, ended for the pair EUR/USD decrease by 30 b.p. thus, the proposed wave b is very extended relative to the size of wave a. At the same time, current wave marking remains in force, so far... the Main enemy of the current wave pattern is a background. Yesterday, retail sales in the USA showed a higher growth in July than expected to see the markets. This supported the dollar. Yesterday made a speech the head of the Bank of Finland and member of the Board of Directors of the ECB, Olli Rehn. He stated that at the next ECB meeting will be announced not only to reduce the key rate at 0.1 percent, but significant purchases of bonds under quantitative easing. To the monetary Committee of the ECB will come due to the looming global recession, and the growth of threats and risks to the global economy in recent times. In addition, the program of long-term crediting of commercial banks TLTRO may be more convenient and beneficial to banks, as it can increase the terms of loans or decrease the interest rate. However, one way or another, and any easing in monetary policy is evidence of the weakness of the economy and its need to stimulate. This is a negative point for the Euro, and that currency Union may continue to fall.

the Goal for purchases:

1,1264 – 61.8% according to Fibonacci

1,1322 – 76.4% according to Fibonacci

the Goal for sales:

1,1027 – 0,0% according to Fibonacci

General conclusions and trading recommendations:

the Euro-dollar Pair continues building of upward trend channel. Thus, I recommend to buy the pair with targets located near the settlement marks 1,1264 and 1,1322 which is equal to 61.8% and 76.4% of Fibonacci, MACD signal up, based on the construction of a rising wave C. This script is valid till successful attempt to break a minimum of 1 August.


GBP/USD Aug 15, gained about 30 basis points and continues its sluggish departure from previous lows. At the moment the fifth wave e is treated as completed, but the news background before 31 October can lead again and again to complicate the downward part of the trend. Yesterday, the pound has received unexpected support from a report on retail sales in great Britain increased at the end of July by 3.3% yoy. However, not always be so carry on British currency. Let me remind you that the country is in political crisis and "the crisis Brexit'a". Yes, now it is possible to say that the whole process Brexit is also experiencing a profound crisis, because after 3 years even after the referendum it is unclear whether he Brexit, will remain at the helm of the country Boris Johnson, would not the Brexit... Thus, I do not rule out a new fall of the pound, but sell recommend it after a successful attempt to break the low of wave e.

the Goal for sales:

1,2056 – 323,6% of Fibonacci

1,1830 – 423.6% of Fibonacci

Purpose for purchase:

1,2783 – 0,0% according to Fibonacci

General conclusions and trading recommendations:

the Downward trend may become complicated even more. Despite the fact that the e wave appears to be complete, it may take more complicated form. Thus, according to the new signal MASD down recommend you consider selling a pair with targets placed near the mark 1,1830, which corresponds to 423.6% of Fibonacci. Better yet, wait for a break of the low of 12 August 1,2014.The material has been provided by InstaForex company -