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THE EUR/USD. September 4. The results of the day. Macroeconomic statistics supported the Euro

RSS feed for Forex Review 04.09.2019 at 15:43

Daily analytical reviews of the Forex market

4-hour timeframe

the Amplitude of the last 5 days (high-low): 25P – 51p – 98p – 39p – 53p.

the Average volatility over the last 5 days: 53p (medium).

the EUR/USD pair on Wednesday, September 4, fixed above the critical line Kijun-sen and continues an overall upward movement, which is now characterized as a movement, not as a correction. The first and most anticipated event of the day was the performance of Christine Lagarde to the Committee on economic and monetary Affairs of the European Parliament. Many traders feared that the rhetoric Lagarde will be similar to her performance last Friday, which brought the Euro down. However, this time the fears were unfounded. Christine Lagarde said that inflation in the EU will remain in the near future, substantially below the target level, the Eurozone economy may face new challenges, but also stated that it endorses the actions of the ECB governing Council, which retain accommodative monetary policy. Also the future head of the ECB urged not to exert strong pressure on innovative tools such as cryptocurrencies, with the goal to protect consumers. In General, interesting statement, but this time nothing interesting Lagarde reported, so they ignored her statement.

here's macroeconomic reports from the Eurozone unexpectedly supported the European currency. The index of business activity in the services sector Markit exceeded the forecasted value and was 53.5, a composite index made up from 51.9 in August, also better than market expectations. In addition, retail sales in the European Union in July was better than expected, – an increase of 2.2% instead of 2.0% yoy estimated earlier. Month-on-month figure showed a decline of 0.6%. Nevertheless, in General, can be described today's package as a positive statistics for the Euro, it is not surprising that its growth was continued today. As usual, the main question is how long will the strengthening of the European currency at this time? It is no secret that in the long term remains openly downtrend. The fundamental background remains extremely negative for the Euro. It is only in the past two days, the first us data have disappointed, and then European pleased. Add to this the impossibility of a permanent fall of one currency (Euro in our case) and the banal is oversold Euro/dollar with the desire of the bears to commit part of the profits on the short trades and get the current correction. But the overall situation has not changed. Moreover, tomorrow will be the ISM index for the US service sector and after tomorrow's GDP for the second quarter in the Eurozone and NonFarm Payrolls in the United States, and to top it weeks there will be a performance of Jerome Powell. Hardly possible with such a fundamental backdrop to expect a definite strengthening of the Euro.

the Technical picture of the pair shows the willingness of the bulls to continue to slowly increase their positions. However, when entering the available to traders is negative for the Euro information, the bulls will immediately stop the attack and withdraw from the market and the Euro once again to swoop down. Therefore, for buyers of a pair of very important for the next two days, strong macroeconomic statistics from overseas to do not be.

Trading recommendations:

EUR/USD continues the long-awaited correction. So now, technically, even become relevant long positions with targets 1,1076 and 1,1113, but small lots. Tomorrow and day after tomorrow it is recommended not to lose sight of all the important news, as it is possible to return the Forex market to sales of the currency pair EUR/USD.

in Addition to the technical picture should also consider the fundamental reports and time of their release.

trading recommendations:


Tenkan-sen – red line.

the Kijun-sen – blue line.

the Senkou span a – light brown dotted line.

the Senkou span B – light purple dotted line.

the Chinkou span – green line.

the Indicator Bollinger bands:

3 yellow lines.


the Red line and the histogram with white bars in the indicators ' window.The material has been provided by InstaForex company -