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, the Central Bank lowered the key rate to 7% to the lowest level since March 2014. Forbes surveyed analysts expect lower interest rates on loans and mortgages, and I believe that the Central Bank may continue easing monetary policy.
the Board of Directors of the Central Bank on 6 September lowered its key rate by 25 basis points to 7%. This is the minimum value over the past five and a half years.
the Decision was not a surprise for the market. The regulator for the meeting in July did not rule out further rate cut at a future meeting of the Board of Directors. Of the 36 surveyed by Bloomberg analysts predicted 35 rate reduction and only one said that it will remain unchanged.
Central Bank reduces the rate for the third time this year. What did the regulator this time? In an official statement, the Central Bank said that the risks of acceleration and deceleration of inflation to end the year balanced. The regulator has lowered the forecast of inflation by the end of the year from 4.2–4.7 to 4.0 to 4.5%. Further, as expected, the Bank of Russia, inflation will remain near 4 percent target. "With the development of the situation in the baseline forecast, the Bank of Russia will assess the feasibility of further reduction of the key rate on one of the next meetings of the Board of Directors", — stated in the message of the Central Bank.
the Rates on deposits and mortgages
the Central Bank Rate affects the cost of money in the economy. Accordingly, interest rates on loans and deposits are moving key. This year it so happened that the market does not have time to play the previous decisions of the regulator, say analysts interviewed by Forbes. With the recent decline, they predict a significant drop in Bank interest rates in the near future.
the Maximum rate on ruble deposits at top 10 Russian banks fell from 7.27 percent in June to 6.80% during the second half of August, it follows from the monitoring data of the Central Bank.
the Biggest banks this summer twice lowered mortgage rates. Until the end of the year they will drop to 9 to 9.5%, while in September the average level of mortgage rates was 10.2 percent, said Forbes chief analyst "BCS Premier" Anton Pokatovich. Even if the Central Bank rate will remain until the end of the year unchanged, Deposit rates likely to fall to 6.5% per annum, and in the case of a further decrease from the Central Bank, they will fall to 6-6. 3%, he predicted.
In the long term the stimulus will help the government to implement a plan to reduce mortgage rates to 8%. This is "the rare case when government promises are not just fulfilled, but done prematurely," wrote about this in his telegram.-the Director of analytical Department of "Loco-invest" Cyril Tremasov.
the Goal is to reduce the mortgage rate to 7.9%, the Cabinet laid in the national project "Housing and the urban environment". Pokatovich believes that the level of 8% on your mortgage can become a reality in the future 2021-2022 year.
loan Rates generally will fall to the end of the year 1-1. 5%, says economist for Russia and CIS "Renaissance Capital" Sophia Donets.
the Question of neutrality
a Reduced rate of 7% makes it relevant to the question, stop now slider easing cycle, reaching a neutral level of rates of 6-7%, i.e. the rate that does not affect inflation and other economic indicators.
Elvira Nabiullina has repeatedly pointed out that in 2020 the Bank of Russia can move to a neutral monetary policy.
Forbes Interviewed analysts believe that the Central Bank is unlikely to stop the easing cycle at the level of 7%, and, most likely, the level of neutral rates will be revised.
"Where is the neutral level of interest rates is an open question", — said the chief economist of Nordea Bank Tatiana Evdokimova. Further reduction of interest rates – one of the conditions for maintaining economic growth in 2020, she said.
the Level of the neutral rate is 5.5-6.5%, the below mentioned earlier, the Central Bank level, said Sophia Donets. On this basis, the regulator still has sufficient leeway to stimulate the economy, she believes. 6.5% rate can be achieved in the first quarter of 2020, and for 2020 will be 6.25%, predicts Donets.
According to the strategist of Sberbank in currency markets and interest rates Nicholas Minko, even if the ability to influence the economy through interest rate decreases, then the regulator will remain a set of measures dot regulatory standards for capital, liquidity and individual types of loans and classes of assets. In the case of urgent need, the Central Bank can conduct operations in the open markets, he told Forbes.
Lyudmila PETUKHOVA, Forbes Staff
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