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Business / Finance

THE EUR/USD. January 13. The results of the day. A new stumbling block in the negotiations between the us and China

Analytical reviews Forex 13.01.2020 at 16:32

Daily analytical reviews of the Forex market from InstaForex company

4-hour timeframe

the Amplitude of the last 5 days (high-low): 49p – 64p – 67p – 28P – 44p.

the Average volatility over the last 5 days: 51p (medium).

the First trading day of the week for the EUR/USD pair ends in a rising correction, which began on Friday. The Euro/dollar at the moment worked the critical line Kijun-sen, which is the primary goal of any correction, when we are talking about Ichimoku. Thus, traders may wait for either a bounce of the pair from this line, or its overcoming. The first option will allow the pair to resume downtrend, and we believe that this option is most likely. The second option will allow the correction to continue with a target line Senkou span B, which is even more the line Kijun-sen, and is also likely to rebound. Volatility in the first trading day of the week with an empty calendar macroeconomic events is absolutely minimal, a total of 25 points. Thus, any testing of any of the boundaries of the corridor of volatility and the question today.

Meanwhile, the markets continue to closely monitor events connected with the signing of a trade agreement between the us and China, the so-called "first phase" thereof. Today, January 13, in Washington there has arrived the head of the Chinese delegation, Vice Premier of the state Council of the PRC Liu he. The parties were expected today or tomorrow will put the signature under the very controversial agreement, which, it seems, should be the first step to reconciliation of the parties. "Contradictory" because, first, most of the details of this agreement are shrouded in mystery, and secondly, most of the States duties on Chinese imports will remain in effect. Cancelled is only a small fraction of the duties on goods with a total value of approximately USD 60 billion. Recall that all imports from China to the States exceeds $ 500 billion. But according to the same agreement, China agreed to significantly increase the volume of purchases of agricultural products in the United States, and both sides called completely different numbers. However, in any case, if the parties have put signatures under the agreement, it will be a momentous occasion. Himself Donald trump already stated that immediately after the signing of the "first phase", he will travel to China for negotiations on a "second phase".

by the Way, we would like to note how quickly calmed down skirmishes between Washington and Beijing regarding the adoption of the Uyghur and Hong Kong laws by the U.S. Congress. Beijing has voiced strong protests over these laws, accusing the States of meddling in China's internal Affairs, and simply stop doing it at some point. That is, it seems that the parties really important thing now is to agree on the completion of a trade war. But Washington meantime continues to "swing right". According to the latest information, the States intend to seek from the Chinese government of imposing sanctions on Iran in the form of refusal to purchase Iranian oil. On military conflict between America and Iran, we have already said several times. It only remains to add that, in principle, all the US sanctions have no special significance, as Iran can sell their oil wherever they want. In practice, 70% of Iranian oil goes to China. According to Stephen Mnuchin, "received from China, the money Iran was funding terrorist groups". Thus, the States of rejection by the largest consumer of Iranian oil. The Treasury Secretary also said: "Thanks to the sanctions, Washington was able to reduce the income of Iran from oil exports. Probably more than 95%". It is difficult to say how true this figure. And it's even harder to say why Beijing to go back to Washington. China has no conflict with Iran is not, accordingly, States need to offer something in return of rejection of Iranian oil. Will this new stumbling block, an obstacle in the signing of a trade agreement?

From a technical point of view, we continue to witness a correction, which could be completed tomorrow. As we can see today, the Euro/dollar failed to show any serious movement, but tomorrow it will be published US inflation for December, which is projected with another acceleration that can restore demand for the greenback on the currency market. Thus, against the trend we trade in any case is not recommended. So, we need to wait for fundamental factors that will complete the correction or, on the contrary, will give the bulls a great amount of strength for the formation of the uptrend.

Trading recommendations:

the EUR/USD Pair continues to be adjusted. So now, traders are advised to wait for the completion of correction and to resume trading down with the target level of support 1,1060, but the price must be below the line Kijun-sen. Consider buying the EUR/USD will not overcome informed traders are the lines of Senkou span B with the first order 1,1168 and 1,1188.

trading recommendations:

Ichimoku:

Tenkan-sen – red line.

the Kijun-sen – blue line.

the Senkou span a – light brown dotted line.

the Senkou span B – light purple dotted line.

the Chinkou span – green line.

the Indicator Bollinger bands:

3 yellow lines.

MACD:

the Red line and the histogram with white bars in the indicators ' window.

the Levels of support/resistance classical:

the Red and gray dotted lines with price tags.

the Pivot level:

the Yellow solid line.

the Levels of support/resistance, taking into account the volatility:

the Grey dotted line without price tags.

the Possible variants of price movement:

the Red and green arrows.The material has been provided by InstaForex company - www.instaforex.com