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The unemployment rate among the representatives of the Russian middle class grew in the fourth quarter of 2019 by 1 PP. compared with the same period of 2018 — from 10.9 to 11.9%. This is evidenced by the quarterly survey (there RBC), which is part of the research of Sberbank "Consumer index Ivanov," where Ivanov is considered as a conventional member of the middle class. Sberbank the study does not publish does not release the consumer sentiment index, which provides selected indicators.
In the third quarter of 2019, the analysts of the savings Bank recorded unemployment of the middle class at 11.8%. It is defined as the share of unemployed among the respondents of the savings Bank.
Unemployment is the second most common economic factor of anxiety among the respondents of "Ivanov Index", it was called 55% of respondents (versus 51% a year earlier). Leader corruption (62%), and in third place in the ranking of economic concerns — inflation (48%).
the Proportion of those who are afraid of dismissal, for the year, on the contrary, decreased from 46 to 42%, although compared to the third quarter (40%) saw an increase in concerned. 9.2% of respondents in the fourth quarter said that the busy part, but want to work full-time in the previous quarter was 8.1 percent. However, at the end of 2018, the figure was even higher — 9.5 per cent. The proportion of respondents who said their companies are hiring staff has dropped to 7% against 7.9% in the third quarter and 7.5% a year earlier.
In a press-service of Sberbank called the survey revealed the increasing level of unemployment and underemployment are insignificant, indicating that respondents in General have become more optimistic assessment of the prospects of their business employers. "In net terms, the assessment of the prospects of the business in the last quarter reached 13%. Its value increased in comparison with the third quarter of 2019 (6%) and fourth quarter of 2018 (5%), reaching its highest level in 2014", — noted in the savings Bank. This happened due to the improving evaluation of the prospect of large and small businesses, while the medium business had not changed.
Unemployment among the middle class could grow by two fundamental trends, says Professor of the Financial University under the government of Alexander Safonov. The first — long-term — a reduction in the number of jobs that occurs in industry, healthcare and education. In addition, reduced the number of small enterprises and individual entrepreneurs. "The second trend, which we received in 2019 — the transition to the new pension age. Due to the fact that the number of workers in the market has become more natural balance that existed before the demographic hole, ceases to act", — said Safonov.
"Ivanov Index" — a quarterly consumer confidence index. A survey developed by the research Agency Cint on behalf of Sberbank CIB and the methodology of the corresponding quarterly surveys of Rosstat and estimates of consumer confidence, applied in the EU. The study is based on a survey of 2.3 million people aged 18-65 years living in 164 Russian cities with population over 100 thousand people.
That is not counted in the unemployment rate
According to Rosstat, the unemployment rate in Russia is annually reduced. At the end of last year it amounted to 4.6 per cent in 2018 and 4.8%, reported the Ministry of economic development. President Vladimir Putin in November 2019, said that the unemployment rate reached its lowest level in modern Russian history.
According to the Director of the center for socio-political monitoring, Institute of social Sciences of Ranepa Andrew Pokey, the essential prerequisites for the growth of unemployment is not observed. Annual increase of 1 percentage point in unemployment estimates from participants in the "Ivanov Index" can stay within the statistical error, he said.
Rosstat in accordance with the definitions of the International labour organization considers unemployed those Russians over the age of 15 who do not have work, looking for it in the last month and are ready to start work within a week. The Russian statistics are not classifies as unemployed those who are desperate to find work and is simply not looking for it, though ready and willing to work, as well as those forced to work part-time for economic reasons.
In the survey of Rosstat, which are used in the study of unemployment, does not contain questions about income, RBC reported in the press service of the Ministry. Thus, to assess the level of unemployment among various income groups on the basis of published indices of Rosstat impossible.
In the United States in addition to the basic unemployment rate officially published data and on unemployment in the wider sense. These include the officially unemployed, people who are neither working nor looking for work but want and are willing to work and looking for work at least once in the last year of people desperate to find work, those who wanted and willing to work full time, but was forced to settle for part-time work. The result of extended unemployment in the US is usually several times higher than the official indicator: in January 2020, the rate of unemployment in the broad sense amounted to 6.9% (seasonally adjusted), while the official unemployment rate in the country is estimated at 3.6%.
Anna GALCHEV, Yuliya STAROSTINA, Timofey DZYADKO
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