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The basic May deflator of US personal consumer spending was 3.4% year-on-year (an increase of 0.5%).
The annual inflation rate is still the highest since April 1992. There are many inflationary risks, such as the ongoing supply chain failure and a shortage of workers in enterprises, which leads to increased costs.
Chart 1: Core Inflation at Multi-year Highs
Household incomes decreased by 2.0% mom, mainly due to separate federal incentive payments in the amount of $ 1,400 received in March - April. The level of household income remains much higher than the pre-pandemic level.
Households have reduced debt and increased cash, checks and term savings deposits by $ 3 trillion since the end of 2019. This could boost spending in the coming months and quarters. A significant increase in income from wages and other private sources. The restoration of jobs and an increase in wages can give a really powerful impetus to the rapidly growing consumer demand.
Graph 2: Household income level compared to February 2020 (US $ trillion)
Increase in spending on services
Personal expenses decreased by 0.4% on a monthly basis.
As shown in Figure 3, there is a transition from the purchase of physical goods (especially durable goods) to services. As the resumption of work gains momentum, we expect that more and more spending will be focused on services such as travel and recreation. This does not mean that spending should decrease significantly in other areas, as private sector income growth looks set to accelerate dramatically.
Graph 3: Household consumption levels
This material is provided for informational purposes only and cannot be considered as an offer or an incentive to conclude transactions with securities and other financial assets. The material is compiled on the basis of sources that JSC JSCB" CentroCredit " considers reliable. JSC JSCB "CentroCredit" is not responsible for the accuracy of the information provided. This material is the exclusive property of JSC JSCB "CentroCredit". Unauthorized copying, reproduction and distribution of this material, in part or in full, without the written permission of JSC JSCB "CentroCredit" is prohibited.
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